Author: roymorgansocial

Rates pressure, costs keep lid on retail sales

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 29-May-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales rose by just 0.1 per cent in April, after falling by 0.4 per cent in March. The seasonally adjusted data also shows that retail sales increased by 1.3 per cent year-on-year in April. UBS chief economist George Tharenou say younger Australians and people with mortgages are primarily reducing their spending, while this is being offset by increased expenditure by older people and households that have no debt. Tharenou adds that the ongoing weakness in retail sales will make it less urgent for the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate; he still expects an interest rate cut in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Prime Minister Luxon’s honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2024 shows that support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has fallen by 4.5% points to 48.5%; it now has a narrow lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition (up 4% points to 47%. support for National was down 3% points to 33.5% – the lowest support for National since last year’s election; support for ACT decreased 1.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was unchanged at 5.5%. Support for Labour jumped 5.5% points to 30%, to its highest level since June 2023; support for the Greens was up 1% point to 14% and support for the Maori Party was down 2.5% points to 3%. A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for May would lead to 61 seats (down seven seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 59 seats (up four seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 925 electors from April 22 to May 19. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 10.5pts to 96 in May.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased 1.8pts to 80.2 as views about the next year deteriorate

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 80.2 in the week to 26 May; it has now spent a record 69 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4 points above the same week a year ago (76.2), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA but up slightly in Victoria – reversing the trends of a week ago. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 8% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in late May have dropped to 4.9% after spiking in April as petrol prices increased

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.9% for the week of May 20-26. This represents a slight decline from the average so far this year of 5.0%, and a pullback from the month of April (5.2%). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for April 2024 shows the measure at 5.2% for the month – the highest monthly figure so far this year and up 0.3% points from March 2024 (4.9%). This is the largest monthly increase in Inflation Expectations since June 2023, when the measure increased 0.4% points to 5.6%. Looking back over the last few months, since the start of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% – 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 7,593 Australians aged 14+ in April 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

NSW top state for business failures

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 29-May-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that 8,742 businesses nationwide were declared insolvent in the first 10 months of 2023-24. This compares with just 6,200 insolvencies during the same period in the previous financial year. NSW has recorded the biggest growth in insolvencies, with 3,695 businesses collapsing in the 10 months to 30 April; there have been 2,247 insolvencies in Victoria and 1,608 in Queensland. Sectors such as construction, accommodation, retail and food services have recorded the biggest growth in insolvencies.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Rapist attacks 25 women, teen – and keeps his visa

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Original article by Paul Garvey, Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 29-May-24

The federal government is continuing to attract scrutiny over Direction 99, which requires the Administrative ­Appeals Tribunal to take into account a foreign-born offender’s ties to Australia in assessing an appeal against the cancellation of their visa. It has been revealed that a serial rapist, a child sex offender and a Chinese national who was in possession of a huge quantity of child pornography are amongst those who have had their visas reinstated due to Direction 99. It has also been disclosed that Immigration Minister Andrew Giles’ own department had warned that about 25 per cent of foreign-born criminals could have the cancellation of their visa overturned via Direction 99.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH AND AGED CARE, AUSTRALIA. ADMINISTRATIVE APPEALS TRIBUNAL

1200 Chinese spies on Aussie turf, former spook reveals

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Original article by Kathryn Bermingham
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 29-May-24

A former Chinese spy has told the Defending Australia summit that the nation has been infiltrated by many operatives from his homeland. ‘Eric’ warned that at least 1,200 Chinese spies are currently active in Australia; this includes about 1,000 "low-level" operatives and an additional 200 "professional" operatives. Eric said that most of the spies are being directed by China’s Ministry of State Security, the Public Security Bureau or a consulate, and that they are collecting information, undertaking surveillance and harassing targets on behalf of the Communist regime.

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Shareholders approve fire sale of Russian mines to tycoon with former links to sanctioned oligarchs

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Original article by Sumeyya Ilanbey
The Age – Page: Online : 29-May-24

Some 99 per cent of Tigers Realm Coal’s shareholders have voted in favour of a deal to sell all of its assets to APM Invest, which is owned by Russian businessman Mark Buzuk. The $US49m ($74m) deal to sell two coking coal mines and an export terminal in Russia follows a court ruling in April that the company was in breach of trade sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine. Tigers Realm chairman Craig Wiggill says Buzuk was carefully screened and was found to have no current links to the Russian state or any entities that are subject to the trade sanctions. However, he is a former business associate of two Russian oligarchs who have been sanctioned.

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TIGERS REALM COAL LIMITED – ASX TIG, APM INVEST

Approved housing for 100,000 stalls on rising costs

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 & 28 : 29-May-24

KPMG’s analysis of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that at the end of 2023, construction had yet to begin on more than 37,000 dwelling had been approved. This represents a nine per cent increase on the five-year average. These dwellings would provide housing for nearly 100,000 people, based on the nation’s average household size of 2.5 people. Townhouses and apartments comprise nearly two-thirds of dwellings that are awaiting construction. KPMG’s urban economist Terry Rawnsley says factors such as rising construction costs and labour shortages have contributed to the stalled housing commencements.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

We can’t mount solo defence against invasion any more: Beazley

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Original article by Ben Packham, Sarah Ison, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-May-24

Defence Minister Richard Marles delivered a keynote speech at the Defending Australia summit in Canberra on Tuesday night. He said the world is currently facing the most threatening strategic circumstance since the end of World War II, and emphasised the importance of the AUKUS alliance to Australia’s defence strategy. However, former Labor leader Kim Beazley told the summit that Australia’s military can longer defend the nation from invasion without support from the US; he argued that the nation was ”absolutely" able to defend itself when he was defence minister in the 1980s.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE