Author: roymorgansocial

Victorian State Voting Intention: Greens on track to retain Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

There has been much speculation about whether the Greens will be able to hold the three Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond at this year’s Victorian State Election on 28 November. Special Roy Morgan analysis of State voting trends in these seats shows that the Greens’ State Vote is holding up at an average of 41% in these electorates, clearly ahead of the ALP on 35%. Support for the Liberals is at just 14%, while only 2% of electors support One Nation, and 1% support a Teal Independent. Another 7% support Other Parties or other Independents, according to interviewing with 643 electors in the three electorates in the 12 months to August 2026. It is important to note that there has been no sign of a swing to One Nation in these seats in the last few months.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, ONE NATION PARTY

Australian real unemployment up 0.1% to 11.7%, with workforce and employment both marginally contracting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

In August 2026, Australian ‘real unemployment’ rose by 15,000 to 1,848,000 (11.7% of the workforce, up 0.1%), and under-employment increased by 50,000 to 1,445,000 (up 0.3% to 9.1%). In total, 3.29 million Australians (20.8% of the workforce, up 0.4%) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,804,000 in August, down 9,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.3% (down 0.1%) of Australians aged 14+. Overall employment was down 24,000 to 13,956,000 in August. The decrease was driven by a fall in full-time employment (down 81,000 to 9,012,000), and equivalent to 64.6% of employed Australians. In contrast, part-time employment was up 57,000 to 4,944,000 (equivalent to 35.4% of employed Australians). The August Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

New-home sales national freefall

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 16-Sep-26

Data from the Housing Industry Association shows that sales of new home in Australia fell by 10 per cent month-on-month in August, and by 19.3 per cent in the last three months. The data is based on the HIA’s survey of major home builders across the nation’s five largest capital cities. The HIA’s chief economist Tim Reardon says the federal government’s budget changes tax have weakened market confidence at the same time that three interest rate increases have reduced household borrowing capacity and increased mortgage repayments. The HIA data also shows that sales of new homes have fallen by 7.7 per cent year-on-year.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2pts to 73.9 as confidence about personal finances increases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2pts to 73.9 in the week to 13 September; Consumer Confidence is still 12pts lower than a year ago (85.3), but 1.5pts above the 2026 weekly average of 72.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has increased in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while it is down in Queensland for a second straight week and unchanged in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 23% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

One Nation support is strongest among electors born in South Africa and Italy and weakest among electors born in Asia

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

New Roy Morgan analysis into the voting intentions of electors by country/region of birth shows that Australian electors born in South Africa (36% supporting One Nation), Italy (30%), and Mainland Europe as a whole (29%) are significantly more likely to vote for One Nation than the average elector (24%), according to interviewing conducted with a representative cross-section of 26,418 electors during the first seven months of 2026. In contrast, electors born in Mainland China (5% support One Nation), Nepal (6%), Pakistan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka (all 7%), India (8%), the US and Canada (9%), Asia (9%), Malaysia (10%), Africa – not including South Africa (11%) and Central and South America (12%), the Philippines (16%), and the Middle East (17%) are all far less likely to vote for One Nation than the average Australian. Voters born in Australia (25% support One Nation), the UK (23%) and New Zealand (24%) were not significantly different to the average elector (24%) when it came to how likely they were to support One Nation.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, ONE NATION PARTY

The Sydney Swans are Australia’s most widely supported AFL club for a record 21 straight years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

The Sydney Swans have topped the annual Roy Morgan AFL supporter ladder for a 21st straight year with 1,131,000 supporters, although this is down 166,000 (-12.8%) on a year ago. However, the Swans are still over 60,000 supporters ahead of Back-to-Back Premier the Brisbane Lions with 1,065,000 supporters, up 111,000 (+11.6%) on a year ago. Both the Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans are set to play in Preliminary Finals this weekend for the chance to play off in this year’s AFL Grand Final. Beaten Wildcard Finalist Collingwood is the most widely supported Victorian club with 920,000 supporters, an increase of 47,000 (+5.4%) on a year ago. The AFL supporter base has continued to consolidate in the last few years, and 9,432,000 Australians now support an AFL club, up more than 480,000 (+5.5%) compared to 2022. In addition, some 9,307,000 Australians have watched at least one AFL match on TV, up over 1.5 million (+20.3%) compared to 2022.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, SYDNEY SWANS FOOTBALL CLUB, BRISBANE LIONS FOOTBALL CLUB, COLLINGWOOD FOOTBALL CLUB

Green goal shattered as Bowen faces COP heat

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Original article by Perry Williams, Richard Ferguson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 16-Sep-26

Modelling suggests that renewables will account for just 53 per cent of Australia’s electricity generation by 2030, well below the federal government’s target of 82 per cent. This projection is based on the number of renewable energy projects that were being built at the end of June; the modelling shows that although sufficient renewable energy and battery-storage projects have been proposed to reach the 2030 target, not enough of them will be completed by this date. Meanwhile, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen’s Turkish counterpart and COP31 president Murat Kurum says his nation will make final decisions regarding the climate summit. Kurum says Bowen is only the president of negotiations.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER

Unions ask umpire to end BHP fight

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 16-Sep-26

A coalition of unions has formally rejected BHP’s revised pay offer for workers at its Port Hedland iron ore export hub. The unions will instead urge the Fair Work Commission to make an intractable bargaining declaration with regard to the dispute. The unions’ move to forced arbitration under the federal government’s new industrial relations laws reflects the fact that they are more likely to get what they want via the FWC than industrial action. BHP has not ruled out putting its offer to a direct ballot of Port Hedland workers.

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BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Westpac: 70pc of employees use AI daily

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 16-Sep-26

Westpac has told investors that more than 95 per cent of its employees now use artificial intelligence tools at least once a month, compared with 69 per cent at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, more than 70 per cent of the bank’s staff have integrated AI tools into their everyday workflow, up from just 14 per cent in January. AI tools have also reduced the timeline for migrating St George customers to Westpac’s banking platform by two years. Westpac’s chief data, digital and AI officer Andrew McMullan says the banking industry is undergoing one of the most significant shifts it has ever seen.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED

Investors brace for end of four-year bull run

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Original article by Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 16-Sep-26

The Australian sharemarket has shed 4.4 per cent in the last month, while the S&P 500 is down 1.6 per cent. Meanwhile, Australian and US bond yields are continuing to rise, the Iran war-induced surge in the crude oil price is putting upward pressure on inflation, and there is growing expectation of official interest rate rises in both Australia and the US. Rich Dell from insurance broking and risk management group Marsh says such factors will heighten the risk of a sharemarket correction, and potentially the end of the four-year bull run.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MARSH INCORPORATED