Author: roymorgansocial

Banks a mixed bag for investors

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 15 : 9-Jan-17

Morgan Stanley estimates that the ANZ Bank achieved a total shareholder return of 15.7 per cent in calendar 2016, ahead of National Australia Bank with 12.9 per cent. Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank boasted total shareholder returns of 3.2 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively. The Commonwealth Bank was the top performer over a three-year period, with a TSR of 24.6 per cent. Meanwhile, Macquarie Group forecasts that National Australia Bank will perform best in 2017, with a TSR of 12.8 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 ACCUMULATION INDEX, REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS. BASEL COMMITTEE ON BANKING SUPERVISION, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Sims slams easy route to growth

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 9-Jan-17

Australian Competition & Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims argues that more local companies should be pursuing international growth rather than merely acquiring their domestic rivals. He adds that while many companies support the idea of becoming a "national champion", this has resulted in some companies dominating the domestic market rather than expanding globally. Sims has also raised the possibility of changing the criteria for approving mergers by requiring a company to prove why the deal should be allowed to proceed.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, BP AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED – ASX VOC

Paladin’s survival countdown

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 9-Jan-17

Australian-listed uranium producer Paladin Energy must repay some $US212m ($A289m) worth of debt by the end of April 2017. The future of Paladin has been under scrutiny since the group advised in early December 2016 that the sale of a 24 per cent stake in its Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia is unlikely to proceed. A debt-for-equity swap is seen by many as the most likely option for Paladin to ensure its survival. The group’s shares are trading at around $A0.10.

CORPORATES
PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX PDN, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, CHINA NATIONAL NUCLEAR CORPORATION, UBS AG, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, SOUTH GOBI RESOURCES, ALUMINIUM CORPORATION OF CHINA LIMITED, ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE

Jet-setting Ley fights to keep career flying

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 9-Jan-17

The future of federal Health Minister Sussan Ley remains under scrutiny amid new revelations about her reimbursement for travel expenses. It has been disclosed that Ley submitted claims for the cost of travelling to the Gold Coast on New Year’s Eve in both 2013 and 2014. Ley has agreed to repay the expenses she incurred in May 2015 for travelling from Brisbane to the Gold Coast, where she bought an apartment. She had been in Brisbane on official ministerial business at the time. The Opposition has argued that she should be sacked.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, THE PHARMACY GUILD OF AUSTRALIA

One listing definitely not in White’s plans

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 15 : 9-Jan-17

Ray White Real Estate chairman Brian White has ruled out an IPO. CFO Andrew Jamson says White hopes Australia’s largest real estate firm will remain a family-owned company into the fifth generation. Meanwhile, McGrath Limited’s shares are trading at around $A0.90, compared with an issue price of $A2.10 in late 2015, while founder John McGrath resigned as CEO in August 2016. Another family-owned real estate firm, LJ Hooker, dropped plans for an IPO in 2016.

CORPORATES
RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, LJ HOOKER (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED, RAMS HOME LOANS PTY LTD

Business Confidence down in December to 114.1 (down 2.2%) after negative Australian GDP figures released

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.2% to 114.1 in December 2016. The fall in Business Confidence occurred even as the Australian All Ordinaries rose during December – mirroring strong rises in US indices following the victory of Donald Trump in the Presidential Election. The All Ordinaries ended 2016 at 5,719.1 (up 216.7pts (+3.9%) from November 30). This month’s fall in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now below the 6-year average (116.6) but still above the final ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for 2016 of 113.4. Businesses are less confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months down 3.3ppts to 27pts in December, and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 18.2pts (down 2.3ppts).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Growth-sapping GST must face overhaul: miners

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Original article by Sid Maher
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 9-Jan-17

The Minerals Council of Australia has used its submission to the Productivity Commission’s five-year productivity review to urge changes to the system for distributing goods and services tax revenue. The MCA argues that the current system redirects GST revenue from states that have encouraged the development of natural resources to states that place strictures on mining and energy projects. The MCA has also called for a reduction in the corporate tax rate and action to address the power of unions under the Fair Work Act.

CORPORATES
MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. COMMONWEALTH GRANTS COMMISSION, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Mining, energy exports tipped to top $200b

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 9-Jan-17

The office of the chief economist, Mark Cully, has released a report which forecasts that Australia’s mining and energy exports will reach a record $A203.9bn in 2016-17. This compares with just $A157.1bn in the previous financial year. The prices of key commodities such as iron ore and coal have rallied since a previous report had forecast that the value of mining and energy exports would total $A163.4bn in 2016-17. However, Cully expects the average price of both commodities to fall in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research comments on the fall in Business Confidence in December

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Business Confidence fell slightly in December after three straight months of increases – down 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.1. The fall in Business Confidence came after Donald Trump secured an unexpected victory in the US Presidential Election in November while in early December the ABS announced Australia’s GDP had decreased 0.5% in the September quarter – the first contraction in Australian GDP for over five years. Both Australia and the US face a continuing problem of high real unemployment and under-employment: In the US (over 20% according to President-elect Trump); and in Australia the latest Roy Morgan November employment estimates show Australian real unemployment of 1.199 million (9.2%) and under-employment of 1.1 million (8.4%). These figures show that the Reserve Bank of Australia should still be cutting Australian interest rates in 2017 (now at 1.50%) rather than thinking about raising them.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

$A one tweet away from a tumble, says Westpac

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 9-Jan-17

Modelling by Westpac suggests that the Australian dollar is about eight per cent below "fair value" at present. Westpac’s Robert Rennie warns that the dollar is vulnerable to another sell-off if US president-elect Donald Trump prompts a trade war with China. Meanwhile, Westpac expects commodity prices to fall in 2017. The bank also anticipates that Australia’s cash rate will remain unchanged while there will be two rate rises in the US.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD