ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.8% in late June – down 0.5% points from the month of May

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined sharply in the month of May 2026, and have continued this downward trend so far during June; Inflation Expectations are at 5.8% for the week of 15-21 June, down 0.5% points from the month of May. The latest weekly reading is now below the average for Inflation Expectations over the first 24 weeks of 2026 of 6.1%. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May shows the measure at 6.3% for the month – down 0.7% points from the prior month of April, returning to its level in March (also 6.3%). Inflation Expectations spiked to a record weekly high of 7.3% (23-29 March) and record monthly high of 7% for April, following the US and Israel attack on Iran, but have dropped significantly over the last two months as a ceasefire was called. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,104 Australians aged 14+ in May 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.1pts to 72.8 driven by more people saying good time to buy major household items

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.1pts to 72.8 in in the week to 21 June, its highest rating since early March. Consumer Confidence is still 13.9pts lower than a year ago (86.7), but 1.6pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.2. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, was unchanged in South Australia, and down in Victoria. Now just 16% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress up 0.8% points in May after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates in early May to 4.35%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 29% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to May 2026, up 0.8% points from April. This is equivalent to 1,538,000 people (up 65,000 on a month earlier). The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up by 100,000 on a year ago, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in May and August 2025, and then raised them in February, March and May 2026. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,084,000 (20.4% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 70.7 in mid-June

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 70.7 in mid-June, down 0.1pts from a week ago. However, Consumer Confidence is 14.7pts lower than a year ago (85.4), and just 0.4pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.1. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, but was down in Queensland and Western Australia. Now just 17% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 46% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at over 3.2 million in May; Real Unemployment at 1.7 million

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-26

In May 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment rose 69,000 to 1,704,000 (10.7% of the workforce, up 0.6%), but under-employment dropped 136,000 to 1,503,000 (down 0.7% to 9.5%). In total, 3.21 million Australians (20.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just under 15.9 million in May (15,860,000 to be exact, down 231,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.7% of Australians aged 14+). Employment was down 300,000 to 14,156,000 in May; this was driven by falls in both full-time employment (down 224,000 to 8,921,000) and part-time employment (down 76,000 to 5,235,000. Overall employment represents 60.4% of Australians aged 14+. The May Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2 points to 70.8 in early June – first time above 70 since early March

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2 points to 70.8 in the week to 7 June; this is the first time the index has been above the mark of 70 for over two months. However, Consumer Confidence is 15.9pts lower than a year ago (86.7), and just 0.4pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.2. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales, and Queensland, but was down slightly in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. Now just 15% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (up 4ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 45% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 19% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence hits a new record low of only 76.1 in May after Reserve Bank raises interest rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jun-26

In May 2026 Roy Morgan Business Confidence hit a new record low of 76.1 and has now fallen by 28.9pts so far during 2026. This result is 0.4pts below the previous record low reached a month ago, and 0.8 points below the pandemic low of 76.9 in April 2020. Business Confidence is also down 23.5 points from a year ago. Now 25.2% (up 1.2ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 44.9% (up 0.9ppts), say the business is ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since December 2023). Just 29% (down 3.6ppts) of respondents expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2015), while 34.1% (up 4.5ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (a record high figure for this indicator). Meanwhile, just 28.8% (up 0.5ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 50% (unchanged) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,181 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.7 points to 68.8 in late May – highest rating since early March

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.7 points to 68.8 in the week to 31 May; this is the highest result since early March. However, Consumer Confidence is 17.6pts lower than a year ago (86.4), but just 2.4pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.2. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but was unchanged in both New South Wales and Queensland. Now just 14% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 18% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 44% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 16% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Data centre boom drives first trade deficit since 2017

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 3-Jun-26

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation recorded a trade deficit of $2.4bn in the March 2026 quarter, compared with a trade surplus of $1bn in the December 2025 quarter. The Commonwealth Bank’s head economist Belinda Allen says easing commodity prices and higher imports have dragged down the trade balance in recent years. The ABS notes that iron ore prices fell significantly in the March quarter, while both iron ore and coal export volumes fell. Australia’s exports fell by 1.1 per cent overall, while rising demand for data centre equipment saw imports rise by 0.8 per cent. The trade figures are expected to reduce Australia’s economic growth by 0.8 per cent, with GDP data for the March quarter to be released today.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at almost 3.3 million in April; Real Unemployment at 1.63 million

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-May-26

In April 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 58,000 to 1,635,000 (10.1% of the workforce, down 0.4%), and under-employment dropped 48,000 to 1,639,000 (down 0.2% to 10.2%). In total, 3.27 million Australians (20.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in April. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just under 16.1 million in April (16,091,000 to be exact, down 94,000 on a month ago, and representing 68.8% of Australians aged 14+). Employment was down 36,000 to 14,456,000; this was driven by a sharp fall in full-time employment (down 225,000 to 9,145,000), although part-time employment rose 189,000 to a record high of 5,311,000. Overall employment represents 61.8% of Australians aged 14+. The April Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED