ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falls again to 114.6

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.0% to 114.6 in the week ended 9 June, although it remains above the long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, while views towards future financial conditions were down 2.2%. This weekly decline has resulted in the subindices closing below their long-term averages. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 7.8%, after rising for three consecutive weeks; future economic conditions were down 2.8%, resulting in the subindex falling below the long-term average. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose 4.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence breaks to 116.9

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.4% to 116.9 in the week ended 2 June, after two weekly gains. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 4.7% after four consecutive increases, while views towards future financial conditions were down 2.8%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose by 2.1% (up for a third consecutive week), but future economic conditions were down 0.3% after rising 4.5% in the previous reading. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell 1.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia’s economy slows to levels last seen during the GFC

Original article by Stephen Letts, Michael Janda
abc.net au – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

Official data shows that Australia’s GDP growth was just 0.4 per cent in the March 2019 quarter, and 1.8 per cent in the year to March. Annual growth was the lowest in almost a decade, heightening concerns about a GDP per capita recession. The national accounts data also shows that household spending grew by just 1.8 per cent in the year to March, although government spending increased by 5.1 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the near-term outlook for the economy remains positive, but he cautions that the outlook for 2020 is "challenging".

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Real unemployment at 10.3% as L-NP starts new term in Government

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 11,926,000 Australians were employed in May 2019, down 219,0000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 375,000 over the past year (to 3,911,000); full-time employment was up by 156,000 (to 8,015,000). The figures also show that 1,369,000 Australians (10.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in May, up 53,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,223,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 28,000 in a year (down 0.1%). In total, 2,592,000 Australians (19.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May, an increase of 25,000 in a year (up 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.3% for May is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the first priority for the re-elected Coalition government is to pass the promised income tax cuts as soon as Parliament resumes. Other legislative priorities should include tackling the ‘cash economy’ which undermines law-abiding businesses, reducing the penalty rates for businesses opening on weekends and public holidays, and cutting the regulatory ‘red tape’ that discourages businesses from hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

GDP forecasts upgraded on record trade surplus

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 5-Jun-19

Australia has posted a current account deficit of just $2.9bn for the March quarter, compared with $7.2bn in the previous three months. The trade surplus has risen to a record $13.6bn, with the value of goods and services exports rising by $4.24bn and imports falling by $514m. The trade surplus was bolstered by higher iron ore prices, although iron ore export volumes fell during the quarter. National Australia Bank and BIS Oxford Economics have upgraded their GDP growth forecasts for the March quarter.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Minimum wage nowhere near keeping pace with rents

Original article by Killian Plastow
The New Daily – Page: Online : 4-Jun-19

The Fair Work Commission cited a fall in inflation, which is measured by the Consumer Price Index, as the reason for a smaller increase in the minimum wage in 2019 than in 2018. Anglicare executive director Kasy Chambers notes that the CPI is based on a ‘basket of goods’ that does not include rent or housing costs. She says the CPI has only increased by 63 per cent since 1998, while housing costs have risen by 300 per cent over the same period. Australian Bureau of Statistics chief economist Bruce Hockman notes that there are other data sets that examine the sort of housing costs that Anglicare is referring to, but that the CPI was not intended to measure them.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ANGLICARE AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence soars 11% to 114.4 as L-NP win election and majority say now is a good time to invest

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jun-19

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 11.5pts (+11.2%) to 114.4 in May 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, in a month in which the L-NP Government was re-elected against the expectations of many. The increase was across the whole month, although the small proportion of interviews conducted after the election had a higher level of Business Confidence (118.4) than the pre-election period (113.5). The jump in Business Confidence in May is the biggest monthly increase since a 14.7pt (+12.3%) jump to 134.3 in September 2013, when the L-NP Government was first elected. Business Confidence is now only 2.7pts below its level in May 2018 and 1.3pts less than its long-term average of 115.7. Now 44.5% (up 9.3ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while just 15.7% (down 6.1ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 47.4% (up 6.4ppts) of businesses expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ over the next year, while 41.3% (down 6.6ppts) expect the economy to have ‘bad times’. Now 51.3% (up 3.6ppts) of businesses also say the next year will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 36% (down 2.9ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2018).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

No joy yet for housing construction

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 31-May-19

Building approvals fell by 4.7 per cent month-on-month in April in seasonally adjusted terms, while detached dwelling approvals declined for a third month to their lowest level in nearly six years. Callum Pickering from jobs site Indeed says the fall in approvals indicates that construction activity is likely to continue to decline over the next 12 months, although National Australia Bank economist Kaixin Owyong notes that non-residential approvals increased by 16 per cent in April.

CORPORATES
INDEED INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases further to 118.6

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 118.6 in the week ended 26 May. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1.2%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 0.8%. These two indices have risen for three consecutive weeks, and the measure of current financial conditions is at its highest since early February. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 3.0% and future economic conditions were up 4.5%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell 2.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations dropped to a record low of 3.7% in April

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-May-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.7% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for April 2019. This is down 0.3% on March and down 0.8% on April 2018, and a new record low for the indicator. Inflation Expectations have now dropped to 1.2% points below the nine-year average of 4.9%, the largest gap below average since late 2015. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters have dropped to only 3.4%, down 0.7% from a year ago, while those of ALP supporters are now just above the national average at 3.8%, also down by 0.7%. The Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters are in comparison little changed from a year ago at 3.8%, down by only 0.2%. April Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,154 Australians aged 14+ face-to-face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS