Author: roymorgansocial

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explains the changes that are transforming the Australian labour force as part-time work surges and drives a sustained increase in under-employment

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

Although total Australian unemployment or under-employment was virtually unchanged in March, the combined figure has averaged over 3 million (19.3% of the workforce) for the last six months, up from 2.86 million (18.8%) for the previous six months. Importantly, there has been a re-alignment in the employment markets in recent months with the increase in overall labour under-utilisation driven by a sustained rise in under-employment which is directly correlated to surging part-time employment. In March, part-time employment increased by 295,000 (up 6.1% on a month ago) to a new record high of 5,164,000. In contrast, full-time employment decreased by 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000. This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year) while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created). As part-time employment increases it makes sense we see a sustained rise in under-employment – people who are working part-time but would like to work more hours or work full-time. These results indicate the underlying weakness in the economy with under-employment now over 1.5 million for six months in a row – this has never happened before, even during the recent pandemic – "another reason" why the Reserve Bank should consider reducing interest rates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian elite seek to divert Russia’s $9b dirty money to Ukraine

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Original article by Rob Harris
The Age – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

The Supporters of Ukraine Network has asked the federal government to confiscate billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets and use the money to support Ukraine. The Supporters of Ukraine Network, which includes health industry leader Dr Tanya Dus and former prime minister John Howard, says the $9 billion in Russian assets that is currently held in Australia would make a enormous difference in terms of Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction, with the group claiming it would "effectively fund the reconstruction of half of Ukraine’s educational infrastructure".

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Not the retiring type: Australians are working well into their 60s

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

Analysis undertaken by KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley reveals men are not expecting to retire until they reach 10 weeks beyond their 66th birthday, which is the highest retirement age since 1972. In the case of women, they are not expecting to retire until 64.8 years, the the highest since 1971. Rawnsley says the working from home trend that emerged during the pandemic has led many Australians in professional jobs to realise that they can ‘semi-retire’ and still "dabble in the workforce" from home or even a coastal location. Rawnsley’s research shows expected retirement ages have risen since 2003, due in part to changes in access to the age pension.

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KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Federal voting intention: Coalition takes two-party preferred lead over ALP after support for One Nation surges: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

Support for the Coalition increased 1.5% to 50.5% to edge narrowly ahead of the ALP on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis as Australians began to return from Easter holidays. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Several issues hurt the Albanese Government’s support last week, in particular the surge in crime in Alice Springs which forced the imposition of a youth curfew in the outback town. There was also the arrival of a new asylum seeker boat in Western Australia and the death of an Australian aid worker in Gaza. Primary support for the Coalition increased 0.5% to 38% ahead of the ALP on only 29.5%, down 0.5% from a week ago. In addition, hurting the ALP on a two-party preferred basis was the decrease in support for the Greens, down 2% to 13.5%. The biggest beneficiary of the decline in support for the ALP and Greens last week was One Nation, which surged 2.5% to 6% – the highest level of support for the party for six months since November 2023. The majority of One Nation preferences flow to the Coalition. Support for Independents was unchanged at 9% and support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 4%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,731 Australian electors from April 1-7, 2024. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Supermarket hit could rock us all

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Original article by Jess Malcolm, Geoff Chambers, Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 4 : 9-Apr-24

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry has expressed reservations about any push to make the food and grocery code of conduct mandatory rather than voluntary. ACCI CEO Andrew McKellar has responded to the release of Craig Emerson’s interim report on his review of the code of conduct by warning that excessive regulation could have "unintended consequences". Amongst other things, Emerson has recommended fining supermarkets up to 10 per cent of their turnover for breaches of the code. Meanwhile, Opposition leader Peter Dutton has described Emerson’s inquiry as a "Mickey Mouse review conducted by a Labor mate"; Emerson is a former federal Labor minister.

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AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Brokers go all in on Rio, tipping 20pc share price jump

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 9-Apr-24

The consensus of analysts is that Rio Tio’s shares will significantly outperform those of rival BHP over the next year. Rio Tinto’s stock is tipped to gain 20 per cent, compared with expectations of a six per cent rise in BHP’s share price. Analysts cite factors such as Rio Tinto’s rising copper production via the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, as well as its large aluminium business. Meanwhile, BHP is facing a massive lawsuit over the collapse of a tailings dam in Brazil.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

In March 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 78,000 to 1,358,000 (down 0.5% to 8.7% of the workforce) as employment reached an all-time high of over 14.2 million. However, the composition of the workforce changed – part-time employment surged 295,000 (up 6.1%) to 5,164,000 (a new record high). Unfortunately, there was a substantial decrease in full-time employment, down 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000 as the composition of the employment market changed significantly. The rise in part-time employment was correlated to the increase in under-employment, up 75,000 to 1,576,000 (10.1%, up 0.5%). In total a massive 2.93 million Australians (18.8%, unchanged) were unemployed or under-employed in March. This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year), while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Winx foal world’s priciest filly

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Original article by Zoe Samios
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Apr-24

Bidding for the first foal of champion racehorse Winx began at $2 million at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale on Monday, with the filly going on to fetch $10 million. It was the highest price paid ever for a filly anywhere in the world, as well as the most expensive yearling in the southern hemisphere. Sired by champion stallion Pierro, she was bought by Woppitt Bloodstock, the family racing business of Winx part-owner Debbie Kepitis. Kepitis said the filly, who has been nicknamed ‘Winny", would be prepared by Winx’s trainer Chris Waller if she raced.

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INGLIS (SALES) PTY LTD

ABC and triple j revive One Night Stand music festival

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Original article by Calum Jaspan
The Age – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

The ABC’s youth-focused radio station triple j will team up with Music Australia to relaunch the One Night Stand music festival. The event was held annually from 2004 to 2019, but it was put on hold in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Triple j will run a competition to decide which regional town will host the one-day festival in 2024. The decision to revive One Night Stand follows the cancellation of popular music festivals such as Splendour in the Grass, Groovin the Moo and the Falls Festival.

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AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION, TRIPLE J PTY LTD, MUSIC AUSTRALIA

Doubt builds RBA will cut rates in 2024

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 9-Apr-24

Financial markets are now pricing in two interest rate cuts in the US during 2024, while the Federal Reserve has previously flagged the likelihood of three rate cuts. The latest US non-farm payrolls data has strengthened the case for a rate cut to be delayed until later in the year, with the economy adding a higher-than-expected 303,000 jobs in March. There are heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will also delay the timing of its first rate rise, with growing speculation that the central bank will leave the cash rate on hold until 2025.

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UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA