ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

In August 2026 risk of mortgage stress virtually unchanged at 32.3%, but up a large 8.4% points since January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Sep-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 32.3% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to August 2026. This is equivalent to 1,718,000 people (down 68,000 on a month earlier, but up 534,000 so far this year). The proportion of people at risk of mortgage stress is down 0.2% points from July, although it is up 8.4% points since January after three interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank early this year. Yesterday’s interest rate increase of 25 basis points to a 15-year high of 4.6% will impact future mortgage stress. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress, is now numbered at 1,207,000 (22.7% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.5pts to 70.5 as confidence about personal finances declines

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.5pts to 70.5 in the week to 27 September, which is its lowest rating since late May. Consumer Confidence is now 15.8pts lower than a year ago (85.3), and 1.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.3. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has decreased in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, but there have been small increases in both Victoria and Queensland. Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 4ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 44% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 16% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.9pts to 72 as confidence about the Australian economy’s performance declines

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.9pts to 72 in the week to 20 September; Consumer Confidence is now 12.6pts lower than a year ago (84.6), but just 0.4pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has fallen in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, while there have been small increases in both Western Australia and South Australia. Now 19% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 24% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 41% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 44% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

New-home sales national freefall

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 16-Sep-26

Data from the Housing Industry Association shows that sales of new home in Australia fell by 10 per cent month-on-month in August, and by 19.3 per cent in the last three months. The data is based on the HIA’s survey of major home builders across the nation’s five largest capital cities. The HIA’s chief economist Tim Reardon says the federal government’s budget changes tax have weakened market confidence at the same time that three interest rate increases have reduced household borrowing capacity and increased mortgage repayments. The HIA data also shows that sales of new homes have fallen by 7.7 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2pts to 73.9 as confidence about personal finances increases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2pts to 73.9 in the week to 13 September; Consumer Confidence is still 12pts lower than a year ago (85.3), but 1.5pts above the 2026 weekly average of 72.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has increased in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while it is down in Queensland for a second straight week and unchanged in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 23% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian real unemployment up 0.1% to 11.7%, with workforce and employment both marginally contracting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

In August 2026, Australian ‘real unemployment’ rose by 15,000 to 1,848,000 (11.7% of the workforce, up 0.1%), and under-employment increased by 50,000 to 1,445,000 (up 0.3% to 9.1%). In total, 3.29 million Australians (20.8% of the workforce, up 0.4%) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,804,000 in August, down 9,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.3% (down 0.1%) of Australians aged 14+. Overall employment was down 24,000 to 13,956,000 in August. The decrease was driven by a fall in full-time employment (down 81,000 to 9,012,000), and equivalent to 64.6% of employed Australians. In contrast, part-time employment was up 57,000 to 4,944,000 (equivalent to 35.4% of employed Australians). The August Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

National tax grab up 60pc since Covid

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, David Tanner
The Australian – Page: 4 : 9-Sep-26

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the combined tax revenue of the nation’s federal, state and local governments has risen to $893bn a year. This is 61 per cent higher than at the onset of the pandemic, including growth of seven per cent in 2025-26. Stamp duty revenue has increased by 112 per cent over the last six years, while personal income tax revenue is up 63.8 per cent and the corporate tax take has risen by 70 per cent. Corinna Economic Advisory economist Saul Eslake notes that Australia has recorded GDP growth just 47 per cent over the same period.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CORINNA ECONOMIC ADVISORY PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3pts to 71.9 in early September, lowest rating since late July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3pts to 71.9 in the week to 6 September; it was the second straight weekly fall after the ABS announced higher-than-expected official inflation for July. Consumer Confidence is now 17.4pts lower than a year ago (89.3), and 0.5pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has decreased in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia for a second straight week, while it is down in Queensland but up slightly in South Australia. Now just 14% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 41% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, only 16% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 41% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 3.1pts to 79.1; driven by a jump of 16.7pts in Victoria after Premier Allan resigns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Sep-26

In August 2026, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 3.1 points to 79.1; it was a record fifth straight month below the mark of 80, and just above the all-time record low reached in July. Business Confidence is down 19.5 points from a year ago; it fell in five out of the six States, and was below 80 in four States. The surprising exception was Victoria, with Business Confidence of 92.4pts in August – just three months before the State Election, and virtually unchanged on a year ago (up 0.2pts). Meanwhile, 27.2% (up 8.5ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 45.3% (down 3ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Only 33.2% (up 4.1ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31.8% (down 1ppt) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Some 31.8% (up 6.3ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 48.2% (up 0.2ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

July 2026 mortgage stress up 2.2% points to 18-year high of 32.5%; after three RBA interest rate increases in 2026

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Sep-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 32.5% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to July 2026, up 2.2% points from May. This is equivalent to 1,786,000 people (up 180,000 on a month earlier), and the highest level of mortgage stress for 18 years. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up 341,000 on a year ago, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates to 3.85% in 2025) before raising them to 4.35% so far in 2026. The rising level of mortgage stress is due to a combination of the RBA’s interest rate increases in 2026 and pressure on the labour market; Roy Morgan’s July labour market report shows overall employment – and importantly full-time employment – are both down on highs reached earlier in the year, and the negative impacts on household incomes which have softened since earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,210,000 (22% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA