RBA may rethink tapering as lockdowns bite

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Jul-21

The Reserve Bank of Australia recently signalled that it will begin scaling back its bond-buying program in September, amid the nation’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, economists at a number of banks anticipate that the potential economic impact of the latest wave of lockdowns will prompt the central bank to delay plans to slash its bond-buying program by $1bn a week. Gareth Aird from the Commonwealth Bank says the RBA could potentially start to reduce its bond purchases in November.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX CCG

Reserve Bank cools expectations of rise in interest rates

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 9-Jul-21

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that it could begin tightening monetary policy in 2022. Lowe has told the Economics Society of Queensland that inflation must be "sustainably" within the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent before it will consider a rise in the official interest rate; he added that wage growth of at least three per cent is likely to be needed for inflation to reach the central bank’s target range, while wages growth is "materially" less than three per cent at present. George Tharenou of UBS expects the RBA to abandon its bond yield target in the second half of 2022, which would enable it to increase the cash rate in 2023.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Investors bring forward rate rise expectations

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 7-Jul-21

Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin tightening monetary policy in early 2023, and he has flagged a cash rate of 0.75 per cent by the end of that year. RBA governor Philip Lowe has previously reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain at 0.1 per cent until at least 2024, but he indicated in a statement on 6 July that this is now merely its "central scenario" and the conditions that could justify a rate rise could be met earlier than this. Interest rate futures pricing also suggests that the cash rate could begin rising earlier than expected.

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CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Data risk alert in NZ reserve bank file hack

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd, David Swan
The Australian – Page: 14 : 12-Jan-21

Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Adrian Orr says the central bank is treating a data breach as a top priority, and the National Cyber Security Centre has been informed of the incident. Orr says the hackers had targeted Accellion rather than the RBNZ’s own computer systems; Accellion provides a third-party file-sharing service which the central bank uses to share and store sensitive information. Spotless is among the Australian companies that were targeted by hackers in 2020, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned in June of a rise in cyber attacks in both the public and private sectors.

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RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, ACCELLION INCORPORATED, SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Retirees hit but ‘it’s for the good of all’

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 4-Nov-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that retirees and savers will be hard hit by the decision to reduce the cash rate to a record low of 0.1 per cent. However, Lowe contends that they need to be mindful of the "collective good", arguing that lower rates will benefit the broader community by supporting spending and creating jobs. Rice Warner’s executive director Michael Rice notes that retirees who are only partly self-funded will be particularly hard hit by the decline in deposit rates, and many will become more reliant on the age pension.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD

RBA’s shot in zero-sum rates game

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Nov-20

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has flagged the use of "additional monetary policy options" if necessary, after reducing the cash rate to a record low and announcing a quantitative easing program. Lowe has indicated that the cash rate will remain at 0.1 per cent for 3-5 years, while the RBA’s three-year bond rate target has also been reduced to 0.1 per cent. Meanwhile, former RBA board member John Edwards has hailed the "courageous" and "historic" decision to pursue quantitative easing. The central bank will purchase about $5bn worth of federal and state government bonds each week over the next six months.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA lays ground for Cup Day cut

Original article by David Rogers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 16-Oct-20

Expectations of an official interest rate cut in November have been heightened by comments made by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe. He has told the Citi Investment conference that further easing of monetary policy is likely to "get more traction" as the economy re-opens than it would have at the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak. Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank says the RBA is likely to reduce the cash rate from 0.25 per cent to 0.1 per cent in November, and expand its bond-buying program to include five and 10-year government bonds.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Shock and awe budget rate cut to cushion bumpy recovery

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Sep-20

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Guy Debelle has signalled that there could be a further reduction in the cash rate, which fell to a record low of 0.25 per cent in March. The next scheduled meeting of the central bank’s board is on 6 October, when the federal government will also hand down the Budget. National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster says the cash rate is likely to be reduced to 0.1 per cent on this day or in November. He adds that further cutting the cash rate may not do much to stimulate the economy or create jobs,

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Fed says rates will stay near zero until 2023

Original article by Nick Timiraos
The Australian – Page: 24 : 18-Sep-20

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, with all 17 central bank officials indicating that they expect interest rates to remain at a record low until at least the end of 2021. In addition, 13 of the Federal Reserve officials have indicated that interest rates are likely to remain at close to zero until the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the central bank officials now expect the US unemployment rate to average about 7-8 per cent in the December quarter.

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UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Fed takes a keen interest in RBA’s bond buying

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 18-Jun-20

The yield on three-year Australian government bonds has traded within a narrow range of 0.21 per cent to 0.28 per cent since March, when the Reserve Bank commenced a targeted bond-buying program aimed at keeping the yield at around 0.25 per cent. The success of yield curve control in Australia has prompted the US Federal Reserve to assess the strategy, although Stephen Halmarick from the Commonwealth Bank says it is unlikely to adopt this in the near-term. The Federal Reserve’s focus has been on buying a certain amount of bonds each month.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA