Roy Morgan predicts Christmas sales within 0.1% – again

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Roy Morgan’s 2018 retail sales forecast, undertaken in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), predicted total retail sales growth of 2.9% to $51.479 billion for the most important retailing period of the year from 9 November to Christmas Eve. This is just 0.1% higher than the 2.8% growth achieved. The accuracy for 2018 matches the accuracy of a year ago, when Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas sales forecasts were also within 0.1% of the actual retail sales for the period. There was growth across five of the six categories measured in the pre-Christmas period in 2018, with spending on Food growing the fastest, up 4% to $20.979 billion. Also growing impressively was the Clothing, Footwear & Accessories category, which grew 3.8% to $4.056 billion, while Other Retailing grew by 3.5% to $7.375 billion. All three of these categories grew at a slightly greater rate than Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas forecasts. The Roy Morgan-ARA Christmas sales forecasts are based on data taken from the ABS Retail Trade Catalogue 8501.0. Note that online sales through Australian retail stores are included in the retail figures. Sales forecasts are determined by historical retail trade data from the ABS, Roy Morgan’s Consumer Confidence and unemployment data, and various other data relating to macro-economic conditions.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

JB Hi-Fi surges as tech reigns

Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 : 12-Feb-19

Consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi has posted a 2018-19 interim net profit of $160.1m, which is 5.5 per cent higher than previously. JB Hi-Fi has forecast that its full-year net profit will be within the range of $237m to $245m; full-year sales are expected to be $7.1bn, after sales totalled $3.843bn in the first half. CEO Richard Murray says consumers still seem to be buying gadgets such as smartphones and internet-connected fridges, at a time when many discretionary retailers are struggling.

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, THE GOOD GUYS, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Housing bust, lower wages hit retail sales

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in December, while sales grew by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter. The figures also show that Western Australia is the only state that did not experience a decline in retail sales during December. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank says consumer spending is being affected by the downturn in the housing market. He notes that this is particular evident in New South Wales, where house prices have fallen the most and retail sales were down 1.1 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Supermarkets increase dominance in fresh food

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-19

Australia’s total fresh food market (comprising meat, bread, deli, fruit, vegetables and seafood) now has an annual retail value of $38.8bn. Supermarkets currently hold 71.4% of this market, up from 69.0% 12 months ago and representing a continuation of a long-term trend. Woolworths has increased its lead over Coles in the 12 months to September 2018, with a market share gain in fresh food of 1.0% points (to 27.4%), compared to a gain of 0.6% points for Coles (to 24.6%). Aldi showed the second biggest gain, being up 0.8% points to 9.8%, leaving it in third place and well ahead of IGA on 6.0%. Of the smaller fresh food retailers, butchers showed the biggest decline, down 1.1% points to 7.0%, followed by fruit shops, down 0.7% points to 6.7%. These are some of the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s ‘Supermarket & Fresh Food Currency Report-September 2018’, which is based on in-depth interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 consumers per annum in their homes, including detailed questionnaires of over 12,000 grocery buyers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS SUPERMARKETS, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, IGA

Kogan blames Apple for dive in global sales

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 18-Jan-19

Kogan.com has reported revenue growth of 9.7 per cent for the first half of 2018-19. The listed e-commerce group’s private label and partner brand sales rose by 23.6 per cent and 92.8 per cent respectively, but sales of global brands fell by 47 per cent. Founder Ruslan Kogan notes that sales of Apple products fell sharply during the period, although sales of other global brand rose by 8.5 per cent. Kogan.com has also been affected by the federal government’s move to impose GST on goods purchased overseas that cost less than $1,000.

CORPORATES
KOGAN.COM LIMITED – ASX KGN, APPLE INCORPORATED, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS COMPANY LIMITED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, GARMIN LIMITED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, BLOOMBERG LP, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

Hayne gets blame for retail spending squeeze

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Jan-19

Australian retailers had mixed fortunes during the crucial Christmas shopping period, according to analysts. Data from ShopperTrak shows that shopping centres recorded a 12.2 per cent decline in customer traffic in December, including a 23 per cent fall in the week to December 30. Meanwhile, retail adviser James Stewart says factors such as falling house prices and tighter access to credit in the wake of the financial services royal commission are weighing on consumer spending. He adds that more retailers are likely to go into administration in 2019 following the recent collapse of clothing chain Ed Harry.

CORPORATES
SHOPPERTRAK INCORPORATED, ED HARRY MENSWEAR, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED – ASX MHJ, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, THE PAS GROUP LIMITED – ASX PGR, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Wesfarmers revamps Kmart after sales shock

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 14 : 15-Jan-19

Wesfarmers has advised that same-store sales for its Kmart unit fell by 0.6 per cent in the first half of 2018-19. Wesfarmers stated that earnings from its department store division, which includes Kmart, would be down around seven per cent for the half-year. Wesfarmers MD Rob Scott said Kmart’s sales decline could be attributed to a range of factors, including lower demand for womenswear and its decision to no longer sell DVDs.

CORPORATES
WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX CGC, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD

Costco hits critical mass as sales soar

Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 3-Jan-19

Costco Australia has advised that it posted a net profit of $29.52m in 2018, compared with $13.495m in 2017. Costco now boasts more than 225,000 members and its annual revenue is approaching the $2bn mark. The US-based group currently has 10 warehouse stores in Australia, and analysts believe that there is scope for more than 20 stores. Costco Australia CEO Patrick Noone says the local retail market is very competitive, but the company is enjoying strong sales growth in both food and non-food products.

CORPORATES
COSTCO WHOLESALE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS SUPERMARKETS, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, KAUFLAND STIFTUNG & CO KG, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED

Retailers hope for big bang finish

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-18

The Australian Retailers Association expects consumers to spend nearly $15bn during the last five trading days before Christmas. It still anticipates that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. Many retailers are also counting on a spike in sales during the final days before Christmas, after less price discounting than in 2017. Meanwhile, Craig Woolford of Citigroup says consumers may spend less during the traditional post-Christmas clearance sales due to the impact of recent online promotions such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, VEND LIMITED, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, REBEL SPORT LIMITED

Foodland edges out Aldi for customer satisfaction

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Dec-18

New research from Roy Morgan shows that customer satisfaction with Foodland in the six months to October was 91%, giving the South Australia-based supermarket a third straight monthly win ahead of Aldi on 89%. Coles is on 85%, just ahead of Woolworths on 84% with IGA taking fifth position on 80%. The overall supermarket customer satisfaction across the industry was 85%, representing an overall decline of 6% in customer satisfaction compared to this time a year ago. These are the latest results from Roy Morgan’s ‘Retail Satisfaction Report-Supermarkets’, which is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own home, including over 11,000 main supermarket shoppers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, FOODLAND SUPERMARKETS, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS SUPERMARKETS, IGA