Author: roymorgansocial

No rush to strike a tariff deal with volatile Trump

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Original article by Cameron Stewart
The Australian – Page: 6 : 14-May-25

Australia is among more than 50 countries that hope to negotiate a better tariffs arrangement with the Trump administration in the wake of the global turmoil caused by the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ in early April. Australia failed to receive an exemption from the baseline tariff of 10 per cent and a tariff of 25 per cent on steel and aluminium exports, despite being one of the few countries that has a trade surplus with the US. However, government officials have indicated that Labor will adopt a "wait and see" approach, and assess the outcome of other countries’ negotiations with the US before seeking a deal on tariffs.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

In April Australian unemployment increased to 11.2% driven primarily by more people joining the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

In April 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 176,000 to 1,780,000 (up 1%, to 11.2% of the workforce), with more people joining the workforce and overall employment dropping. The expansion in the workforce was the main driver of the increase in unemployment with 156,000 people joining the workforce, lifting the number of Australians in the workforce to 15,946,000 (69.4% of Australians aged 14+). Overall employment fell slightly by 20,000 to 14,166,000; the decrease was driven by a drop in full-time employment (down 291,000 to 9,094,000), although part-time employment grew 271,000 to 5,072,000. In addition to the unemployed, 1.47 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 43,000 from March). In total 3.25 million Australians (20.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in April. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.2% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for March, but is in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 88.3 after the Albanese Labor Government was easily re-elected

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 88.3 in the week to 11 May, after the Federal Government was re-elected with a two-party preferred swing of around 2.5%. Consumer Confidence is now 8.1 points above the same week a year ago (80.2), and 2pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Analysis by State shows increases in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but decreases in South Australia and Queensland. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 13% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ley puts tax, economic reform on to-do list

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-May-25

Federal Opposition leader Sussan Ley has indicated that all of the Coalition’s policies will be up for review in the wake of the election defeat on 3 May. This includes nuclear energy and the net zero emissions target of 2050. Ley added that economic and tax reform will be priorities for the Coalition; she also committed to consulting with her colleagues and the community in reviewing the Coalition’s policies. Robert Carling from the Centre for Independent Studies says the Coalition needs to abandon ‘populist’ policies. Ley has become the Liberal Party’s first female leader at federal level, after defeating Angus Taylor 29-25 in a party room vote on Tuesday. New deputy leader Ted O’Brien is expected to replace Taylor as shadow treasurer.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED

Cabinet backs above-CPI wage rise for low paid

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 5 : 14-May-25

The newly sworn-in cabinet ministers have approved the federal government’s submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual wage review. The submission will argue the case for an "economically sustainable real wage increase" for workers on the minimum wage and industry award wages. The government has not specified a percentage increase, although it says this must be above the inflation rate. The budget papers in March had forecast an inflation rate of 2.5 per cent in 2024-25 and three per cent in 2025-26. The ACTU has called for a minimum wage rise of 4.5 per cent from 1 July.

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AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

Critical minerals bonanza might be hidden in waste

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Original article by Mark Wembridge
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 14-May-25

The Mine Reuse Project has been launched by the Geological Survey of NSW, Geoscience Australia and the University of Queensland. The project is analysing the waste deposits of current and defunct mines in NSW to determine if they contain critical minerals that had previously been overlooked. Analysis of 1,200 samples of mine waste has found elevated concentrations of 11 critical minerals and metals across 28 current and abandoned mines. The project could potentially lead to the reopening of mines across NSW, and provide a new source of the minerals that are crucial to the energy transition and whose global supply is dominated by China at present.

CORPORATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND

Unease stirs inside Labor on super tax

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has confirmed that the federal government intends to proceed with legislation to double the tax rate on superannuation balances exceeding $3m and introduce a tax on unrealised capital gains. Some Labor MPs have expressed concern about the proposed superannuation tax changes, noting that the reforms had generated a lot of negative feedback at polling booths on election day. Independent MP Allegra Spender says that although Labor now has a mandate for superannuation tax reform. she contends that it is "bad policy" and should be reconsidered.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Gurner warns tenants of 15-year rental crisis

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Original article by Sarah Petty
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-May-25

Data from Cotalitys shows that housing market rents have increased by 39.9 per cent since March 2019. Rent payments now account for about one-third of many tenants’ income. Apartment developer Tim Gurner has warned that the nation’s rental crisis is likely to last for up to 15 years, due to the lack of sufficient new housing supply. He notes that vacancy rates are about one per cent in every state, while construction supply is at a 10-year low and population growth is at record levels. Gurner adds that high construction costs are the biggest problem for property developers.

CORPORATES
COTALITY

Rate cuts still on the way after tariff pause

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 14-May-25

IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner has described the 90-day tariff pause agreed to by the US and China as a "small step forward". However, he cautions that the significant tariffs that remain in place during the temporary truce in the trade war will still be a major challenge for US households, businesses and the broader economy. Meanwhile, financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points in September; the Reserve Bank of Australia is in turn tipped to cut the cash rate three times before the end of 2025, by 85 basis points in total.

CORPORATES
IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UMOW LAI & ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rio Tinto’s declining iron ore blend to hit revenues

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 14-May-25

Rio Tinto has advised Asian steel mills that the iron content in each tonne of its flagship ‘Pilbara Blend Fines’ product will be permanently reduced from 61.6 per cent to 60.8 per cent. The change is scheduled to take effect in the September quarter, and reflects a decline in the quality of Rio Tinto’s iron ore. The downgrade will affect the company’s earnings, while independent economist Saul Eslake says it is also likely to have an impact on the federal and Western Australian governments’ budgets. Rio Tinto has also indicated that its Pilbara Blend Fines will also have higher levels of impurities.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO