ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

June Real Unemployment in Australia up 1% to 11.7%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jul-26

In June 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment rose 156,000 to 1,860,000 (11.7% of the workforce, up 1%), while under-employment fell 15,000 to 1,488,000 (down 0.1% to 9.4%). In total, 3.35 million Australians (21.1% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,888,000 in June, up 28,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.7% of Australians aged 14+. Overall employment was down 128,000 to 14,028,000. The decline was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 279,000 to 4,956,000, and equivalent to 35.3% of employed Australians). In contrast, full-time employment was up 151,000 to 9,072,000 (equivalent to 64.7% of employed Australians). The June Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Biggest house price fallers since the budget

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 & 26 : 15-Jul-26

Analysis by data provider Cotality shows that house prices in some of the most premium suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne have recorded the biggest falls since the federal government’s budget in May. House prices in Bellevue, which is Sydney’s most expensive suburb, fell by two per cent during May and June; other prestigious suburbs that have record sharp falls in home values include Balmain East, Double Bay and North Bondi. House prices in affluent inner-city and bayside suburbs of Melbourne have also fallen; they include Albert Park, Collingwood, Elwood and Port Melbourne.

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COTALITY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.2pts to 74.7 driven by more people concerned about the economy over the next year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jul-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.2pts to 74.7 in the first week of July; Consumer Confidence is now 13.9pts lower than a year ago (88.6), but 3.2pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.5. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased marginally in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but fell in New South Wales and Western Australia. Now 15% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (up 1 ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 19% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In June Roy Morgan Business Confidence up slightly by 1.4 points to 77.5 – but still fourth lowest of all time

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jul-26

In June 2026 Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 1.4 points to 77.5, a slight recovery from the all-time record low in May of 76.1. However, Business Confidence during the June 2026 quarter was at a record low quarterly rating of only 76.7; this is 7.6 points below the previous quarterly low from the September 2020 quarter of 84.3. Business Confidence is also down 24.9 points from a year ago. Now 25.2% (up 1.2ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 44.9% (up 0.9ppts), say the business is ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since December 2023). Just 26.1% of respondents (up 0.9ppts), said their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 51.4% (up 6.5ppts), said the business is ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since October 2020). Meanwhile, 33.4% (up 4.4ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31.5% (down 2.6ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.1pts to 75.9 driven by more people expecting their finances to be better off next year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Jul-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.1pts to 72.8 in in the week to 28 June, its highest rating since early March. Consumer Confidence is still 10.5pts lower than a year ago (87.2), but 4.5pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but was down slightly in South Australia. Now 17% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 24% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39% (down 4 ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (down 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.8% in late June – down 0.5% points from the month of May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined sharply in the month of May 2026, and have continued this downward trend so far during June; Inflation Expectations are at 5.8% for the week of 15-21 June, down 0.5% points from the month of May. The latest weekly reading is now below the average for Inflation Expectations over the first 24 weeks of 2026 of 6.1%. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May shows the measure at 6.3% for the month – down 0.7% points from the prior month of April, returning to its level in March (also 6.3%). Inflation Expectations spiked to a record weekly high of 7.3% (23-29 March) and record monthly high of 7% for April, following the US and Israel attack on Iran, but have dropped significantly over the last two months as a ceasefire was called. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,104 Australians aged 14+ in May 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.1pts to 72.8 driven by more people saying good time to buy major household items

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.1pts to 72.8 in in the week to 21 June, its highest rating since early March. Consumer Confidence is still 13.9pts lower than a year ago (86.7), but 1.6pts above the 2026 weekly average of 71.2. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, was unchanged in South Australia, and down in Victoria. Now just 16% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Risk of mortgage stress up 0.8% points in May after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates in early May to 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 29% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to May 2026, up 0.8% points from April. This is equivalent to 1,538,000 people (up 65,000 on a month earlier). The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up by 100,000 on a year ago, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in May and August 2025, and then raised them in February, March and May 2026. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,084,000 (20.4% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 70.7 in mid-June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 70.7 in mid-June, down 0.1pts from a week ago. However, Consumer Confidence is 14.7pts lower than a year ago (85.4), and just 0.4pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.1. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, but was down in Queensland and Western Australia. Now just 17% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 46% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at over 3.2 million in May; Real Unemployment at 1.7 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-26

In May 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment rose 69,000 to 1,704,000 (10.7% of the workforce, up 0.6%), but under-employment dropped 136,000 to 1,503,000 (down 0.7% to 9.5%). In total, 3.21 million Australians (20.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just under 15.9 million in May (15,860,000 to be exact, down 231,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.7% of Australians aged 14+). Employment was down 300,000 to 14,156,000 in May; this was driven by falls in both full-time employment (down 224,000 to 8,921,000) and part-time employment (down 76,000 to 5,235,000. Overall employment represents 60.4% of Australians aged 14+. The May Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED