Cure for housing fix ‘worse than disease’: UBS

Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 23-Aug-19

Investment bank UBS has warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move towards extremely low interest rates risks reflating the residential property ‘bubble’. The ultra-low rates are also putting pressure on the dividend policies and margin levels of the nation’s large banks, while plans by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reduce related-party exposure limits with regard to Tier 1 capital will put pressure on the banks’ capital.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA RADIATION LABORATORIES, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Where’s the crisis? Westpac skewers talk of quantitative easing

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 22-Aug-19

Lyn Cobley, the head of institutional banking at Westpac, says unconventional monetary policy was necessary in response to the global financial crisis. However, she says there is no need for the Reserve Bank to pursue quantitative easing at present, as the Australian economy and the nation’s banking system are "far from crisis". She adds that Westpac’s senior institutional bankers generally agree that further reducing interest rates would have little impact on the borrowing and investment intentions of their clients.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

More rate cuts in RBA mix to guard economy

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Aug-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monthly board meeting show that the central bank will be open to further easing of monetary policy if the economic outlook worsens. The minutes also indicate that RBA board members expect that official interest rates may need to remain at a record low for some time in order to achieve the central bank’s inflation target. However, the RBA also indicated that it will assess developments in the global and domestic economies before taking any further monetary policy action. Sally Auld of JP Morgan does not expect a rate cut until February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Bond signal: ultra-low rates for a decade

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 9-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate below 0.5 per cent within six months, and overnight indexed swaps pricing suggests that the cash rate will average 0.84 per cent over the next decade. David Plank of the ANZ Bank warns that the central bank will most likely need to adopt a quantitative easing policy within 5-10 years; he adds that this will probably not be necessary in the next year or so, unless there is a significant downturn in the global economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS

RBA’s Lowe faces grilling over cheap money

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-Aug-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe will appear before a parliamentary committee on 9 August. His testimony is likely to attract increased scrutiny after the central bank’s New Zealand counterpart reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points. The House of Representatives’ economics committee is chaired by Liberal MP Tim Wilson. He says the RBA’s dual rate cuts in June and July and how it expects to eventually begin tightening monetary policy when household debt is rising are among the issues that will come under scrutiny.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Kiwi cut raises the prospect of negative interest rates

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 4 : 8-Aug-19

The Australian dollar reached a 10-year low of $US0.6680 in local trading on 7 August, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points to 1 per cent. Central bank governor Adrian Orr has not ruled out the prospect of negative interest rates or measures such as quantitative easing. The RBNZ’s move is likely to strengthen the case for further monetary policy easing in Australia before the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Aussie 10-year bond yield drops below 1pc

Original article by Patrick Commins, Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 7-Aug-19

The fallout from the escalating trade and currency war between the US and China has seen the yield on Australian 10-year government bonds fall below the cash rate for the first time. The bond yield reached a record low of 0.968 per cent on 6 August, before rising to 1.047 per cent late in trading. Meanwhile, the futures market has priced in an 0.25 per cent reduction in the cash rate by October, after the Reserve Bank left official interest rates unchanged at one per cent at its monthly board meeting.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, QIC LIMITED, ARDEA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, EXANTE DATA

Fed cut lifts pressure on RBA board

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Aug-19

Economists suggest that better-than-expected inflation data for the June quarter will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold in August. The consumer price index rose 0.6 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, inflation remains well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and further monetary policy easing is possible later in 2019 if the unemployment rate does not fall. The US Federal Reserve’s August interest rate cut may also force the RBA to act before the end of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA could cut cash rate as soon as August

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 30-Jul-19

The futures market has priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate for a third consecutive month in August. Inflation data to be released on 31 July may influence the timing of any rate cut; market expectations are for a CPI of 1.5 per cent for the June quarter, below the RBA’s forecast of 1.6 per cent. National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland says the CPI reading would probably need to be around 1.3 per cent or 1.4 per cent for the central bank to reduce the cash rate in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Inflation data set to drift further from RBA target

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 29-Jul-19

The consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg is that Australia’s underlying inflation rate eased from 1.6 per cent to 1.5 per cent in the June quarter. The CPI data to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 31 July is likely to heighten expectations that the Reserve Bank will further ease monetary policy by October, while it might also boost the local sharemarket.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX