Author: roymorgansocial

PM puts Palmer deal in play

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Original article by Simon Benson, Sid Maher, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Apr-19

The Coalition is believed to be finalising a preferences deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, although negotiations regarding some seats are said to be continuing. A deal with UAP would be likely to bolster the Coalition’s prospects of retaining a number of marginal seats, as well as regaining seats such as Lindsay and Herbert. Such a deal could also ensure that Palmer secures a seat in the Senate.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, PALMER UNITED PARTY

Workplace hitch to PM growth pitch

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Original article by Andrew Tillett, Matthew Cranston, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Apr-19

Council of Small Business Organisations CEO Peter Strong says industrial relations reform will be essential if the federal government is to achieve its goal of creating 250,000 new small businesses over the next five years. Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson says that in addition to workplace reforms, the government must invest in training and take action to reduce power prices. The Institute of Public Affairs adds that action to reduce the red tape burden is also necessary.

CORPORATES
COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS LIMITED, QUANTUM BUSINESS FINANCE PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Top end of town pays $57bn tax

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 24-Apr-19

Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that nearly 430,000 people had taxable income of at least $180,000 in fiscal 2017, an increase of 26 per cent since fiscal 2013. The total net tax they paid increased from $43 billion to $57bn. There was also a 17 per cent increase in the number of people with taxable income of $37,000 to $80,000, with their share of the total tax take rising from $47bn to $62bn. Tax cuts have been a key focus of the election campaign, but economics professor Richard Holden says a simpler option is to peg the tax system to wage inflation.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Budget close to surplus and a year early

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 24-Apr-19

The federal government had an underlying cash deficit of $8.1bn in the first nine months of 2018-19, according to monthly Budget data from the Department of Finance. This is $4.6bn lower than had been projected in the mid-year Budget update. Peter Downes of Outlook Economics says the final quarter of a financial year tends to be good in terms of government revenue, and a balanced budget for 2018-19 is possible. The government expects the Budget to return to surplus in 2019-20.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Bank loan losses to reduce dividends

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 21 : 24-Apr-19

Citigroup has downplayed investors’ concerns about the high dividend payout ratios of Australia’ major banks. Brendan Sproule of Citigroup says banks are likely to absorb one-off costs rather than reduce their payout ratios. Instead, a sharp increase in loan losses is seen to be the main threat to continued high dividend ratios. Sproules adds that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s review of its bank capital framework is unlikely to impact on Australia’s major banks.

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CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

ALP vow: permanent work for casuals

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Apr-19

Labor has doubled down on the Coalition’s commitment to legislate to allow casual workers to apply to become permanent employees after 12 months of regular and ongoing work with the same employer. Labor will also amend the Fair Work Act to allow such workers to legally challenge a refusal of their request to become a permanent employee. More than 50 per cent of Australia’s 2.6 million casual employees have worked for the same employer for at least 12 months.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-19

The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors. The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019. The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%. Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%). Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction. These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week, although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Analysts predict iron ore prices have hit peak

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Original article by Cole Latimer
The Age – Page: 25 : 24-Apr-19

UBS has forecast that the iron ore price will average $US83 per tonne in 2019, warning that the steel input’s recent high of around $US93/tonne is not sustainable. The investment bank says recent supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall over the next 12 months. Expectations of a lower iron ore price have also contributed to UBS’s decision to downgrade its recommendation on BHP’s shares from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’. PhillipCapital expects iron ore to average $US78/tonne in 2019.

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UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, PHILLIP CAPITAL LIMITED, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

FOMO or TINA? Stocks hit seven-month high but rocky road ahead

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 24-Apr-19

The S&P/ASX 200 has gained 12 per cent so far in 2019, making its best start to a calendar year in two decades. The benchmark index is now trading on a 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 15.75 times, compared with a long-term average of around 14 times. Although ‘fear of missing out’ has been a key driver of the domestic market, ‘there is no alternative’ to shares has probably also played a role in the recent rise. However, investors should also be mindful of the adage ‘sell in May and go away’.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Over a quarter of electors (27%) yet to make up their minds and election up for grabs – by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research on ABC NewsRadio

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted for the Australian Futures Project last week on April 17-18, 2019 with a cross-section of 1,546 electors shows 27% of electors are yet to make up their mind who they will vote for in next month’s Federal Election and 44% of them say no party is addressing the issues that matter to them. Key demographics yet to make up their minds include 38% of Australians aged 25-34 years old and 33% of Queensland electors. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine highlighted that although the ALP remains the favourite, the large number of undecided voters means there could still be a turning point in the election campaign that costs the ALP victory. This is the probably first election that I’ve seen where you’ve really had some fundamental issues at war with each other. At this election what the electorate wants is they want a healthy economy, they want the environment cared for and the want the cost of living preserved or not ‘flying through the roof’. So these three things don’t sit naturally together. You can’t just have all of them. Where does the money come from? Somebody has to think about these things. So they are really playing out in this election. We know from surveying people’s views about the environment and Climate change until 2008 and the Global Financial Crisis everyone was saying the environment was the most important issue for them. Then when the Financial Crisis came the issue became what are we going to do about it and who is going to pay. Now that issue is what’s being played out today. The interview with Levine was conducted before the latest Federal voting results shown above were available. Click on link to listen to 5min ABC NewsRadio interview with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY