BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan forecasts Australian Retail Sales to hit $40 billion a month for the first time in August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Aug-26

New forecasts from Roy Morgan shows that monthly Australian Retail Sales are set to reach $40 billion in August, up 6% on a year ago. The three categories driving growth are Household Goods (forecast to grow 8.8% to almost $6.7 billion), Hospitality (set to grow 6.2% to over $5.9 billion) and Other Retailing (projected to grow 7.5% to over $7 billion). The Clothing category is forecast to grow 5.7% to over $3 billion, while the slowest growth is predicted for Department Stores, up 2.3% to $1.66 billion. The largest category is Food with expected sales of over $15.6 billion in August, up 4.6% on a year ago and representing 39% of all forecast retail sales in August. The fastest retail sales growth by State is set to be in Western Australia with an increase of 7.2% on a year ago to total retail sales of over $4.8 billion in August, just ahead of South Australia, up 6.4% to over $2.6 billion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Half of all new cars on Australian roads to be Chinese by 2035 as cost outweighs climate

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Original article by Joseph Carbone
The Australian – Page: 15 : 29-Jul-26

The Centre for International Economics has forecast has that Chinese brands will account for 43 per cent of new car sales in Australia by 2035. The Australian Automotive Dealer Association has in turn forecast that Chinese brands’ share of the new car market will rise to about 58 per cent by 2035. The AADA’s CEO James Voortman notes that Chinese vehicles have gone from being a novelty to being mainstream in Australia over the last five years. However, he says there are issues such as whether buyers of Chinese vehicles will continue to receive support if these brands withdraw from the Australian market. Voortman adds that design standards should be reviewed to ensure that the software in Chinese vehicles are not a threat to national security.

CORPORATES
CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIAN AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION PTY LTD

Wary shoppers dent Myer outlook

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz, Sam Irvine
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 28-Jul-26

Department store chain Myer announced on Monday that it expects sales for the last financial year to come in flat at around $4 billion, due to reducing spending on beauty products and its clothing brands. Myer executive chairwoman Olivia Wirth said its trade had been volatile over the past few months, with sales jumping in May but slumping in June and July six months, while she expects retailers to start their Christmas promotions and Black Friday sales earlier this year; Myer is due to hand down its full-year results in September

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR

MinRes braces for diesel price pain

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 17 : 1-May-26

Mineral Resources has upgraded its full-year production guidance for its mining services, iron ore and lithium divsions, including its Onslow Iron, Wodgina and Mount Marion projects. The company has also maintained full-year cost guidance across its divisions, although it noted that the rising cost of diesel fuel due to the Iran war began to have an impact on its operations. It is estimated that Mineral Resources uses about 12,000 litres of diesel fuel each day, while it also requires aviation fuel for its fleet of airplanes for its ‘fly-in, fly-out’ workforce.

CORPORATES
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN

Bankers hoping busy year will see M&A cash roll in

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 7-Jan-26

Data from Dealogic shows that $US92.8bn worth of mergers and acquisitions targeting Australian companies were announced during 2025; this eight per cent higher than in 2024, and the highest level of activity since calendar 2021. Australia-based companies in turn pursued $US11.82bn worth of deals offshore. Marissa Freund from Goldman Sachs and Tim Joyce from Macquarie Capital are amongst those who expect M&A activity to remain strong in 2026. Meanwhile, global M&A activity totalled $US5.1trn in 2025, which is 42 per cent higher year-on-year.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD

Lynas stranded by energy mess

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 26-Nov-25

Lynas Rare Earths has advised that its production will be about one-third lower in the December quarter due to electricity supply problems at its cracking and leaching plant in Western Australia. The $800m plant is located in Kalgoorlie, which has been affected by intermittent power outages for some time, and Lynas says the outages have become more frequent and longer during November. Lynas is now considering off-grid options for the plant, such as diesel fuel and gas; it is also building a 46-megawatt hybrid power station at its Mount Weld rare earths mine.

CORPORATES
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED – ASX LYC

Insatiable US demand to buoy Australian beef

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 19-Nov-25

Australia exported a record $1.6bn worth of beef to the US in the September quarter. Analysts expect US demand for Australian beef to remain strong, despite the Trump administration’s move to reduce the tariff on beef from rival exporters such as Brazil. Angus Gidley-Baird from Rabobank says this will reduce Australia’s competitive advantage, given that the nation was already subject to a lower tariff on beef exports; however, he notes that the tariff on Brazilian beef will still be higher.

CORPORATES
RABOBANK AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Forrest-backed Greatland loses $1b on guidance

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Original article by Mark Wembridge
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 30-Jul-25

Greatland Resources has downgraded its 2025-26 production forecast just one month after listing on the Australian sharemarket. The gold miner had previously expected to produce up to 340,000 ounces of gold in the current financial year, but this will now be within the range of 260,000 to 310,000 ounces. MD Shaun Day has attributed the downgrade to Greatland’s "conservative approach" to guidance. The company’s shares fell 22 per cent to $5.36 on Tuesday, compared with an issue price of $6.60 in the recent IPO. Greatland’s investors include Wyloo, the private company of Andrew and Nicola Forrest.

CORPORATES
GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GGP, WYLOO METALS PTY LTD

MinRes slices into iron ore guidance

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 14 : 28-May-25

Mineral Resources has advised that its Onslow Iron project has shipped 1.7 million tonnes of iron ore so far in May, and shipments for the full month are expected to total 1.9 million tonnes. This compares with 1.3 million tonnes in April, while the company expects shipments for June to be within the range of 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes. However, Mineral Resources has indicated that the Onslow Iron project’s full-year output for 2024-25 is now expected to be within the range of 7.8 to 8 million tonnes, compared with previous guidance of 8.5 million to 8.7 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN

ASX faces dividend horror story as companies slash payouts

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Mar-25

The combined dividend payout for companies in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index was just $31.2bn in the February reporting season. Bell Potter strategist Richard Coppleson notes that it is the lowest payout for this period since 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The three major listed iron ore miners reduced their dividends in response to a sharp fall in the price of the steel input during 2024. Citigroup expects further decline in the mining sector’s dividends, amid expectations that the iron ore price will also fall as new supply enters the market later in 2025. The firm also anticipates lower dividends from bank stocks, which dominate the ASX along with resources stocks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD