Author: roymorgansocial

Kickstart productivity or be kicked: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Giuseppe Tauriello
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-May-23

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting show that the decision to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in May was a "finely balanced" one. Amongst other things, the board members noted that the nation’s declining productivity since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic could make it difficult to bring inflation back under control. The RBA has warned that further interest rate increases are likely unless productivity is ‘kickstarted’. Analysts believe that quarterly wage price index data to be released on Wednesday could determine whether the RBA increases the cash rate in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

New Zealanders are increasingly worried about interest rates as RBNZ raises rates to 14-year highs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-23

The latest Roy Morgan research into the attitudes of New Zealanders towards the level of interest rates shows that the Reserve Bank of NZ’s record 11 rate rises in 18 months are clearly having an impact. Some 54.1% of New Zealanders were worried about interest rates in the year to December 2022, compared with just 34.6% in the year to June 2021. The rapid series of interest rate increases since late 2021 is hitting New Zealanders with a mortgage harder than anyone else; 63.3% of New Zealanders who are paying off their home loan say they are ‘worried about interest rates at the moment’, up from 23.1% in June 2021. Concern about interest rates has increased for renters and home owners as well, but at a much lower rate. Now around half of renters (50.1%) and home owners (49.2%) say they are worried about interest rates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Push for BHP boss to give evidence in Brazil dam disaster

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Original article by Simon Johanson
The Age – Page: Online : 17-May-23

The class action against BHP over the Samarco tailings dam collapse in 2015 is slated to be heard by the UK’s High Court in October 2024. The class action is being led by British law firm Pogust Goodhead; global managing partner Tom Goodhead says the firm wants senior BHP executives to give evidence if the case proceeds to trial, potentially including current CEO Mike Henry. He adds that the firm wants BHP to "do the right thing" and attempt to reach a settlement in the case, more than seven years after the disaster that claimed 19 lives and caused an environmental catastrophe.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, POGUST GOODHEAD, HIGH COURT OF ENGLAND AND WALES, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA

Rinehart’s dire mining prediction

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Original article by John Stensholt
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 17-May-23

Mining magnate Gina Rinehart notes that mining capital expenditure is currently about $40bn a year, compared with more than $100bn annually at the peak of the previous mining boom about a decade ago. Rinehart describes the $60bn investment gap as a missed opportunity for Australia. She contends that government policy needs to be more supportive of the resources sector if Australia is to continue to produce future-facing commodities that are needed for the energy transition. Rinehart adds that the remaining mine life of Hancock Prospecting’s Roy Hill project is about 10 years, but this can be extended if the regulatory regime is more amenable.

CORPORATES
HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD

BHP to sit out battle for miner Teck

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 17-May-23

BHP CEO Mike Henry addressed the annual Bank of America Merrill Lynch conference in Barcelona on Tuesday. He said the resources group will maintain a "disciplined" approach to mergers and acquisitions, and its focus will be on internal growth options such as nickel, copper and the Jansen potash project in Canada. Sources have indicated that BHP is unlikely to enter any bidding war for Teck Resources, given that its copper mines are the only assets that would be of real interest. BHP would not want to increase its exposure to coking coal via the acquisition of Teck, given that it is already trying to sell some existing mines.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, TECK RESOURCES LIMITED

No Budget Bounce as ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 75.9 – lowest since early April 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 75.9 in the week to 14 May. The index has now spent 11 straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 13.4pts below the same week a year ago (89.3), and 4.4pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.3. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA; however, it was up in Victoria. Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 56% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a new record high for this indicator). Some 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Supermarkets dominate the fresh bread market but Bakers Delight captures an out-sized share of the dollars spent

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-23

Research by Roy Morgan shows that Woolworths and Coles accounted for 60.4% of the total dollars spent in Australia’s $2.5 billion fresh bread market in the year to December 2022. The combined market share of the two supermarket giants is down from 51.9% in 2018, when the fresh break market was worth $2.9bn. Woolworths has retained its title as Australia’s largest retailer of fresh bread, with a market share of 30.6%, just ahead of Coles on 29.8%. Some 39.1% of fresh bread buyers now shop at Woolworths in an average week, while 37.6% shop at Coles; this is well ahead of Aldi (10.1%), Baker’s Delight (8%) and IGA (6.3%). These results are from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of over 60,000 people per annum, including over 35,000 grocery buyers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, BAKER’S DELIGHT HOLDINGS LIMITED, IGA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.7 after the RBA unexpectedly increases interest rates again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 77.7 in the week to 7 May. The index has now spent 10 straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 12.8pts below the same week a year ago (90.5), and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.6. As usual Consumer Confidence was mixed around the States, with decreases in Victoria, WA and SA, but up slightly in NSW and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 3.4 points to 90.2 in April before the RBA hiked interest rates in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

In April 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.2 (down 3.4pts since March), before the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.85%. Business Confidence has returned to its level of November 2022 (90.2), when official interest rates were at 2.85%; there have since been four interest rate increases, totalling 1% points. Business Confidence is now 22.1pts below the long-term average of 112.3. Now 38.7% (down 3.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.7% (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 5.6ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 51.7% (up 6.5ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. Only 37.4% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 60.1% (down 0.2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian employment hit a record high above 13.8 million in April as unemployment fell 0.9% to 8.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 124,000 to 1.29 million (8.5% of the workforce) in April. However, underemployment was up 21,000 to 1.34 million (8.9% of the workforce). A total of 2.63 million Australians (17.4% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in April, down 103,000 from March. Meanwhile, employment increased by 240,000 to 13,814,000 in April. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 68,000 to a new record high of 9,058,000; part-time employment also increased, up 172,000 to 4,756,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for April is 5% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for March and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS