ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 110.9

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.2% to 110.9 in the week ended 13 October, its second straight weekly loss; confidence remains below its long-run average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions gained 0.2%, while views towards future financial conditions were up 0.7%. However. consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 1% and views towards future economic conditions lost 1.7%. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ fell 3.9% after two successive gains. Inflation expectations remained stable at 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Housing construction ticks up slightly in June

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 10-Oct-19

New figures show that residential building starts increased by 1.1 per cent in the June quarter, following declines in the previous two quarters. A 10.6 per cent decline in detached-housing starts was offset by a 21 per cent increase in apartment starts. Meanwhile, housing starts for the year to June totalled 196,867; this was the first year-on-year fall since September 2014. Ernst & Young’s chief economist Joanne Masters expects a further decline in residential construction activity.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, TAMAWOOD LIMITED – ASX TWD

Evans warns of negative impact of rate cuts

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Oct-19

Financial markets expect the cash rate to fall to 0.5 per cent by February, and market pricing suggests that there is more than a 50 per cent chance of further rate cuts by mid-2020. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says the Reserve Bank should take note of declining consumer confidence when considering further rate cuts, and the "possible unintended consequences" of any move toward negative interest rates. The general consensus of economists is that fiscal policy would be more effective than unconventional monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

QE would kill finance and capitalism, McKibbin warns

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 9-Oct-19

Former Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin has cautioned against any move to reduce implement quantitative easing in Australia. He argues that unconventional monetary policy in Europe is merely propping up financially unsustainable businesses while restricting access to capital for new businesses. He adds that reducing interest rates below a certain level merely distorts capital without providing any economic stimulus. Some economists expect the cash rate to fall to 0.5 per cent in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reverses to 112.3

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Oct-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.1% to 112.3 in the week ended 6 October, after gaining 4.2% in the previous reading. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 4.7%, while views towards future financial conditions lost 5.0%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 1.7% and views towards future economic conditions fell 1.1%. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ continued to recover after falling to a 10-year low in recent weeks, although it remains below its long-term average. Inflation expectations rose 0.1 ppt to 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Trade surplus declines on lower iron ore price

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 4-Oct-19

Official figures show that Australia recorded a trade surplus of $5.9bn in August, compared with a record $8bn in June. The total value of exports of goods and services fell by $1.4bn in August, and imports fell by $137m. A downturn in the price of iron and coal was the major contributor to the lower trade surplus. The value of iron ore exports declined by 12 per cent during the month, with the price of the steel input falling from a peak of $US120 per tonne to $US91. However, iron ore export volumes increased by 15 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps to 114.7

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Oct-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 4.2% to 114.7 in the week ended 29 September, closing above its long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 6.9% and remain above the long-run average, while views towards future financial conditions gained 5.9%; both subindices remain above their long-term averages. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 3.5%, and views towards future economic conditions gained 5.7%; despite the jump, both subindices remain below their long-term averages. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index rose 7.1% after falling to a 10-year low in the previous week, and it remains well below its long run average. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian reliance on China at record

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-Oct-19

Data from the Australian National University shows that China now accounts for 38 per cent of Australia’s total exports, compared with 34 per cent in 2018. The value of the nation’s exports to China during the first seven months of 2019 totalled $84bn, which is about $12bn per month, up from $9.8bn a month in 2018. In contrast, Japan’s share of Australian exports was just 16 per cent in 2018, having peaked at more than 30 per cent in 1976.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, VALE SA

Major banks hit as credit growth stalls

Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 1-Oct-19

Official data shows that annual growth in credit fell to an eight-year low of 2.9 per cent in the year to August, after rising by just 0.2 per for the month. Housing credit and business credit also increased by 0.2 per cent in August, with growth of 3.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively for the year to August. Ed Henning of CLSA anticipates a slight improvement in credit growth in coming months, although Chris Read of Morgan Stanley says credit growth is unlikely to rebound in the near-term unless there is an upturn in housing turnover as well as prices.

CORPORATES
CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SWITZER ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, MST MARQUEE, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

RBA chief ready to cut rates again

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 25-Sep-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that the central bank is prepared to further reduce the cash rate if necessary. He has cited factors such as the downward trend in global interest rates and a ‘surprise’ slowdown in the domestic economy, which grew by just 1.4 per cent in the year to June. Lowe’s speech in regional New South Wales has heightened speculation that the RBA will reduce the cash rate to a new low of 0.75 per cent in October. George Tharenou of UBS expects the cash rate to fall to just 0.25 per cent by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARMIDALE BUSINESS CHAMBER, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY