ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.7 points to 68.8 in late May – highest rating since early March

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.7 points to 68.8 in the week to 31 May; this is the highest result since early March. However, Consumer Confidence is 17.6pts lower than a year ago (86.4), but just 2.4pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.2. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but was unchanged in both New South Wales and Queensland. Now just 14% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 18% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 44% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 16% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Data centre boom drives first trade deficit since 2017

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 3-Jun-26

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation recorded a trade deficit of $2.4bn in the March 2026 quarter, compared with a trade surplus of $1bn in the December 2025 quarter. The Commonwealth Bank’s head economist Belinda Allen says easing commodity prices and higher imports have dragged down the trade balance in recent years. The ABS notes that iron ore prices fell significantly in the March quarter, while both iron ore and coal export volumes fell. Australia’s exports fell by 1.1 per cent overall, while rising demand for data centre equipment saw imports rise by 0.8 per cent. The trade figures are expected to reduce Australia’s economic growth by 0.8 per cent, with GDP data for the March quarter to be released today.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at almost 3.3 million in April; Real Unemployment at 1.63 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-May-26

In April 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 58,000 to 1,635,000 (10.1% of the workforce, down 0.4%), and under-employment dropped 48,000 to 1,639,000 (down 0.2% to 10.2%). In total, 3.27 million Australians (20.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in April. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just under 16.1 million in April (16,091,000 to be exact, down 94,000 on a month ago, and representing 68.8% of Australians aged 14+). Employment was down 36,000 to 14,456,000; this was driven by a sharp fall in full-time employment (down 225,000 to 9,145,000), although part-time employment rose 189,000 to a record high of 5,311,000. Overall employment represents 61.8% of Australians aged 14+. The April Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3.1pts to 64.1 after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by +0.25%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-May-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1pts to 64.1 in the week to 10 May; this is the fourth-lowest Consumer Confidence reading in the history of the index stretching back to 1972. Consumer Confidence is now 20.3pts lower than a year ago (87.5), and 5.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.3. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence dropped in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but increased slightly in Western Australia. Now just 14% of Australians (down 2ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 56% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 19% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 45% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 4% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 13% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 0.6pts to 67.2 in early May before the Reserve Bank meeting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-May-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 67.2 in the week to 3 May, which is the the seventh-lowest Consumer Confidence reading of all time. Consumer Confidence is now 20.3pts lower than a year ago (87.5), and 5.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.3. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence improved in New South Wales and South Australia, but declined in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. Now just 16% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Diesel ute sales fall off a cliff as fuel prices bite

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Original article by Ryan Cropp
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 6-May-26

Data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and the Electric Vehicle Council show that China’s BYD was the second-highest selling brand in Australia during April. The figures show that fully electric vehicles accounted for one in six new car sales for the month, with large diesel utes and four-wheel drives bearing the brunt of rising fuel prices. Sales of the Toyota HiLux fell by 31 per cent year-on-year, while Ford Everest sales were down more than 29 per cent. Sales of petrol cars overall fell by 30 per cent in April, while diesel vehicle sales were 21 per cent lower. In contrast, sales of BYD’s Sealion 7 electric car rose by more than 139 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL CHAMBER OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES, ELECTRIC VEHICLE COUNCIL, TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FORD MOTOR COMPANY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BYD COMPANY LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 6.6% in late April – up 0.3% points from the month of March

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased in the month of March 2026 and have continued to increase in April as the US and Israel war on Iran has continued, and are now at 6.6% for the week of 20-26 April (up 0.3% points from the month of March). Inflation Expectations have averaged 6.1% over the first 16 weeks of 2026. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for March shows the measure at 6.3% for the month (up 1% point from the prior month of February, and 0.2% points above the current average for 2026). Looking back over the last six months, since mid-October 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.8% over this extended period. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,115 Australians aged 14+ in March 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5pts to 67.8 in late April – highest for over a month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.5pts to 67.8 in the week to 26 April, although this is still the seventh-lowest Consumer Confidence reading of all time. Consumer Confidence is now 15.6pts lower than a year ago (83.4), and 4.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.6. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence improved significantly in Victoria and South Australia, was up slightly in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Western Australia.. Now 17% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 44% (down 1ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 4% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (down 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress up 1.9% points in March after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for second straight month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 26.8% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to March 2026, up 1.9% points from February. This is equivalent to 1,447,000 people (up 130,000 on a month ago). However, the number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is virtually unchanged on a year ago after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in May and August 2025, and then raised them in February and March 2026. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,020,000 (18.9% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 64.3 in mid-April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Apr-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 64.3 in the week to 19 April, although this is still the fourth lowest Consumer Confidence reading of all time. Consumer Confidence is 21.1pts lower than a year ago (85.5), and 8.7pts below the 2026 weekly average of 73.0. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence improved in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but was down in Victoria and South Australia. Now 15% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 57% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 45% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 4% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 53% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 15% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ