BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Nine shoots higher as investors talk break-up

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Original article by Valerina Changarathil
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Jan-25

Nine Entertainment Company’s shares fell by 39 per cent in calendar 2024; however, the stock rose 5.6 per cent t to $1.32 on Tuesday, amid speculation that the diversified media group could be broken up. The recent emergence of Tanarra Capital on Nine’s share register has boosted such speculation; Tanarra is headed by John Wylie, who has successfully advocated for changes at companies such as Lendlease.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, TANARRA CAPITAL PTY LTD

Action-packed year tipped for lithium deals

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 17-Dec-24

Mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia’s critical minerals sector has been subdued in 2024; there have been just 25 such deals, compared with 49 in the previous calendar year. However, the total value of deals in the sector has risen from $5.3bn in 2023 to $14.8bn in the year to date. Law firm Allens is upbeat about the outlook for the critical minerals sector in 2025, forecasting an upturn in M&A activity that will flow through to other resources commodities.

CORPORATES
ALLENS

Action-packed year tipped for lithium deals

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 17-Dec-24

Mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia’s critical minerals sector has been subdued in 2024; there have been just 25 such deals, compared with 49 in the previous calendar year. However, the total value of deals in the sector has risen from $5.3bn in 2023 to $14.8bn in the year to date. Law firm Allens is upbeat about the outlook for the critical minerals sector in 2025, forecasting an upturn in M&A activity that will flow through to other resources commodities.

CORPORATES
ALLENS

Aussie to drop materially in 2025, CBA warns

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Dec-24

The Commonwealth Bank is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar in 2025, amid fears of a trade war when US president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. The currency has fallen by 7.3 per cent since its most recent peak in September; it was fetching $US0.6470 on Tuesday, having reached a low of $US0.6432 last week. The Commonwealth Bank now expects the currency to fall to $US0.61 by September, but head of international equities Joseph Capurso says it could fall much further and faster if the trade war is more disruptive than anticipated.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

US election may hurt dealmakers

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 15 : 6-Nov-24

Mergers and acquisitions lawyer Sandy Mak from Corrs Chambers Westgarth says it is "hard to predict" just how the outcome of the presidential election will affect US investment in Australia and other countries. US companies are one of the largest foreign investors in Australia, and Mak says they could put plans to invest in Australia on hold if the election results in geopolitical uncertainty; she notes that corporate America has historically been wary of investing offshore in times of volatility and uncertainty.

CORPORATES
CORRS CHAMBERS WESTGARTH

Weak conditions to put a dampener on dividends

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 11-Sep-24

Australian-listed companies paid out more than $80bn worth of dividends in 2023-24, which is five per cent higher than the previous financial year. However, Ryan Felsman from CommSec warns that shareholders should expect lower dividend payouts in 2023-24. He says that energy, consumer discretionary and real estate stocks in particular are likely to deliver lower dividends in the current fiscal year. A report from CommSec has concluded that despite some headwinds, returns on Australian shares are still attractive compared with alternatives such as bank deposits, bonds and international equities.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Streaming ad revenue set to eclipse TV

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Original article by Kylar Loussikian
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 30-Jul-24

A report from PwC notes that revenue across Australia’s media industry has risen to $62.3bn in the last year, although growth in revenue slowed from 6.6 per cent to just 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, PwC estimates that digital revenue now accounts for 70 per cent of advertising spending in the media sector, compared with 54 per cent in 2019; the firm has also forecast that this will increase to 79 per cent by 2028. PwC in turn expects advertising revenues from traditional TV broadcasts to fall to around $3.5bn by 2028, while revenue from subscription and ‘catch-up’ services is forecast to rise to a similar level within four years.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD

Investors brace for bruising earnings season

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Original article by Sarah Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 30-Jul-24

Factors such as the cost-of-living crisis and high interest rates are expected to weigh on the August corporate reporting season. Macquarie has forecast a six per cent decline in earnings across the market for 2023-24, although the broker anticipates earnings growth of 10 per cent in 2024-25. Jun Bei Liu from Tribeca Investment Partners in turn expects the earnings season to be one of the softest in recent times, stating that revenue and margins are likely to have remained under pressure due to factors such as high labour costs and slowing economic growth.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD

Aussie Broadband’s budget Buddy chases lost customers

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Original article by Jenny Wiggins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 19 : 16-Jul-24

Shares in Aussie Broadband fell by 14 per cent to trade at $3.06 on Monday after the telco announced that its 2024-25 financial year earnings would be between $125 million and $135 million, some $10 million less than its previous forecast. Aussie Broadband launched a new cheap internet brand called Buddy Telco on Monday, with group MD Phillip Britt hoping it will win back some of the customers it has lost to rival Superloop after Aussie Broadband lost a wholesale contract with Origin Energy to Superloop.

CORPORATES
AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED – ASX ABB, SUPERLOOP LIMITED – ASX SLC, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG

Analysts warn on bank growth

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 19 : 9-Jul-24

The share prices of Australia’s big four banks have risen strongly over the past 12 months, but Macquarie analysts have warned that the earnings outlook for the Commonwealth Bank, the ANZ, Westpac and the National Australia is weak. They note that the likelihood of there being a softer landing for the broader economy has diminished, and that extremely low impairment charges will hinder their earnings recovery in the medium term; Macquarie is underweight the banking sector over that period.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG