ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 109.0 (corrected)

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Dec-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 109.0 in the week ended 8 December – a second straight increase during the early weeks of December. In the run-up to Christmas the good news for retailers is that the ‘time to buy a household item’ index gained 1.9%, building on the previous week’s gain of 5.3% following the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. In addition consumers became more confident about their current personal financial situation with a 1% increase from a week ago, although there was a 3.9% drop in regards to future financial conditions over the next 12 months. Consumers have also become more confident about the performance of the Australian economy going forward with an increase of 3.9% for current economic conditions and an increase of 2.7% for future economic conditions, although both indicators remain below long-term averages. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was down 0.1ppt to 3.9%, as the weekly reading softened to 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 108.1

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 109.0 in the week ended 8 December, continuing the upward momentum of the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1%, while views towards future financial conditions fell 3.9%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rebounded from a four-year low, rising 3.9%; views towards future economic conditions gained 2.7%, but both remain well below average. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index gained 1.9%, building on the previous week’s gain of 5.3%, although it remains well below its long-run average. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was down 0.1ppt to 3.9%, as the weekly reading softened to 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Slide in wages could risk tax cuts, surplus

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 10-Dec-19

The Wage Price Index growth rate for 2019-20 is forecast to be 2.75 per cent, but wages increased by just 2.2 per cent in the September quarter. Westpac economist Bill Evans expects the federal government to downgrade its wage growth forecast in the mid-year budget update; he warns that this in turn may affect the size of the surplus and the Coalition’s ability to bring forward the second stage of its income tax cuts package. Evans notes that the price of iron ore is trading well above the government’s forecasts, which will help offset any revenue shortfall from slowing wages growth.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

Business Confidence improves, up 2.4pts to 108.4 in November

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Dec-19

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 2.4pts (+2.3%) to 108.4 in November 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Driving the first increase since August was improving sentiment about the year ahead. Business Confidence is 5.4pts lower than it was year ago and 7pts below the long-term average of 115.4. Now 50.8% (up 9ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.4% (virtually unchanged) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 44.8% (up 4.1ppts) of businesses expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ economically over the next year, while 50.8% (down 1.6ppts) expect the economy to have ‘bad times’. Some 49.0% (down 1.4ppts) of businesses say the next year will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 37.9% (up 2.1ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest’. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,086 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Economy lifts but spending at GFC levels

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Dec-19

Australia’s GDP growth for the September quarter was slightly below economists’ forecasts at 0.4 per cent, while the economy grew by 1.7 per cent year-on-year. The national accounts data also shows that consumer spending increased by just 0.1 per cent during the quarter, which is its lowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the household savings rate rose from 2.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has welcomed the GDP data, but shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers has renewed Labor’s call for economic stimulus.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Investment strike keeps growth low

Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 5-Dec-19

Commonwealth Bank economist Michael Blythe says the latest GDP data shows that Australia has a two-speed economy, with private sector spending down 0.1 per cent in the September quarter and 0.3 per cent year-on-year, while public sector spending increased by 1.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively. Master Builders Australia has urged the federal government to fast-track smaller infrastructure projects, with chief economist Shane Garrett noting that businesses and consumers lack the confidence to spend at present.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED – ASX WGN

Construction the drag on productivity

Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 4-Dec-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s analysis shows that the construction sector was the biggest contributor to the decline in the nation’s labour productivity in 2018-19. The central bank’s Statement on Monetary Policy notes that this may be due to construction firms retaining idled workers in the hope that the residential development sector will rebound. However, the RBA’s analysis could weaken the CFMMEU’s recent proposal for annual pay rises of five per cent for New South Wales building workers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Stimulus calls to ease as mine exports surge

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Dec-19

Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank says high commodity prices were a big contributor to Australia’s $7.9bn current account surplus for the September quarter. Official data shows that government spending was also higher than forecast during the quarter. The figures have strengthened expectations that the latest national accounts data will show that the economy grew by at least 0.5 per cent in the quarter, and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. This would in turn reduce pressure on the federal government to pursue stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 108.1

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 108.1 in the week ended 1 December, its first gain in four weeks. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.6%, while views towards future financial conditions gained 4.2%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions declined 4.1% to its lowest point in four years; views towards future economic conditions gained 1%, although this comes after a cumulative loss of almost 10% over the prior two weeks. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index jumped 5.3%, albeit from a 10-year low in the previous reading. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was up 0.1ppt to 4.0%, and the weekly reading jumped from 3.8% to 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Spending forecasts raise GDP fears

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 29-Nov-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that business investment fell by 0.2 per cent in the September quarter and by 1.3 per cent year-on-year. Mining investment increased by 1.2 per cent in the year to September, while investment in equipment, plant and machinery was down 3.5 per cent. Josh Williamson of Citigroup says the latter figure is likely to reduce GDP growth in the September quarter by 0.15 percentage points.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD