House price falls key caveat for Reserve

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Feb-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank believes that the cases for an increase or a reduction in the cash rate are "more evenly balanced" now than they had been over the last year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank had stated in December that a rate rise is more likely. The central bank has also noted that dwelling investment is likely to decline more sharply than previously anticipated, and it has given indications that the outlook for house prices may influence the timing of the next change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers to 115.2

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.0% to 115.2 in the week ended 17 February. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.8%, while views toward future financial conditions rose 3.6%. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions fell by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose by 1.1% after four consecutive weekly declines. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations declined by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, the lowest since 2016.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.2% in January

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2019. This is unchanged on December and down 0.3% on January 2018. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range of between 4.2-4.5% since November 2016. Inflation Expectations remain significantly below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis of Inflation Expectations by voting intentions shows that L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party in January, unchanged at only 3.6%. L-NP supporters have had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters fell 0.1% to a record low of 3.9%. January Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,111 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Wage rises to arrest falling growth outlooks

Original article by Natasha Gillezeau, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-Feb-19

BIS Oxford Economics recently downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, but the firm does not expect the Hayne royal commission to have much impact on the economy. Alexandra Heath, the Reserve Bank’s head of economics, says the labour market was more resilient in 2018 than the central bank had expected, and it is likely to remain strong in 2019. She says this should in turn lead to a gradual increase in wages. She adds that the downturn in the housing market is unlikely to have much impact on economic growth or consumer spending.

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BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence tumbles to 114.1

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence 3.4% to 114.1 in the week ended 10 February, taking the index to a three-month low. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 7.1%, taking the subindex back to where it was in November, but still quite some way above the long-run average. Households’ views towards future financial conditions fell by a more subdued 1.6%. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell by 3.2%, its first fall after three straight weekly gains, while future economic conditions fell by 3.8%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 1.6%, its fourth straight weekly loss and taking it back to where it was at the end of October.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Incomes lagging rise in cost of living

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 7-Feb-19

The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research & Methods estimates that household income has increased by 8.5 per cent over the last three years. However, the increase in the cost of living over this period means that real income per person has fallen by 2.9 per cent. The analysis also shows that so-called bracket creep saw personal income tax payments rise by 20 per cent to $57.4bn over the three years to 2018, while total disposable income increased by just 7.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. CENTRE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AND METHODS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Housing bust, lower wages hit retail sales

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in December, while sales grew by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter. The figures also show that Western Australia is the only state that did not experience a decline in retail sales during December. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank says consumer spending is being affected by the downturn in the housing market. He notes that this is particular evident in New South Wales, where house prices have fallen the most and retail sales were down 1.1 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

King coal now tops export earners

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 24 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s minerals and energy exports rose to a record $193bn in 2018. The value of coal exports topped $66.2bn, surpassing iron ore as Australia’s biggest export earner for the first time. Mining companies benefited from a rally in thermal and coking coal prices in 2018. However, prices have since fallen, while the iron ore price has rallied in 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 118.1

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.4% to 118.1 in the week ended 3 February, moving higher for the second week in a row. The gain has brought the index close to its highest level since early December. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.2%, and views towards future financial conditions gained 1.3%. Consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions gained 0.9% and 1.4% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 0.3%, to its lowest level since October.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Apartment approvals hit four-year low

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Feb-19

Official figures show that just 53,590 units in apartment towers of at least four storeys were approved in 2018, which is about 12 per cent lower than 2017. The number of approvals for stand-alone dwellings fell slightly, to 119,668. Overall, a total of 212,316 apartments, houses and townhouses were approved in 2018, which is the lowest level in four years. JLL has forecast that just 16,000 apartments will be completed across Australia in 2019.

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JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD