QE coming next year: JPMorgan

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 12-Nov-19

JPMorgan Australia’s chief economist Sally Auld expects the Reserve Bank to implement unconventional monetary policy measures in the December 2020 quarter. Auld still anticipates another official interest rate cut in February, but warns that this will be insufficient to stimulate the economy, prompting the central bank to reduce the cash rate to 0.25 per cent and commence a quantitative easing program in late 2020. However, Auld says quantitative easing is unlikely to be necessary if the federal government’s May 2020 Budget includes ‘meaningful’ fiscal stimulus.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Optimistic Reserve Bank holds rates steady for now

Original article by David Rogers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 6-Nov-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that the cash rate is likely to remain low for some time, after it was left unchanged at 0.75 per cent on 5 November. However, he also stressed that the central bank is open to further rate cuts if necessary to achieve its inflation and full employment targets. Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets now expects another rate cut in February, rather than December. Bill Evans of Westpac also expects a rate cut in February, which he says will be the last one in the current easing cycle.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Recovery in doubt as Aussie dollar surges

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 1-Nov-19

The Australian dollar reached a three-month high of $US0.693 in local trading on 31 October, in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s third interest rate cut in 2019. Financial markets have in turn downgraded the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia reducing the cash rate again before the end of the year. The Australian dollar gained 3.3 per cent in October, including a gain of 1.6 per cent in the last five trading sessions. RBA board member Ian Harper argues that a strong currency is not desirable at present, given weak economic growth and less than full employment.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

CPI cools further rate cut chances

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 31-Oct-19

Official data shows that the consumer price index rose 0.5 per cent during the September quarter and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. Trimmed mean inflation was 0.4 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent for the year to September. With the inflation rate remaining below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for a 15th consecutive quarter, the cash rate now seems likely to stay unchanged at 0.75 per cent for the rest of the year. Craig James of CommSec says the three interest rate cuts in 2019 have spooked consumers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

RBA urges boards: cut hurdle rates

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Oct-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has used a speech in Canberra to argue that businesses should reduce their return hurdle rates on new investments in response to historically low interest rates. He contends that many business investments that did not make sense commercially when interest rates were much higher should now proceed. Lowe also emphasised that negative interest rates are unlikely in Australia.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

No option for savers as deposits slashed

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 29-Oct-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s term deposit interest rates are now well below the official inflation rate. The banking major has cut its term deposit rates by a much higher margin than the 75-basis point reduction in the cash rate so far in 2019. InfoChoice CEO Vadim Taube says savers need to look beyond the four major banks for term deposits that offer above-inflation interest rates. Meanwhile, Liberal MP Tim Wilson says the Reserve Bank should be wary of further easing monetary policy until the impact of the recent series of official interest cuts can be determined.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, INFOCHOICE LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

QE tipped as rate cuts lose impact

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 22-Oct-19

A number of economists now say the Reserve Bank of Australia could implement unconventional monetary policy measures in 2020. They include Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans, who warns that quantitative easing may be necessary if the cash rate fall below 0.5 per cent. Michael Knox of Morgans Financial, Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets and Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics have also flagged the prospect of quantitative easing. Financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut to 0.5 per cent by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Cup day rate cut less likely on minutes

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Oct-19

Financial markets have priced in a 36 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in November, following the release of the minutes from the central bank’s October board meeting. Amongst other things, board members expressed concern about the impact of historically low interest rates on savers and the housing market. The general consensus of economists is that the cash rate will remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Evans warns of negative impact of rate cuts

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Oct-19

Financial markets expect the cash rate to fall to 0.5 per cent by February, and market pricing suggests that there is more than a 50 per cent chance of further rate cuts by mid-2020. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says the Reserve Bank should take note of declining consumer confidence when considering further rate cuts, and the "possible unintended consequences" of any move toward negative interest rates. The general consensus of economists is that fiscal policy would be more effective than unconventional monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

QE would kill finance and capitalism, McKibbin warns

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 9-Oct-19

Former Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin has cautioned against any move to reduce implement quantitative easing in Australia. He argues that unconventional monetary policy in Europe is merely propping up financially unsustainable businesses while restricting access to capital for new businesses. He adds that reducing interest rates below a certain level merely distorts capital without providing any economic stimulus. Some economists expect the cash rate to fall to 0.5 per cent in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY