MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Handouts row: Take a hike, says Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Thomas Henry
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-May-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.35 per cent yesterday will add to the pressure that families and businesses are already facing. He adds that the federal governments intends to play a helpful rather than harmful role in the fight against inflation. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has cautioned against giving households more money in next week’s budget, arguing that this would make it harder for the central bank to bring inflation under control. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the government should reduce public spending in the budget to help alleviate underlying inflation pressures, while also introducing reforms aimed at boosting productivity and capacity in the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Traders see end in sight for RBA rate rises

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Original article by Cecile Lefort, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-May-26

Money markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase official interest rates by another 25 basis points by September; at 4.6 per cent, the cash rate would be at its highest level since 2011. However, bond traders now expect just one more rate rise in 2026, with the chances of two more increases having been pared back from 80 per cent to 65 per cent. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says the RBA’s revised economic forecasts imply that its preferred measure of underlying inflation will return to its target of 2.5 per cent by February. He says this suggests that the central bank could switch to an easing bias in late 2026 or early 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Aussie dollar to fly as RBA goes it alone on rates

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-26

The US Federal Reserve, its British and Canadian counterparts and the European Central Bank are widely tipped to leave official interest rates on hold this week. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase the cash rate next week, for the third time in 2026; inflation data for March is likely to strengthen the case for another rate rise. Foreign exchange strategies note that the Australian dollar and local bonds are likely to benefit from the widening gap between domestic and international interest rates.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA delivers recession warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Interest rate increases set to hit mortgage holders in Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania the hardest

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Feb-26

The most recent Roy Morgan data on mortgage stress shows that 24.5% of mortgage holders are now ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress. Last week’s interest rate rise is expected to increase this to 25.3%, and a 25 basis point interest rate rise in March to 4.1% would increase this to 27.2% (1,322,000 mortgage holders). A deep dive into Roy Morgan’s data on mortgage stress by State shows that the situation is worst in Tasmania; 29.8% of mortgage holders are classified as ‘At Risk’, and this will increase by 3.8% points to 32.6% if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates again in March. In clear second place is Victoria with 27.2% of mortgage holders classified as ‘At Risk’ and set to increase to 29.9% (up 2.7% points) following another RBA interest rate increase. However, a potential RBA interest rate increase will hit hardest in Queensland and would mean 26.8% of mortgage holders are ‘At Risk’ – an increase of 3.2% points. Overall, 17.1% of mortgage holders are ‘Extremely At Risk’, and this will increase by 2.4% points to 19.5% if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates in March (947,000 mortgage holders).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Treasurer under pressure to fix budget after RBA lifts rates for first time in two years

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Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Feb-26

The Opposition contends that Treasurer Jim Chalmers must accept responsibility for yesterday’s increase in official interest rates to 3.85 per cent. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien said in parliament that the 25 basis point increase is a direct consequence of the govermment’s "addiction to spending", arguing that it has kept inflation higher for longer. Chalmers has rejected suggestions that government spending has contributed to a rising inflation rate, noting that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement did not mention it. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has declined to commence on whether government spending is to blame for rising inflation, and noted that the central bank considers both private and public sector spending. The Reserve Bank now does not expect inflation to return to its target range of 2-3 per cent until mid-2028.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Overheating economy pushes RBA to uncomfortable hike talks

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Dec-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected, given the rise in both headline and underlying inflation in November. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has stated that the underlying momentum in the economy suggests that further interest rate cuts may not be needed. Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says his firm believes that the RBA may increase the cash rate in the September quarter, while Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura expects interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2026. Financial markets in turn have priced in the potential for two interest rate rises next year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA cautious on any further rate cuts

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Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Nov-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board meeting for November outline the circumstances under which it would consider further interest rate cuts. The minutes indicate that the RBA would only consider a rate cut if there is a material deterioration in the labour market or if households become more cautious about spending. The monetary policy board noted that inflationary pressures would be weaker under both scenarios, making interest rate cuts more likely. However, the RBA expects both the unemployment rate and economic growth to remain steady over the next several years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation is going north, wages south

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

‘Not confident’: RBA pours cold water on Labor’s housing dream

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Oct-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia had been widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at its monetary policy board meeting yesterday. Financial markets have priced in a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in November, but RBA governor Michele Bullock says progress on returning core inflation to its mid-point target of 2.5 per cent will determine the next move on interest rates. Quarterly inflation data to be released ahead of the next board meeting is likely to be crucial. Meanwhile, Bullock has warned that federal government action to boost supply is unlikely to address the housing market’s structural deficit in the next two years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA