ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1pt to 77.5 – highest rating since the Iran War began in late February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Aug-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1pt to 77.5 in the week to 23 August; Consumer Confidence is still 8.5pts lower than a year ago (86.5), but it is 5.2pts above the 2026 weekly average of 72.3. Analysis by State shows that consumer confidence is increasing in Western Australia and South Australia, but is virtually unchanged in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 4ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the best results for these indicators since before the Iran War in late February). Meanwhile, 20% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 39% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 6.1% in late August – up 0.5% points from the month of July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Aug-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined early in the month of July but have now increased for six out of the last seven weeks since mid-July, as cuts to the petrol and diesel fuel excises were wound back in early July and ended in early August. Inflation Expectations are now at 6.1% for the week of 17-23 August, up 0.5% points from the month of July. The latest weekly reading is just 0.1% points below the average of 6.2% for Inflation Expectations over the 26 weeks since the Iran War began. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July shows the measure at 5.6% for the month – down 0.4% points from June. Inflation Expectations hit a record monthly high of 7% for April 2026 following the US and Israel attack on Iran but then dropped rapidly. However, the recent standoff has sent Inflation Expectations back up for six of the last seven weeks. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,113 Australians aged 14+ in June 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Warning bells ring out as business survival rate falls to decade low

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, David Tanner
The Australian – Page: 4 : 19-Aug-26

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was a net increase of just 85,000 businesses nationwide in 2025-26. Some 460,000 businesses were created during the financial year, while 375,000 ceased trading. Analysis of the data shows that just 61.9 per cent of new businesses survive for at least four years; businesses in the agricultural sector have the highest four-year survival rate, at 60.2 per cent, followed by healthcare and social assistance businesses (59.2 per cent). CreditorWatch’s chief economist Ivan Colhoun notes that a lot of new businesses are sole operators, and many of them do not survive.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CREDITOR WATCH PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.5pts to 76.5 – highest rating since early March after RBA leaves rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Aug-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.5pts to 76.5 in the week to 16 August; Consumer Confidence is still 12.9pts lower than a year ago (89.4), although it now 4.4pts above the 2026 weekly average of 72.1. Analysis by State shows a consistent theme, with Consumer Confidence increasing in all five mainland States. Now 18% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 41% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5 points to 74.7 in first week of August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.5 points to 74.7 in the week to 2 August; Consumer Confidence is still 15.9pts lower than a year ago (90.6), but it is now 2.8pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.9. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has risen in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, while falling in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 16% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 23% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 18% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence hits a new record low of 76

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

In July 2026 Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 1.5 points to a new record low of 76, marginally below the previous record low in May of 76.1. Business Confidence is also down 27 points from a year ago, while Business Confidence has fallen below 80 in all six States for the first time. Now 18.7% (down 7.4ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2020), while 48.3% (down 3.1ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Only 29.1% (down 4.3ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32.8% (up 1.3ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, a new record low of only 25.5% (down 3.9ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 48% (up 0.2ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Extreme mortgage stress increases nationally, driven by people on lower incomes and in lower socio-economic quintiles

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

Roy Morgan’s Single Source research shows that an estimated 1.06 million mortgage holders (19.8%) were ‘Extremely at Risk’ of mortgage stress in the six months to June 2026, up from 16.7% in December 2025, and 19.3% higher than in June 2024 (just before the reworked Stage 3 tax cuts took effect). The proportion of mortgage holders who are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress (a less strict measure) has in turn risen from 25.2% in December 2025 to 28.5% in June 2026; this equates to 1.53 million mortgage holders. Mortgage stress eased from June 2024 to December 2025, driven by factors such as real wage growth as inflation declined, income tax cuts, home loan interest rate cuts and a rising sharemarket. However, renewed increases in interest rates and inflation in 2026 are putting renewed pressure on mortgage stress. A key cohort driving high levels of extreme mortgage stress are lower income earners with household incomes of less than $100,000, and people in the lower socio-economic quintiles.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bullock rings alarm on living standards

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jul-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that slowing productivity growth is making the domestic economy more vulnerable to global shocks. She also stated that the nation’s living standards will continue to stagnate unless the issue of productivity is addressed. Bullock also said the RBA will be open to further interest rate rises if this is deemed necessary to achieve its mandate of keeping the unemployment rate as low as sustainably possible while returning inflation to its target range of 2-3 per cent. Inflation data for the June quarter will be released today, and could determine whether there is another official interest rate rise in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.9% in late July – down 0.1% points from the month of June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jul-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined slightly in the month of June but have stabilised so far during July as the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated and are at 5.9% for the week of 20-26 July, down 0.1% points from the month of June. The latest weekly reading is 0.3% points below the average for Inflation Expectations of 6.2% over the 22 weeks since the Iran War began. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for June shows the measure at 6% for the month – down 0.3% points from May. Inflation Expectations spiked to a record monthly high of 7% for April following the US and Israel attack on Iran, but then dropped significantly; however, the recent renewal of fighting has sent Inflation Expectations back up for three straight weeks since early July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,113 Australians aged 14+ in June 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.4 points to 71.2 – lowest rating since mid-June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jul-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.4 points to 71.2 in the week to 26 July; Consumer Confidence is now 15.5pts lower than a year ago (86.7), and 0.6pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.8. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has fallen in the five mainland States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 16% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 17% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ