ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 115.3

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% to 115.3 in the week ended 14 April. This reaffirms our prognosis that the post-Budget dip in consumer confidence was likely noise. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.1%, after three consecutive falls, while views towards future financial conditions inched up 0.1%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 4.2%, to the highest level for this year; views towards future economic conditions rose 1.5%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was up 1.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Record 1.3 million landlords cash in on negative gearing as shake-up looms

Original article by Ben Butler, Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 17-Apr-19

Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that the number of property investors who use negative gearing rose from 631,000 to about 1.3 million between 2000 and 2017. In contrast, the number of investors who broke even or made a profit rose from 532,000 to around 856,000. The figures also show that the proportion of investors who are aged 60+ rose from around 15 per cent to about 23.5 per cent. Robert Deutsch of the Tax Institute does not expect Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms to have much effect on housing prices.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, THE TAX INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Real unemployment jumps to 10.9% as Australians prepare to vote in election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,158,000 Australians were employed in March 2019, down 216,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 203,000 over the past year (to 4,228,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, down by 13,000 (to 7,930,000). The figures also show that 1,491,000 Australians (10.9% of the workforce) were unemployed in March, up 281,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 2%. In addition, 1,321,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 41,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, a record high 2,812,000 Australians (20.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, an increase of 240,000 in a year (up 1.7%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.9% for March is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for February of 4.9%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the disappointing employment figures suggest the real problem facing the Morrison Government has been an inability to solve Australia’s continuing problem of high unemployment and under-employment. Roy Morgan has consistently shown over 2 million Australians looking for work (unemployed) or looking for more work (under-employed) since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 and that problem remains a large one to this day.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Negative equity feared as house prices plunge

Original article by Michael Roddan, Luke Griffiths
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-Apr-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Guy Debelle says the number of homeowners with negative equity has increased, although he notes that it remains largely confined to Western Australia and mining regions. He adds that it is unusual for house prices to fall sharply at a time when the economy is continuing to grow and the unemployment rate is low. Debelle says the outlook for the labour market is likely to determine whether there is a further increase in negative equity and mortgage arrears.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down to 113.2

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Apr-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.3% to 113.2 in the week ended 7 April, despite the tax cuts set out in the Budget. Consumer confidence is now just above its long-run average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.7%, while views towards future financial conditions rose by the same amount, thus having a neutral effect on the combined index. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 0.7%, building on the big jump of 8.1% in the previous reading; views towards future economic conditions rose 0.8%, for a fourth straight weekly gain. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell by 7.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Stretched Australians unable to reduce debt

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 9-Apr-19

An EY survey has found that just 28 per cent of Australians expect to reduce their debt in 2019, down from 60 per cent in 2018. The survey also found that more than 60 per cent of respondents were ‘extremely’ concerned about the cost of living, suggesting that more people are not able to cut their debt because they lack the ability to do so, rather than a lack of desire to do so. It is possible that some Australians could use the tax cuts announced in the April 2019 Budget as an opportunity to reduce their debt.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chinese investment at decade low

Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 8-Apr-19

Chinese investment in Australia in 2018 fell by 36.3 per cent, according to a report by KPMG and the University of Sydney. The fall was despite Chinese global outbound direct investment rising by 4.2 per cent in 2018. Chinese-state owned companies are being directed to invest in Belt and Road infrastructure projects in Asia and central Europe, while private companies are focusing on healthcare and technology transactions.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, CDH INVESTMENTS FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY, SIRTEX MEDICAL LIMITED, YUHU GROUP (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, DALIAN WANDA GROUP COMPANY LIMITED, ENN GROUP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO

Business Confidence up slightly in March at 106.7 (pre-Budget)

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-19

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 1.1pts to 106.7 in March 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 8.7pts below its level of March 2018 and 9.1pts below its long-term average of 115.8. In addition, the average Business Confidence during the March quarter of only 106.1 is the weakest start to a year in the history of the Index. Now 49.6% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while just 24% (up 0.2ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 45.6% (up 4.9ppts) of businesses expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ over the next year, while 48.6% (down 4.6ppts) expect the economy to have ‘bad times’. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says April and May are set to be dominated by the looming Federal Election, and the continuing political uncertainty is likely to prevent any significant moves either up or down for Business Confidence.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Record trade surplus of $4.8b thanks to iron ore

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-19

New figures show that Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $4.8bn in February, well ahead of analysts’ expectations of just $3.7bn. The result was boosted by an 11 per cent increase in the value of iron ore exports. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank expects commodity prices to rise further, and that the forecasts outlined in the April 2019 Budget will prove to be too conservative. Meanwhile, services exports rose by two per cent in February, while there was a one per cent decline in rural exports.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Hopes for higher pay revised down

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B8 : 3-Apr-19

The April 2019 Budget papers show that the federal government has scaled back its wage growth forecasts since the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. It now expects wages to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2018-19 and 2.75 per cent in 2019-20. Wages growth in 2020-21 in turn is expected to be 3.25 per cent. In contrast, the Reserve Bank has forecast wages growth of about 2.5 per cent until 2020, and 2.6 per cent by mid-2021. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to be five per cent over the forward estimates period, while the labour participation rate is expected to ease to 65.5 per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES