INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Bullock rebuffs Labor on rates

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Sep-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has reiterated that "domestic capacity pressures" have been the key driver of the inflation rate, rather than the Iran war. She notes that while the conflict in the Middle East has "made things much worse", there was already excess demand in the economy and the RBA had started increasing the cash rate before the war began. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has persistently claimed that the war has been the primary source of Australia’s inflation challenge, rather than government spending. Bullock has warned that the RBA may need to follow up yesterday’s increase in the cash rate with another one if it is to prevent high inflation from becoming embedded across the economy. Financial markets have fully priced in a rise in the cash rate by February 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA flags need for 5pc jobless rate

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Sep-26

Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently 4.5 per cent, but Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the central bank still considers the labour market to be "tight". Bullock has expressed her view that an unemployment rate of between 4.5 per cent and five per cent will "probably take enough heat out of the labour market" to ease pressure on inflation. Based on the latest jobs data, an unemployment rate of five per cent would mean that about 83,000 additional people would have to be out of work if the size of the labour force remains the same. Meanwhile, with the RBA’s monetary policy board widely tipped to increase the cash rate next week, Bullock has warned that the central bank’s focus must be on keeping inflation expectations in check.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA sees housing slump but no recession

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 & 26 : 9-Sep-26

Bond traders now consider the chances of an official interest rate rise in September to be about 70 per cent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s assistant governor Sarah Hunter has told a property summit that the central bank is still concerned about inflation, and its monetary policy board could increase the cash rate later this month. Hunter also said that the downturn in the housing market is hurting the broader economy, and it will result in lower dwelling construction activity in 2027 and 2028. However, she has rejected concerns that the housing market downturn will trigger a recession.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Key costs that rose 50pc in five years

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Original article by Anthony Keane
The Australian – Page: 4 : 26-Aug-26

Analysis of official price data for the last five years shows that the cost of some household products and services has risen significantly more than the overall inflation increase of 24 per cent over this period. The cost of household gas has risen by 48 per cent since mid-2021, while the price of cooking oil and fats is up 47 per cent; meanwhile, the average household is paying 38 per cent more for electricity than five years ago, while the price of both milk and coffee has risen by 35 per cent. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says inflation is likely to slow in coming months, but he warns that it will be "fairly painful" for households for at least the next year; he adds that the inflation outlook means the Reserve Bank is likely to increase the cash rate again by the end of 2026.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

El Nino to affect interest rates and some ASX stocks

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Original article by Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 26-Aug-26

The current El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean began in June and is expected to last well into 2027; it is likely to put upward pressure on food prices, and therefore Australia’s inflation rate. There are fears that it could become a ‘ Super El Nino’, and Citi commodity strategist Arkady Gevorkyan says this is the firm’s highest-conviction agricultural risk. Citi notes that Australian crops such as wheat, barley, and canola are most at risk from an El Nino event. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley says the metals market could be boosted if copper production in Chile and Zambia is impacted by El Nino.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Bullock rings alarm on living standards

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jul-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that slowing productivity growth is making the domestic economy more vulnerable to global shocks. She also stated that the nation’s living standards will continue to stagnate unless the issue of productivity is addressed. Bullock also said the RBA will be open to further interest rate rises if this is deemed necessary to achieve its mandate of keeping the unemployment rate as low as sustainably possible while returning inflation to its target range of 2-3 per cent. Inflation data for the June quarter will be released today, and could determine whether there is another official interest rate rise in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Price tumbles spread to all capital cities

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Original article by Thomas Henry, Noah Yim
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Jul-26

HSBC Australia’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says the bank’s central forecast is for house prices to fall by up to eight per cent nationally by the end of 2027, including 2-6 per cent next year. He adds that the pace of decline in June suggests that there is downside risk to HSBC’s central forecast, with Cotality’s home value index falling by 0.4 per cent nationally in June. Bloxham warns that official interest rate cuts are likely to be needed to deliver a housing market turnaround, but this is unlikely to occur in the next year. Meanwhile, Westpac’s senior economist Pat Bustamante says the major bank expects a further two interest rate rises in the current monetary policy cycle.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COTALITY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Rate rise cycle not over yet: Bullock

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 17-Jun-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent. Chalmers has attributed the monetary policy board’s unanimous decision to factors such as the federal government’s "responsible" budget and the US-Iran peace deal. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has not ruled out further interest rate rises, noting that inflation remains high and the government’s budget tax reforms have resulted in increased uncertainty across the economy. Bullock adds that the RBA expects economic growth to slow but it is not forecasting a recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Handouts row: Take a hike, says Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Thomas Henry
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-May-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.35 per cent yesterday will add to the pressure that families and businesses are already facing. He adds that the federal governments intends to play a helpful rather than harmful role in the fight against inflation. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has cautioned against giving households more money in next week’s budget, arguing that this would make it harder for the central bank to bring inflation under control. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the government should reduce public spending in the budget to help alleviate underlying inflation pressures, while also introducing reforms aimed at boosting productivity and capacity in the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Traders see end in sight for RBA rate rises

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Original article by Cecile Lefort, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-May-26

Money markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase official interest rates by another 25 basis points by September; at 4.6 per cent, the cash rate would be at its highest level since 2011. However, bond traders now expect just one more rate rise in 2026, with the chances of two more increases having been pared back from 80 per cent to 65 per cent. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says the RBA’s revised economic forecasts imply that its preferred measure of underlying inflation will return to its target of 2.5 per cent by February. He says this suggests that the central bank could switch to an easing bias in late 2026 or early 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD