BANKS AND BANKING

Handouts row: Take a hike, says Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Thomas Henry
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-May-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.35 per cent yesterday will add to the pressure that families and businesses are already facing. He adds that the federal governments intends to play a helpful rather than harmful role in the fight against inflation. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has cautioned against giving households more money in next week’s budget, arguing that this would make it harder for the central bank to bring inflation under control. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the government should reduce public spending in the budget to help alleviate underlying inflation pressures, while also introducing reforms aimed at boosting productivity and capacity in the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Traders see end in sight for RBA rate rises

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Original article by Cecile Lefort, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-May-26

Money markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase official interest rates by another 25 basis points by September; at 4.6 per cent, the cash rate would be at its highest level since 2011. However, bond traders now expect just one more rate rise in 2026, with the chances of two more increases having been pared back from 80 per cent to 65 per cent. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says the RBA’s revised economic forecasts imply that its preferred measure of underlying inflation will return to its target of 2.5 per cent by February. He says this suggests that the central bank could switch to an easing bias in late 2026 or early 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Aussie dollar to fly as RBA goes it alone on rates

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-26

The US Federal Reserve, its British and Canadian counterparts and the European Central Bank are widely tipped to leave official interest rates on hold this week. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase the cash rate next week, for the third time in 2026; inflation data for March is likely to strengthen the case for another rate rise. Foreign exchange strategies note that the Australian dollar and local bonds are likely to benefit from the widening gap between domestic and international interest rates.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Card surcharge ban to lift fees, rates

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 & 17 : 1-Apr-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to ban credit and debit card surcharges from 1 October will provide cost-of-living relief for consumers and businesses. The federal government itself had previously committed only to banning debit card surcharges. The RBA estimates that the move will save consumers about $1.6bn a year; however, Alan Machet from Visa warns that credit card fees and interest rates will rise, while the RBA has conceded that some businesses may seek to offset the abolition of surcharges by increasing their prices. The central bank has also advised that the cap on interchange fees for credit cards will be reduced to 0.3 per cent of the value of a transaction, compared with 0.8 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, VISA INTERNATIONAL

RBA delivers recession warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA issues dire growth warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Feb-26

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest forecasts shows that the domestic economy is expected to grow by just 1.6 per cent in the year to June 2028. This is the central bank’s lowest medium-term growth outlook since it began releasing forecasts in 1990. Stephen Smith from Deloitte Access Economics notes that this compares with the Treasury’s growth forecast of 2.75 per cent in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook; he adds that a GDP hit of more than one percentage point would have "fairly material implications" for budget revenue forecasts. Meanwhile, Labor used question time on Monday to refute suggestions that rising government spending contributed to last week’s interest rate increase.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Treasurer under pressure to fix budget after RBA lifts rates for first time in two years

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Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Feb-26

The Opposition contends that Treasurer Jim Chalmers must accept responsibility for yesterday’s increase in official interest rates to 3.85 per cent. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien said in parliament that the 25 basis point increase is a direct consequence of the govermment’s "addiction to spending", arguing that it has kept inflation higher for longer. Chalmers has rejected suggestions that government spending has contributed to a rising inflation rate, noting that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement did not mention it. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has declined to commence on whether government spending is to blame for rising inflation, and noted that the central bank considers both private and public sector spending. The Reserve Bank now does not expect inflation to return to its target range of 2-3 per cent until mid-2028.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Overheating economy pushes RBA to uncomfortable hike talks

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Dec-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected, given the rise in both headline and underlying inflation in November. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has stated that the underlying momentum in the economy suggests that further interest rate cuts may not be needed. Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says his firm believes that the RBA may increase the cash rate in the September quarter, while Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura expects interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2026. Financial markets in turn have priced in the potential for two interest rate rises next year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA cautious on any further rate cuts

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Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Nov-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board meeting for November outline the circumstances under which it would consider further interest rate cuts. The minutes indicate that the RBA would only consider a rate cut if there is a material deterioration in the labour market or if households become more cautious about spending. The monetary policy board noted that inflationary pressures would be weaker under both scenarios, making interest rate cuts more likely. However, the RBA expects both the unemployment rate and economic growth to remain steady over the next several years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Unions to pursue above-CPI pay rises

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Nov-25

The Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s national secretary Steve Murphy has accused the Reserve Bank of being "out of touch" after it forecast that inflation will remain above its target range for at least six months and there will be negative real wages growth in 2026. He says the RBA blames workers, but "profit-driven price hikes" and "corporate greed" are the real problem. Murphy adds that despite the forecast increase in the inflation rate, the AMWU will be able to achieve real wages growth in upcoming negotiations for new enterprise agreements. The Electrical Trades Union’s national secretary Michael Wright says it also will continue to deliver real pay rises for its members.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, ELECTRICAL TRADES UNION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA