ANZ tips 0.25pc cash rate by May

Original article by Melissa Yeo, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 6-Sep-19

The ANZ Bank’s head of Australian economics David Plank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in October, and he says it is likely to ease monetary policy again in February and May 2020. Plank says factors such as the outlook for unemployment and global uncertainty will see official interest rates fall to a record low of 0.25 per cent. UBS economist George Tharenou also anticipates rate cuts in October and February, and he has flagged the potential for a third rate cut in March.

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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ boss braces for slowdown

Original article by Richard Gluyas, Glenda Korporaal, David Rogers, Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 4-Sep-19

Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate to at least 0.5 per cent, but he says this will do little to stimulate the economy. The RBA signalled on 3 September that official interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period; ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott says record low interest rates demonstrate that central banks are concerned about the global economic outlook. The RBA’s monthly board meeting coincided with the release of data showing that retail spending fell by 0.1 per cent in July, compared with economists’ expectations of an 0.2 per cent increase.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, LATITUDE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Reserve Bank flags QE to lift stagnant economy

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 28-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Guy Debelle says the nation has been a major beneficiary of the rules-based global trading system, and he has warned that the current threats to this system present a major risk to both the Australian and global economies. Debelle has also used an Economic Society speech to indicate that the RBA could be open to quantitative easing if the cash rate falls to 0.5 per cent. However, David Plank of the ANZ Bank says the RBA is unlikely to pursue such a course of action unless the cash rate falls to 0.25 per cent or lower.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

‘Political shocks turn into economic shocks’: RBA chief

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Aug-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has told the global monetary policy conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming that the world is experiencing a period of major political shocks that are turning into economic shocks. Lowe also reiterated the need for governments to provide economic stimulus via infrastructure investment and structural reform, arguing that monetary policy alone is insufficient. Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government lacks a plan to turn around the Australian economy.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF ENGLAND, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Cure for housing fix ‘worse than disease’: UBS

Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 23-Aug-19

Investment bank UBS has warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move towards extremely low interest rates risks reflating the residential property ‘bubble’. The ultra-low rates are also putting pressure on the dividend policies and margin levels of the nation’s large banks, while plans by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reduce related-party exposure limits with regard to Tier 1 capital will put pressure on the banks’ capital.

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UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA RADIATION LABORATORIES, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

More rate cuts in RBA mix to guard economy

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Aug-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monthly board meeting show that the central bank will be open to further easing of monetary policy if the economic outlook worsens. The minutes also indicate that RBA board members expect that official interest rates may need to remain at a record low for some time in order to achieve the central bank’s inflation target. However, the RBA also indicated that it will assess developments in the global and domestic economies before taking any further monetary policy action. Sally Auld of JP Morgan does not expect a rate cut until February.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Bond signal: ultra-low rates for a decade

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 9-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate below 0.5 per cent within six months, and overnight indexed swaps pricing suggests that the cash rate will average 0.84 per cent over the next decade. David Plank of the ANZ Bank warns that the central bank will most likely need to adopt a quantitative easing policy within 5-10 years; he adds that this will probably not be necessary in the next year or so, unless there is a significant downturn in the global economy.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS

RBA lowers GDP, inflation forecasts

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged on 6 August. Central bank governor Philip Lowe again indicated that official interest rates will remain low for some time, and that any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for the unemployment rate and inflation. The inflation rate was 1.6 per cent in the year to June, and the RBA now does not expect it to reach the bottom end of its 2-3 per cent target range until 2021.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Aussie 10-year bond yield drops below 1pc

Original article by Patrick Commins, Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 7-Aug-19

The fallout from the escalating trade and currency war between the US and China has seen the yield on Australian 10-year government bonds fall below the cash rate for the first time. The bond yield reached a record low of 0.968 per cent on 6 August, before rising to 1.047 per cent late in trading. Meanwhile, the futures market has priced in an 0.25 per cent reduction in the cash rate by October, after the Reserve Bank left official interest rates unchanged at one per cent at its monthly board meeting.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, QIC LIMITED, ARDEA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, EXANTE DATA

US Fed rate cut gives Reserve Bank cover

Original article by Vesna Poljak, Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 31 : 2-Aug-19

Andrew Canobi of Franklin Templeton says the US Federal Reserve is still widely tipped to announce two further interest rate cuts over the next year. However, he says the central bank is likely to pursue less aggressive monetary policy easing than had been recently forecast, after chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the rate cut on 1 August will not be the start of "a long series of rate cuts". The more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as it should reduce any upward pressure on the Australian dollar.

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UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA