ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5 points to 74.7 in first week of August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.5 points to 74.7 in the week to 2 August; Consumer Confidence is still 15.9pts lower than a year ago (90.6), but it is now 2.8pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.9. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has risen in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, while falling in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 16% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 23% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 18% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence hits a new record low of 76

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

In July 2026 Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 1.5 points to a new record low of 76, marginally below the previous record low in May of 76.1. Business Confidence is also down 27 points from a year ago, while Business Confidence has fallen below 80 in all six States for the first time. Now 18.7% (down 7.4ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2020), while 48.3% (down 3.1ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Only 29.1% (down 4.3ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32.8% (up 1.3ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, a new record low of only 25.5% (down 3.9ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 48% (up 0.2ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Extreme mortgage stress increases nationally, driven by people on lower incomes and in lower socio-economic quintiles

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

Roy Morgan’s Single Source research shows that an estimated 1.06 million mortgage holders (19.8%) were ‘Extremely at Risk’ of mortgage stress in the six months to June 2026, up from 16.7% in December 2025, and 19.3% higher than in June 2024 (just before the reworked Stage 3 tax cuts took effect). The proportion of mortgage holders who are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress (a less strict measure) has in turn risen from 25.2% in December 2025 to 28.5% in June 2026; this equates to 1.53 million mortgage holders. Mortgage stress eased from June 2024 to December 2025, driven by factors such as real wage growth as inflation declined, income tax cuts, home loan interest rate cuts and a rising sharemarket. However, renewed increases in interest rates and inflation in 2026 are putting renewed pressure on mortgage stress. A key cohort driving high levels of extreme mortgage stress are lower income earners with household incomes of less than $100,000, and people in the lower socio-economic quintiles.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bullock rings alarm on living standards

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jul-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that slowing productivity growth is making the domestic economy more vulnerable to global shocks. She also stated that the nation’s living standards will continue to stagnate unless the issue of productivity is addressed. Bullock also said the RBA will be open to further interest rate rises if this is deemed necessary to achieve its mandate of keeping the unemployment rate as low as sustainably possible while returning inflation to its target range of 2-3 per cent. Inflation data for the June quarter will be released today, and could determine whether there is another official interest rate rise in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.9% in late July – down 0.1% points from the month of June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jul-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined slightly in the month of June but have stabilised so far during July as the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated and are at 5.9% for the week of 20-26 July, down 0.1% points from the month of June. The latest weekly reading is 0.3% points below the average for Inflation Expectations of 6.2% over the 22 weeks since the Iran War began. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for June shows the measure at 6% for the month – down 0.3% points from May. Inflation Expectations spiked to a record monthly high of 7% for April following the US and Israel attack on Iran, but then dropped significantly; however, the recent renewal of fighting has sent Inflation Expectations back up for three straight weeks since early July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,113 Australians aged 14+ in June 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.4 points to 71.2 – lowest rating since mid-June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jul-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.4 points to 71.2 in the week to 26 July; Consumer Confidence is now 15.5pts lower than a year ago (86.7), and 0.6pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.8. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has fallen in the five mainland States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 16% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 17% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 75.6 in mid-July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jul-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 75.6 in the week to 19 July; however, Consumer Confidence is 10.7pts lower than a year ago (86.3), although it is now 3.8pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.8. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence was driven up by a large increase in New South Wales, but it was unchanged in Victoria and down in Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. Now 17% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 20% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Standard of living worst in a century

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Original article by Michael Read, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 22-Jul-26

New data shows that Australia’s GDP growth per capita has been just four per cent so far in the current decade, while there is unlikely to be significant growth in coming years. This could potentially put the nation on track to record the lowest growth since the 1910s, when GDP per capita fell by 12 per cent due to factors such as the economic impact of World War I, a severe drought and the Spanish flu pandemic. Former Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned that Australia’s living standards have stagnated and there has been no net growth in per capita incomes for at least seven years. He adds that fundamental public policy reform is needed in order to encourage businesses to invest in Australia.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In June risk of mortgage stress up 1.3% points after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates in May to 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jul-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 30.3% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to June 2026, up 1.3% points from May. This is equivalent to 1,606,000 people (up 68,000 on a month earlier), and the highest level of mortgage stress since the amended Stage 3 income tax cuts were introduced at the end of June 2024. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up by 115,000 on a year ago, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in May and August 2025, and then raised them in February, March and May 2026. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,096,000 (20.7% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

June Real Unemployment in Australia up 1% to 11.7%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jul-26

In June 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment rose 156,000 to 1,860,000 (11.7% of the workforce, up 1%), while under-employment fell 15,000 to 1,488,000 (down 0.1% to 9.4%). In total, 3.35 million Australians (21.1% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,888,000 in June, up 28,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.7% of Australians aged 14+. Overall employment was down 128,000 to 14,028,000. The decline was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 279,000 to 4,956,000, and equivalent to 35.3% of employed Australians). In contrast, full-time employment was up 151,000 to 9,072,000 (equivalent to 64.7% of employed Australians). The June Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED