Author: roymorgansocial

Don’t get your hopes up on rates cut: OECD

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Feb-24

The OECD has forecast that Australia’s inflation rate will fall to 3.5 per cent by mid-2024 and just 2.75 per cent by mid-2025. The Paris-based organisation is also upbeat about inflation globally, forecasting that inflation will be in line with central bank objectives in most Group of 20 countries by the end of 2025. However, the OECD has also cautioned central banks against easing monetary policy too quickly in response to the downturn in inflation. Meanwhile, Challenger Limited’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns has downplayed the prospects of multiple interest rate cuts in Australia during 2024; he says a single rate cut late in the year is most likely.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF

Insurance premiums rise faster than Australia’s inflation, spurred by frequent extreme weather

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Original article by Josh Nicholas, Jonathan Barrett
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 6-Feb-24

The latest inflation data shows that insurance premiums have risen by 16.2 per cent over the last year. In contrast, the annual inflation rate was just 4.1 per cent. An Insurance Council of Australia spokesperson says factors such as the rising cost of natural disasters are contributing to the spike in premiums. Reinsurers are also taking into account the impact of climate change when setting their prices, and any such increases are ultimately passed on insurance companies’ customers.

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INSURANCE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA rate cuts a double-edged sword for first-home buyers

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 19 : 6-Feb-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. Sally Tindall of RateCity says the key focus will be on whether the central bank removes its tightening bias. Meanwhile, money markets now expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate by 25 per cent in both August and November. Ray White’s chief economist Nerida Conisbee notes that interest rate cuts will increase the borrowing power of first home buyers, but can also be expected to further boost house prices.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RATECITY PTY LTD, RAY WHITE GROUP

ALP support jumps strongly (up 2.5%) after detail of Stage 3 tax cuts is revealed: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-24

Labor government support jumped 2.5% to 53% well ahead of the Coalition on 47% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, according to the latest Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention. Support rebounded after the Albanese Government provided detail on its changes to the ‘Stage 3 tax cuts’ due in mid-year. Treasury analysis shows 84% of taxpayers will be better off under the changes. If this week’s result was repeated at a Federal Election the Albanese government would be returned with a large majority. ALP primary support increased 2% to 33%, Coalition support dropped 0.5% to 37%, the Greens dropped 1% to 12% and One Nation dropped 0.5% to 5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties was unchanged at 13%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,709 Australian electors from January 29 – February 4. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Streaming quotas may violate FTA

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian – Page: 22 : 6-Feb-24

The federal government is under renewed scrutiny over its plans to impose local content requirements on streaming video services, which are largely based in the US. The Computer & Communications Industry Association has warned that local content quotas could constitute a breach of the free-trade agreement between Australia and the US. Amazon in turn notes that some of its TV shows and documentaries that are filmed in Australia will not qualify as local content because they were not produced under the complete control of Australians. Amazon adds that a quota system would increase production costs.

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COMPUTER AND COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED

WA gold miners Silver Lake, Red 5 in $2.2bn merger deal

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Original article by Giuseppe Tauriello
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 6-Feb-24

Shares in gold miner Red 5 rose by three per cent to $0.34 on Monday, in response to a proposed merger with Silver Lake Resources. Red 5 is offering 3.434 of its shares for every Silver Lake share, and Red 5 shareholders will own 51.7 per cent of the merged entity if the deal is approved. The deal has the support of both groups’ boards, and Red 5 chairman Russell Clark does not expect a bidding war to emerge. The combined company would be the fifth-largest gold miner on the Australian sharemarket, with annual production of about 445,000 ounces.

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RED 5 LIMITED – ASX RED, SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SLR

Australian academic Yang Hengjun given suspended death sentence by Chinese court

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Original article by Helen Davidson, Ben Doherty, Paul Karp
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 6-Feb-24

Foreign Minister Penny Wong says the federal government is appalled by the decision of a Chinese court to impose a suspended death sentence on Australian academic Yang Hengjun. An Australian citizen who was born in China, he was arrested in 2019 at Guangzhou airport, accused of spying for an undisclosed foreign country, and has been in detention ever since. A spokesperson for his family said the court’s decision was at the "extreme end of worst expectations", while Human Rights Watch’s Australia director, Daniela Gavshon, said Yang’s sentence was "catastrophic".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

Aussies to splash $465 million in the name of love amid cost-of-living squeeze

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-24

Research from the Australian Retailers Association, in conjunction with Roy Morgan, shows that 3.4 million Australians will buy Valentine’s Day gifts this year, down 700,000 from 2023. Australians are forecast to spend $465 million this Valentine’s Day (down 4.1% or $20 million from 2023). While the overall spend and number of Valentine’s Day shoppers is tipped to fall this year, those who are gift-giving are set to spend $135 per head (up from $118 in 2023 or 14.4%). The 18-34 age demographic remains the highest-spending demographic and is set to spend $145 million on Valentine’s Day this year, down substantially from $215 million last year. They are closely followed by those aged 35-49, who will spend $140 million, broadly the same as last year. Flowers (mentioned by 48% of respondents), chocolates (33%) and dinner or a trip away (11%) are set to be the most popular purchases. This ARA-Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 5,670 Australians aged 18+ on Wednesday January 24 – Wednesday January 31, including 685 who plan on buying gifts for Valentine’s Day.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Inflation Expectations in late January are at 5.1% – down by 0.2% points from the month of December (5.3%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of January 22-28, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.1% and 0.2% points lower than the month of December. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for December shows the measure at 5.3% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on November (5.4%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for November has raised hopes that the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the December quarterly and monthly inflation readings later this week, which will inform the RBA’s actions at their first meeting of the year next week. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,028 Australians aged 14+ in December 2023.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Prominent Australians urge Albanese government to adopt activist middle power role to head off war between US and China

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Original article by Daniel Hurst
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

Academics, former politicians and social justice advocate are among 50 prominent Australians who have signed a joint statement calling for the federal government to take a key role in easing tensions between the US and China. They have called for a ‘new detente’ between the two nations in order to reduce threats to both regional and global peace and prosperity. The signatories have argued that Australia can play an ‘activist middle power diplomacy’ role, in close consultation with its key neighbours in the Indo-Pacific region.

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