Fitch tips 10pc fall in house prices as immigration weakens

Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 15 : 23-Sep-20

Fitch Ratings has forecast that housing prices in Australia will fall by 5-10 per cent over the next 12-18 months. The credit ratings agency says the reduction in net immigration due to COVID-19 travel restrictions and the resulting impact on population growth will weigh on the residential market; it also warns that the restrictions are unlikely to be eased well into 2021. The National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation recently estimated that underlying demand for new houses and apartments could fall by up to 232,000 over the next three years as a result of the coronavirus.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, NATIONAL HOUSING FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CORPORATION – ASX NFI

HomeBuilder scheme prompts oversupply fears

Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 9-Jul-20

Some residential property developers have reported a sharp rise in sales since the federal government announced its six-month HomeBuilder scheme in June. Cedar Woods’ chief financial officer Leon Hanrahan has warned that some developers could overbuild in response to the scheme, resulting in an oversupply of new housing. Jeremy Sheppard of Select Residential Property says the risk of an oversupply is particularly high at housing estates in the outer suburbs of capital cities.

CORPORATES
CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED – ASX CWP, SELECT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY

State delays hold up HomeBuilder grants

Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 16-Jun-20

Housing Minister and Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar says there is a lot of interest in the federal government’s HomeBuilder scheme. He says there have been more than 296,000 visits to the HomeBuilder website and over 23,000 people have registered their interest in the scheme. However, mortgage brokers claim that they have not yet been able to get any borrower processed under the scheme, as the states have not yet signed up to it. Homeloanexperts.com.au MD Otto Dargan says it is still waiting to hear from the appropriate state government bodies on advice as to how the scheme will work.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, HOMELOANEXPERTS.COM.AU

House prices crash 30pc in doomsday scenario

Original article by James Kirby
The Australian – Page: 20 : 14-May-20

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has warned that house prices could fall by 32 per cent over the next three years if there is a prolonged economic downturn. This worst-case scenario is based on the unemployment rate exceeding nine per cent. CBA’s base case downturn scenario is for house prices to fall by 11 per cent. The bank has identified unemployment, underemployment, changes to income and house prices as the key drivers for the housing market.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Prices face 30pc fall if lockdown lingers

Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 2 : 8-Apr-20

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says confidence in the housing market will recover if coronavirus-induced restrictions are eased by the end of May. He warns that residential property prices could fall by up to 30 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne if there is a second wave of coronavirus infections during winter and the restrictions have to remain in place. Christopher adds that the closure of the nation’s borders will reduce underlying demand for housing; he expects this to be one of the last restrictions to be lifted.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Property sales collapse, price falls ahead: UBS

Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 16 : 3-Apr-20

Economists generally expect Australia’s residential property prices to decline by 5-20 per cent due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. UBS analysts have declined to forecast the likely effect of the health crisis on house prices, although they have warned that governments may need to step in with measures such as stamp duty cuts if the housing market falls too far. The investment bank adds that the ban on auctions and open houses is likely to prompt a sharp decline in sales volumes in the near-term.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

House prices set for double-digit growth: AMP

Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 28-Feb-20

AMP Capital has forecast 10 per cent growth in house prices nationally in 2020, but growth is expected to slow to around five per cent in 2021. Senior economist Diana Mousina says factors such as the interest rate cuts in 2019 and the potential for further monetary policy easing in 2020 should offset any impact that rising household debt levels and tighter lending standards may have on house prices.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Shortage of housing to hit big cities

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 & 34 : 13-Feb-20

A new report from Charter Keck Cramer has warned that the recent slowdown in apartment developments means that Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane will face a housing supply shortage by the end of 2021. Dwelling approvals across Australia fell by 18.5 per cent in calendar 2018, to the lowest level since 2012; all three east coast cities recorded a decline in apartment developments for the year. Rob Burgess of Charter Keck Cramer says the looming housing shortage will put upward pressure on rents.

CORPORATES
CHARTER KECK CRAMER

Home building hopes turn positive

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 16-Jan-20

The latest quarterly survey of the construction sector by the ANZ Bank and the Property Council of Australia suggests that building activity in the residential market will improve in the second half of 2020. The index of expectations for housing construction over the next 12 months has risen by 14.6 points in the survey for the March 2020 quarter; it is the largest quarterly gain since the three months to December 2013. PCA CEO Ken Morrison says the latest survey indicates that housing affordability will continue to be a key issue in 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

High-rises spur surge in building approvals

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 9-Jan-20

New figures show that there was an 11.8 per cent increase in building approvals in November, which was the strongest monthly growth since February. Approvals for high-density housing developments increased by 21 per cent in November, for an annual growth rate of six per cent. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that building approvals data tends to be volatile, but he adds that the latest figures suggest that approvals have begun to stabilise.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, URBAN TASKFORCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC