Author: roymorgansocial

US on track to sell us Virginia-class subs

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 5 : 23-Oct-24

Democrats congressional representative Joe Courtney has downplayed suggestions that the US government may adopt an alternative model for the AUKUS alliance. Veteran naval analyst Ronald O’Rourke recently proposed a so-called ‘Plan B’, whereby the US would retain ownership of Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines rather than selling them to Australia. O’Rourke contended that this would allow the federal government to redirect billions of dollars to other defence programs. Courtney says he is not aware of any discussions in Congress regarding the O’Rourke plan, and he contends that the current AUKUS arrangement largely has bipartisan support.

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DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Moronic Andrews reign blasted

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Original article by Alexi Demetriadi
The Australian – Page: 4 : 23-Oct-24

Former federal treasurer Peter Costello addressed the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship conference in Sydney on Tuesday. Costello described the government of former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews as the "most incompetent government in Australia"; amongst other things, he said the state government’s response to the pandemic was "moronic" and accused it of "rank posturing" by involving itself in federal issues such as treaty negotiations and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Costello, who stepped down as chairman of Nine Entertainment earlier in 2024, also criticised the growth of governments at local, state and federal level.

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ALLIANCE FOR RESPONSIBLE CITIZENSHIP

Queensland election: Widespread distrust of government and political parties defines the election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Oct-24

This week’s Queensland election is taking place amidst widespread distrust of government throughout the electorate. Importantly, Net Distrust in government in Queensland has been consistently worse than in the rest of Australia for over three years, according to the latest figures from the Roy Morgan Risk Monitor. Although levels of trust have been relatively stable over the last few years, and even increased since mid-2022 soon after the election of the current Albanese Government, it is vital to also understand the impact of distrust – which only Roy Morgan measures. The changes in distrust have been far more dramatic and have dropped to record lows over the last year, driving Net Distrust down significantly both nationally and in Queensland. Premier Steven Miles has scored more highly than Opposition leader David Crisafulli for both trust (3.8% cf. 1.7%) and for distrust (4.3% cf. 2.2%). Meanwhile, 20% of respondents say they trust the LNP, slightly more than the 18.7% that trust the ALP; only 6.1% trust One Nation and just 5.1% trust the Greens.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Investors call time on ASX’s record rally

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 23-Oct-24

The Australian sharemarket has retreated from the record high of 8,384.5 points that it reached last week. The pullback follows a gain of 20 per cent over the last year, although Wall Street has risen by 39 per cent over the same period. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200’s price-earnings ratio has risen from 14.4 times to 18.3 times over the last year. There is growing speculation that the market’s rally cannot be sustained, given that earnings growth is tipped to be flat in 2024 and just five per cent in 2025.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

$70bn class action case against BHP opens in London

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Original article by Hans van Leeuwen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 23-Oct-24

Britain’s High Court has commenced hearing a massive class action lawsuit against BHP over the Samarco iron ore tailings dam collapse in 2015. Law firm Pogust Goodhead is representing about 62,000 Brazilians in the class action. BHP and Vale jointly owned Samarco, which operated the Germano iron ore mine; a key issue that will be addressed during the first days of the hearing is whether Samarco was an independent and autonomous company, or whether BHP was effectively in control of the iron ore project and is therefore responsible for the tragedy that resulted in 19 deaths and an environmental disaster.

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BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, POGUST GOODHEAD, HIGH COURT OF ENGLAND AND WALES

Labor concerned Meta may sidestep obligations to pay for news as media bargaining code fight reignites

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Original article by Josh Butler, Amanda Meade
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 23-Oct-24

Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment have rejected a parliamentary committee’s recommendation to impose a ‘digital platform levy’ on big technology companies such as Google and Meta. The two media groups contend that rather than introducing a so-called ‘tech tax’, the federal government should use the existing provisions of the news media bargaining code to ‘designate’ such companies. Meta contends that the committee’s report ignores the realities of how its social media platforms work and the value they provide to news publishers.

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SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, META PLATFORMS INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.1pts to 87.5 – highest since January 2023 after negative sentiment subsides

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Oct-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week to 20 October. Consumer Confidence has broken out of the sub-85 range for the first time in 90 weeks, and it now at its highest since January 2023; Consumer Confidence is also now 9.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and 5.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in all five mainland States this week, with the largest increases in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Now 24% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). However, only 8% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since October 2022).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress eases for third straight month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Oct-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,724,000 mortgage holders (28.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in September 2024. This represents a decrease of 0.2% points on the June figures, prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts that increased household income for millions of Australians. However, modelling by Roy Morgan shows that the number of mortgages ‘At Risk’ will increase to new record highs in November and December if the RBA raises interest rates by 25 basis points in both months. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 917,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,082,000 (18.3% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

IMF inflation warning: World goes low as we stay high

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Oct-24

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report forecasts that Australia and Slovakia will be the only two advanced economies with headline inflation above three per cent by the end of 2025. The IMF expects Australia’s inflation rate to rise to 3.6 per cent by December 2025, as federal and state government cost-of-living relief is wound back. The IMF had previously forecast in April that Australia’s inflation rate would fall to 2.8 per cent in 2025. While some economists do not expect the Reserve Bank to begin reducing the cash rate until the second half of 2025, the IMF forecasts that other central banks will aggressively ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, the IMF now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2024, compared with its April forecast of 1.5 per cent growth.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Dutton calls on Thorpe to resign

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Original article by Paul Garvey, Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 5 : 23-Oct-24

Independent senator Lidia Thorpe may face a censure motion when the upper house sits in mid-November. However, shadow home affairs minister James Paterson says the measure is only symbolic, adding that Thorpe would probably wear it as a "badge of honour". Meanwhile, Opposition leader Peter Dutton says Thorpe’s disruption of a parliamentary reception for King Charles and Queen Camilla on Monday was "disrespectful". He adds that there is a very strong argument that Thorpe should resign in principle, given that she does not believe in the parliamentary system but receives a quarter of a million dollars a year from taxpayers. Thorpe is paid a base salary of $233,660 and an additional $25,702 for chairing a committee on so-called ‘forever chemicals’.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA