ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 2.2 points to 64.5 after ceasefire agreement in Middle East

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Apr-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.2 points to 64.5 in the week to 12 April; however, it is now 19.7pts lower than a year ago (84.2), and 9.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 73.6. Although a second straight weekly improvement and the highest result for a month, this is the fourth-lowest Consumer Confidence in the index stretching back to 1972. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence improved in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland; it was unchanged in Western Australia and down in South Australia. Now 12% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 59% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 19% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 4% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 50% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 14% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.4 million in March; Real Unemployment at 1.69 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Apr-26

In March 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 28,000 to 1,693,000 (10.5% of the workforce, down 0.1%), and under-employment dropped 205,000 to 1,687,000 (down 1.2% to 10.4%). In total, 3.38 million Australians (20.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just under 16.2 million in March (16,185,000 to be exact, down 78,000 on a month ago and representing 69.4% of Australians aged 14+). Employment was down 50,000 to 14,492,000; this drop was due to a sharp fall in part-time employment (down 120,000 to 5,122,000), while full-time employment rose 70,000 to a new record high of 9,370,000. Overall employment represents 62.1% of Australians aged 14+. The March Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

More people will retire with housing debt

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 & 26 : 14-Apr-26

Research by Loan Market Group has found that 40 per cent of respondents do not expect to have paid off their mortgage by the time they retire. Meanwhile, data from credit bureau Equifax shows that the number of enquiries from Australians aged 55+ about refinancing their mortgage rose by 12 per cent year-on-year in February, while there was eight per cent growth in enquiries from the 46-55 age group. Westpac in turn notes that people over the age of 40 accounted for about 20 per cent of mortgage loans issued to first-home buyers in 2025. Howard Osmond Financial Services MD Patricia Howard stresses that buying a home is essential to having a financially secure retirement.

CORPORATES
LOAN MARKET GROUP PTY LTD, EQUIFAX INCORPORATED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, HOWARD OSMOND FINANCIAL SERVICES

Buyers steer clear of petrol as more electric vehicles hit the road

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Original article by Sam Irvine
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Apr-26

Data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and the Electric Vehicle Council shows that a record 15,839 electric vehicles were sold nationwide during March. Electric vehicles comprised 14.6 per cent of new cars sold in March, with EV sakes rising to a record market share for a second successive month. FCAI CEO Tony Weber expects Australians to continue to embrace EVs until the Iran war ends, but he adds that it is too soon to know whether the trend will be sustained over the long-term. The figures also show that new car sales fell by 2.6 per cent overall in the year to March

CORPORATES
FEDERAL CHAMBER OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES, ELECTRIC VEHICLE COUNCIL

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.3 points to 58.8 – a record low for Consumer Confidence as average retail petrol prices hit record high above $2.50 per litre

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Apr-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.3 points to 58.8 in the week to 29 March; it is now 26.5pts lower than a year ago (85.3), and 16.5pts below the 2026 weekly average of 75.3. This is a second consecutive record low level for Consumer Confidence in the index stretching back over 50 years since 1972, and the first time the index has ever dipped below 60. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in all five mainland States this week. Now just 12% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (a new record low for this indicator), while 61% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (a new record high for this indicator). Looking forward, 17% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (a new record low for this indicator), while 51% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (a new record high for this indicator). Only 4% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 56% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2020). Meanwhile, just 13% (down 1ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator for six years since March 2020), while 54% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.61 million in February; Real Unemployment at 1.72 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

In February 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 97,000 to 1,721,000 (10.6% of the workforce, down 0.6%), although under-employment surged 216,000 to a record high of 1,892,000 (up 1.3% to 11.6%). In total, 3.61 million Australians (22.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at a record high just above 16.2 million in February – 16,263,000 to be exact, up 51,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.8% of Australians aged 14+. Employment increased by 148,000 to 14,542,000; driving the increase was a rise in part-time employment (up 169,000 to 5,242,000), while full-time employment fell 21,000 to 9,300,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 8.8pts to 88.6 in February – before the conflict in the Middle East even began

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

IIn February 2026, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 8.8pts to 88.6, its lowest level since September 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business Confidence has now dropped by 16.4pts in the last two months, the largest two-month fall since August 2021. The result came after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to 3.85% in early February, its first interest rate increase since November 2023. It is important to note that this result for Business Confidence came before the Israeli and US attacks on Iran which began on the final day of February and have already sent oil and gas prices soaring. Business Confidence is now 20pts below the long-term average of 109.6, and down 19.9 points from a year ago. Now 24.7% (down 2.5ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 41.3% (up 11.6ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2024). Just 37.1% (up 3.8ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 24.8% (up 0.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 33.8% (down 1.1ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 41% (up 4.1ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA delivers recession warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.9 points to 68.5 – lowest Consumer Confidence since start of pandemic

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.9 points to 68.5 in the week to 15 March; it is now 15.3pts lower than a year ago (83.8), and 9.7pts below the 2026 weekly average of 78.2. The only occasion Consumer Confidence was lower was the weekend of 28-29 March 2020, at the very start of the COVID-19 pandemic when widespread lockdowns were first introduced. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia, but up slightly in Victoria. Now 15% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (this is the lowest net result for this indicator since December 2023). Looking forward, 21% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 5% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 49% (up 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since August 2020). Meanwhile, 16% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 47% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2025).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.7 points to 73.4 following launch of US and Israeli attacks on Iran

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.7 points to 73.4 in the week to 8 March; it is now 13.5pts lower than a year ago (86.9), and 5.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 79.2. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States including in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, but up in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ