ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 5.7pts to 104.3 – its lowest since early November 2020 as lockdown extended in Sydney and Melbourne goes into fifth lockdown

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.7pts to 104.3 on July 17/18, after the Greater Sydney lockdown was extended until at least the end of July and Melbourne entered an unprecedented fifth lockdown late last week. Consumer Confidence is now sitting clearly below the 2021 weekly average of 110.9; however, it is still 13.6 points higher than the same week a year ago (90.7). Now 29% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 24% (up 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020). Meanwhile, 36% (down 7ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (up 6ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – an overall swing of 13ppts and the worst result for this question since early November 2020.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.2pts to 110.0 after Government increases support to those in lockdown in NSW

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.2pts to 110.0 on July 10/11, after the Federal Government announced an increase in support to those impacted by the lockdown in Sydney. Consumer Confidence is now sitting just below the 2021 weekly average of 111.2; however, it remains 18.4 points higher than the same week a year ago (91.6). Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 39% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (down 1 ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 17% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 18% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 43% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment and under-employment soar in Queensland during the pandemic but are relatively unchanged in NSW & Victoria

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-21

A special analysis of Roy Morgan’s latest unemployment estimates by State during the June 2021 quarter compared to the December 2019 quarter (prior to the pandemic), shows significant changes in two States. Queensland appears as the big ‘loser’ of the COVID-19 pandemic so far; total unemployment and under-employment is now at 23.5% of the workforce, an increase of 6.6% points since the December 2019 quarter – and now clearly higher than any other State. In contrast, South Australia has handled the pandemic better than any other state on the employment front, with total unemployment and under-employment now at 17.4% of the workforce and below the national average – a decline of 6.5% points on the December 2019 quarter. South Australia has had fewer days in lockdown of any State and is the only mainland State not to experience a lockdown so far during 2021. However, despite spending more time in lockdown than the other States, the lowest unemployment and under-employment is again to be found in the two largest States. New South Wales had the lowest unemployment and under-employment of any State at 16.5% of the workforce in the June 2021quarter, an increase of 1.3% points, while Victoria was second at 17.1% (up 0.1% points). down 0.4% points on late 2019.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.4pts to 107.8 after multiple major Australian cities placed into lockdown

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.4pts to 107.8 on July 3/4, after multiple Australian cities were concurrently placed under lockdown. Consumer Confidence plunged in Sydney (down 10pts) and Brisbane (down 8.7pts) and is now sitting below the 2021 weekly average of 111.2; however, it remains 15.7 points higher than the same week a year ago (92.1). Now 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 16% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 19% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 41% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Employment surge turns up heat on rates

Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Jul-21

Further indications that the Australian economy is continuing to strengthen may prompt the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate earlier than expected. There was three per cent growth in job advertisements during June, according to data from the ANZ Bank, and the number of job ads is now 39.1 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, revised data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail spending increased by 0.4 per cent in May and 7.7 per cent over the year to May. The COVID-19 lockdown in Greater Sydney is tipped to hit retail sales for June, although economists expect any impact to be short-lived.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment drops to 9.4% in June – before three States enforce COVID lockdowns

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.39 million Australians were unemployed in June, down 99,000 on May, for an unemployment rate of 9.4%. The workforce in June was 14,768,000 – comprised of 13,374,000 employed Australians (an increase of 305,000) and 1,394,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 99,000). In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.26 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) were underemployed – working part-time but looking for more work. This was unchanged from May. In total, 2.65 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or underemployed in June, a drop of 98,000 on May. The decrease was driven by the fall in unemployment. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.4% for June is more than 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2021 of 5.1%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Current account surplus gives Australian economy breathing room, says Bank of America

Original article by Michael Janda
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 2-Jul-21

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation has posted a trade surplus of $9.68bn for May, slightly below the record $9.87bn surplus in January. Exports rose by 6.1 per cent in May, amid continued strong demand for commodities such as iron ore. The steel input has been a key driver of Australia’s trade surpluses. Tony Morriss from Bank of America notes that while the iron ore price is widely tipped to fall, the decline may not be as sharp as anticipated, as the massive infrastructure program in the US will help to offset any fall in demand from China as that nation’s stimulus measures are wound back.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down only slightly in June to 128.3; but new COVID-19 restrictions a clear threat to the recovery

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jun-21

In June 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 1pt (-0.8%) to 128.3. Despite the fall, Business Confidence is 33.3pts (+35.1%) higher than a year ago (95.0), and it is now 14.4pts above the long-term average of 113.9. Business Confidence has now averaged 124.7 during the first six months of 2021, the best start to a year for the Index for a decade since 2011. The index also averaged 124.7 in the first half of 2011 during the middle of the ‘Mining Boom’. This is the first time in the history of the index that Business Confidence has been above 120 for seven consecutive months from December 2020 to June 2021. Some 64.8% of businesses now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months and 58.4% say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. The Business Confidence result for June is based on interviewing conducted before the Sydney-wide lockdown and the latest restrictions introduced in several States announced over the weekend.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 112.2 but down in Sydney (-4.6%) as Melbourne recovers (+2.4%)

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jun-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 112.2 on June 26/27, although there were contrasting movements in Australia’s two largest cities; Sydney was down 4.6% while Melbourne increased 2.4% on a week ago as the city continued to recover from its recent lockdown. Consumer Confidence is just above the 2021 weekly average of 111.4, and 19.2pts higher than the same week a year ago (93). Now 28% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 25% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 13% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 15% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 45% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. Interviewing this week was largely conducted before the Sydney-wide lockdown began on Saturday night and before many restrictions and border closures were announced in other States.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 112.4 after Melbourne’s restrictions ease further

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: 3 : 23-Jun-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 112.4 on June 19/20, as Melbourne’s lockdown restrictions eased further. This week’s small increase was driven by more Australians saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and more Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months. Consumer Confidence is now above the 2021 weekly average of 111.3 and is 14.9pts higher than the same week a year ago. Looking at future conditions, over a fifth of Australians, 22% (up 1ppt), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to only 13% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’. A decreasing plurality of Australians, 42% (down 3ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 24% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ