ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.9 pts to 92.1 after Melbourne COVID-19 cases surge – forcing Melbourne back into six weeks lockdown

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jul-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.9pts to 92.1 in the week to 4/5 July, to its lowest level since May 9/10 (90.3). Consumer Confidence is now 25.5pts lower than a year ago (117.6) and 2.9pts below the 2020 weekly average of 95.0. Now 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 37% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 7% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 46% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 35% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Over 2 million Australians still unemployed in June, down 42,000 on May

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-20

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the unemployment estimate for June shows 2.05 million Australians were unemployed (14.5% of the workforce) and 1.41 million (10.0%) under-employed – a total of 3.45 million Australians (24.5%). The small changes in unemployment and under-employment in June show how much new growth is required to provide jobs for the more than 1 million Australians now unemployed that were working prior to the Australia-wide shut-downs enforced in mid-March. In addition the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne over the last two weeks demonstrates the virus poses an ongoing threat to lives, livelihoods and the economy more broadly.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Capital raising rush far from over

Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 1-Jul-20

Data from Refinitiv shows that Australian-listed companies raised $US14.9bn ($21.8bn) via the issuance of new shares in the June quarter, as they sought to boost their balance sheets in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This is the highest quarterly total since late 2010, while some $US18.8bn worth of new shares were issued in the first half of calendar 2020. Fund managers generally expect the capital raisings momentum to be maintained in the second half. Meanwhile, the total value of mergers and acquisitions fell to $US24.9bn in the first half of 2020, compared with $US48.2bn for the first half of 2019.

CORPORATES
REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Jobs clawback sees 250,000 return to work

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 1-Jul-20

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the number of employees on companies’ payrolls has increased by 2.7 per cent since mid-April. This equates to about 250,000 workers, and follows an 8.8 per cent fall in payrolled jobs in the four weeks from 14 March. However, there are still 670,000 fewer workers on companies’ payrolls than prior to the coronavirus pandemic. The figures are based on payrolls data from the Australian Taxation Office.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.5 pts to 93.0 after COVID-19 cases surge in Melbourne

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Jul-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 4.5pts to 93.0 in the week to 27/28 June, and is now at its lowest since May 23/24 (92.7). Consumer Confidence is 25.9pts lower than a year ago (118.9) and 2.1pts below the 2020 weekly average of 95.1. Now 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 9/10), while 35% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 25/26), and 19% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 7% (down 3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 45% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 36% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wage growth tipped to crash as job market struggles

Original article by Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 24-Jun-20

ANZ Bank economists Catherine Birch and Bansi Madhavani forecast that Australia’s nominal wage growth will slow to a record low of just 0.7 per cent in the first half of 2021. They warn that wages growth could fall to around zero during some quarters, and note that Australia had lower growth in wages than the US and New Zealand prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Birch and Madhavani add that the unemployment rate is artificially low due to the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Young and lowly paid most vulnerable: RBA

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 24-Jun-20

Research from the Reserve Bank of Australia has found that most households had sufficient wealth at the onset of the coronavirus-induced recession to ride out a temporary fall in income. However, only about half of younger Australians had enough liquid assets such as savings to pay their expenses for three months. A similar percentage of workers in sectors that were hardest hit by coronavirus lockdown measures had limited capacity to meet their expenses at the start of the recession. The RBA research is based of the findings of the Household and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey in 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 97.5

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 97.5 in the week to 21 June, although weakness was seen in three sub-indices compared to just one in the previous reading. Now 23% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 36% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 35% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 10% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 31% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Official ABS May jobless rate out today – will anyone believe figure?

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Jun-20

Economist Saul Eslake says the May jobless rate would be nearer 13 per cent if those on JobSeeker and the youth allowance were counted as unemployed. Gary Morgan, the executive chairman of Roy Morgan, who conduct their own unemployment survey, says the headline ABS jobless figure is "phony" and the government needs to revise definitions. He says the current definitions were made up after the Second World War, and things have changed a lot. Morgan notes that there are now far more women and part-time workers in the workforce, and people change jobs more. Record uncertainty about the job market and doubts over the relevance of the ‘official’ ABS unemployment rate have prompted calls for more information on the number of welfare recipients and a rethink of how ‘unemployed’ is defined. ABS forecasts for the May unemployment rate will be released on 18 June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 97.5

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.5% to 97.5 in the week to 14 June, after pausing the week before. Now 24% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 35% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 9% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 37% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ remained unchanged at 3.2%. The weekly reading increased 0.2pts to 3.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ