REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

RBA sees housing slump but no recession

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 & 26 : 9-Sep-26

Bond traders now consider the chances of an official interest rate rise in September to be about 70 per cent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s assistant governor Sarah Hunter has told a property summit that the central bank is still concerned about inflation, and its monetary policy board could increase the cash rate later this month. Hunter also said that the downturn in the housing market is hurting the broader economy, and it will result in lower dwelling construction activity in 2027 and 2028. However, she has rejected concerns that the housing market downturn will trigger a recession.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

More house price pain to come, warns nation’s biggest lender

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 2-Sep-26

House prices in Sydney have fallen by 6.7 per cent so far in 2026, while prices in Melbourne are down 6.3 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipates a further downturn in the residential market; it now expects dwelling prices in Sydney to fall by 11 per cent in total for the year, and prices in Melbourne to be down 10 per cent. CBA expects dwelling prices to stop falling by April 2027, with a peak-to-trough downturn of 13 per cent forecast for Sydney and 11 per cent for Melbourne. Meanwhile, data from Cotality shows that national dwelling values fell for a fifth consecutive month in August.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COTALITY

Tax changes will hurt the poorest, developer says

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Original article by Michael Bleby, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 19-Aug-26

Data from Cotality shows that the median weekly asking rent for dwellings in Sydney rose by 0.7 per cent in the three months to July, while Melbourne recorded growth of 1.2 per cent. Darwin recorded the biggest growth in asking rents, at 4.4 per cent. Meanwhile, listed residential developer Aspen Group notes that the poorest 40 per cent of Australian households can only afford 10 per cent of advertised rental properties at present; the company has warned that this will worsen due to the federal government’s capital gains tax and negative gearing reforms, which will result in wealthier tenants seeking out more affordable rental housing.

CORPORATES
COTALITY, ASPEN GROUP – ASX APZ

Three-storey new houses should be the norm: PC

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Original article by Michael Read, Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 28-Jul-26

A report to be released by the Productivity Commission today will propose measures aimed at boosting the supply of new housing. Amongst other things, the report will recommend a reduction in the minimum size of housing lots and encouraging developers to build upwards by allowing three-storey homes in most residential areas. Meanwhile, the Productivity Commission notes that it now takes the average family 11 years to save for a housing deposit of 20 per cent, compared with just eight years in 2005.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Biggest house price fallers since the budget

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 & 26 : 15-Jul-26

Analysis by data provider Cotality shows that house prices in some of the most premium suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne have recorded the biggest falls since the federal government’s budget in May. House prices in Bellevue, which is Sydney’s most expensive suburb, fell by two per cent during May and June; other prestigious suburbs that have record sharp falls in home values include Balmain East, Double Bay and North Bondi. House prices in affluent inner-city and bayside suburbs of Melbourne have also fallen; they include Albert Park, Collingwood, Elwood and Port Melbourne.

CORPORATES
COTALITY

Housing slide to lift ASX, but banks face risk

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 7-Jul-26

House prices fell 0.4 per cent nationwide in June, while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 gained about 0.5 per cent. Historical analysis by Morningstar suggests that the Australian bourse is likely to benefit from the latest housing market weakness. The firm notes that excluding the global financial crisis, there have been five housing market downturns since 1980 that have resulted in dwelling prices falling by at least five per cent; the ASX 200 has in turn gained 7.5 per cent on average during each of these downturns. Looking ahead, Challenger’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns says the nation’s banks are likely to record lower growth in new home loans as an expected rise in the unemployment rate results in increased mortgage arrears.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF

First-home negative equity alarm

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Original article by Noah Yim, Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Jul-26

Property industry data shows that dwelling prices have fallen in nine of the 10 postcodes nationwide that have had the highest uptake of the federal government’s five per cent deposit scheme. The vast majority of these postcodes are in Melbourne, which has recorded the biggest fall in dwelling prices. Tim Lawless from Cotality says that some buyers who used the First Home Buyer Guarantee scheme are likely to experience a short-term period of negative equity; he adds that most of them will not be unduly impacted unless they need to sell their home for some reason.

CORPORATES
COTALITY

More people will retire with housing debt

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 & 26 : 14-Apr-26

Research by Loan Market Group has found that 40 per cent of respondents do not expect to have paid off their mortgage by the time they retire. Meanwhile, data from credit bureau Equifax shows that the number of enquiries from Australians aged 55+ about refinancing their mortgage rose by 12 per cent year-on-year in February, while there was eight per cent growth in enquiries from the 46-55 age group. Westpac in turn notes that people over the age of 40 accounted for about 20 per cent of mortgage loans issued to first-home buyers in 2025. Howard Osmond Financial Services MD Patricia Howard stresses that buying a home is essential to having a financially secure retirement.

CORPORATES
LOAN MARKET GROUP PTY LTD, EQUIFAX INCORPORATED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, HOWARD OSMOND FINANCIAL SERVICES

Sydney and Melbourne home prices fall

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 1-Apr-26

Data from Cotality shows that dwelling prices rose by 2.1 per cent nationallly during the first three months of 2026. The prices of homes in Sydney and Melbourne fell by 0.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively in the March quarter; in contrast, Perth recorded price growth of 7.3 per cent, ahead of Brisbane with 5.1 per cent growth. ANZ Bank economist Madeline Dunk notes that there has been no growth in dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne since November; the prospect of further interest rate rises could put further downward pressure on both housing markets.

CORPORATES
COTALITY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Capital gains tax reform needed to address inequality

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 27-Aug-25

The National Housing Supply & Affordability Council’s chair Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz was one of the participants in the federal government’s economic reform roundtable. She contends that a "very large conversation" is needed with regard to intergenerational inequity and intra-generational inequality; Lloyd-Hurwitz adds that any such discussion must include changes to the capital gains tax regime for investment properties, in order to address the issue of housing inequality. Lloyd-Hurwitz is the former CEO of listed property developer Mirvac Group.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. NATIONAL HOUSING SUPPLY AND AFFORDABILITY COUNCIL, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR