CENTRAL – AUSTRALIA

Bullock rebuffs Labor on rates

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Sep-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has reiterated that "domestic capacity pressures" have been the key driver of the inflation rate, rather than the Iran war. She notes that while the conflict in the Middle East has "made things much worse", there was already excess demand in the economy and the RBA had started increasing the cash rate before the war began. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has persistently claimed that the war has been the primary source of Australia’s inflation challenge, rather than government spending. Bullock has warned that the RBA may need to follow up yesterday’s increase in the cash rate with another one if it is to prevent high inflation from becoming embedded across the economy. Financial markets have fully priced in a rise in the cash rate by February 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA flags need for 5pc jobless rate

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Sep-26

Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently 4.5 per cent, but Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the central bank still considers the labour market to be "tight". Bullock has expressed her view that an unemployment rate of between 4.5 per cent and five per cent will "probably take enough heat out of the labour market" to ease pressure on inflation. Based on the latest jobs data, an unemployment rate of five per cent would mean that about 83,000 additional people would have to be out of work if the size of the labour force remains the same. Meanwhile, with the RBA’s monetary policy board widely tipped to increase the cash rate next week, Bullock has warned that the central bank’s focus must be on keeping inflation expectations in check.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Bullock rings alarm on living standards

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jul-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that slowing productivity growth is making the domestic economy more vulnerable to global shocks. She also stated that the nation’s living standards will continue to stagnate unless the issue of productivity is addressed. Bullock also said the RBA will be open to further interest rate rises if this is deemed necessary to achieve its mandate of keeping the unemployment rate as low as sustainably possible while returning inflation to its target range of 2-3 per cent. Inflation data for the June quarter will be released today, and could determine whether there is another official interest rate rise in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate rise cycle not over yet: Bullock

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 17-Jun-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent. Chalmers has attributed the monetary policy board’s unanimous decision to factors such as the federal government’s "responsible" budget and the US-Iran peace deal. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has not ruled out further interest rate rises, noting that inflation remains high and the government’s budget tax reforms have resulted in increased uncertainty across the economy. Bullock adds that the RBA expects economic growth to slow but it is not forecasting a recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Handouts row: Take a hike, says Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Thomas Henry
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-May-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.35 per cent yesterday will add to the pressure that families and businesses are already facing. He adds that the federal governments intends to play a helpful rather than harmful role in the fight against inflation. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has cautioned against giving households more money in next week’s budget, arguing that this would make it harder for the central bank to bring inflation under control. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the government should reduce public spending in the budget to help alleviate underlying inflation pressures, while also introducing reforms aimed at boosting productivity and capacity in the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Traders see end in sight for RBA rate rises

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Original article by Cecile Lefort, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-May-26

Money markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase official interest rates by another 25 basis points by September; at 4.6 per cent, the cash rate would be at its highest level since 2011. However, bond traders now expect just one more rate rise in 2026, with the chances of two more increases having been pared back from 80 per cent to 65 per cent. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says the RBA’s revised economic forecasts imply that its preferred measure of underlying inflation will return to its target of 2.5 per cent by February. He says this suggests that the central bank could switch to an easing bias in late 2026 or early 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Aussie dollar to fly as RBA goes it alone on rates

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-26

The US Federal Reserve, its British and Canadian counterparts and the European Central Bank are widely tipped to leave official interest rates on hold this week. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase the cash rate next week, for the third time in 2026; inflation data for March is likely to strengthen the case for another rate rise. Foreign exchange strategies note that the Australian dollar and local bonds are likely to benefit from the widening gap between domestic and international interest rates.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Card surcharge ban to lift fees, rates

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 & 17 : 1-Apr-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to ban credit and debit card surcharges from 1 October will provide cost-of-living relief for consumers and businesses. The federal government itself had previously committed only to banning debit card surcharges. The RBA estimates that the move will save consumers about $1.6bn a year; however, Alan Machet from Visa warns that credit card fees and interest rates will rise, while the RBA has conceded that some businesses may seek to offset the abolition of surcharges by increasing their prices. The central bank has also advised that the cap on interchange fees for credit cards will be reduced to 0.3 per cent of the value of a transaction, compared with 0.8 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, VISA INTERNATIONAL

RBA delivers recession warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA issues dire growth warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Feb-26

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest forecasts shows that the domestic economy is expected to grow by just 1.6 per cent in the year to June 2028. This is the central bank’s lowest medium-term growth outlook since it began releasing forecasts in 1990. Stephen Smith from Deloitte Access Economics notes that this compares with the Treasury’s growth forecast of 2.75 per cent in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook; he adds that a GDP hit of more than one percentage point would have "fairly material implications" for budget revenue forecasts. Meanwhile, Labor used question time on Monday to refute suggestions that rising government spending contributed to last week’s interest rate increase.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD