Author: roymorgansocial

RBA not in mood to keep cutting

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Mar-25

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting in February show that it considered leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent. The RBA board subsequently concluded that the case for an interest rate cut of 25 basis points was a "stronger one". However, the minutes emphasised that further interest cuts are by no means certain, a point that the RBA also made in a statement that was released after the two-day board meeting in mid-February. Money markets have now priced in two further interest rate cuts in 2025, beginning in July; the federal election must be held no later than 17 May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

US halts arms, PM gets willing

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 5-Mar-25

US President Donald Trump has suspended all military support for Ukraine, including weapons that were already in transit to the war-torn country. Senior Defense Department officials said the pause will remain in place until Trump is satisfied that Ukraine’s leaders have demonstrated a ‘good faith’ commitment to peace. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has indicated that the federal government would consider providing soldiers for a ‘coalition of the willing’ peacekeeping force in Ukraine if it were asked to do so. However, Peter Dean from the US Studies Centre contends that the Indo-Pacific region should be Australia’s top priority.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF DEFENSE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE

RBA interest rate bounce in February is short-lived as ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 87.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Mar-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 87.7 in the week to 2 March, after a significant increase the week before following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut official interest rates. However, Consumer Confidence is now 6.1 points above the same week a year ago (81.0), but only 0.6 points above the 2025 weekly average of 87.1. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but small increases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since before the Black Friday sales period), while 44% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Zelensky ready to work with Trump to secure peace deal

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Original article by Hans van Leeuwen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 5-Mar-25

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to mend his strained relations with US President Donald Trump by stating via social media that his nation is committed to peace. Zelensky also said that Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring a lasting peace closer, and his team stands ready to work under Trump’s "strong leadership" to negotiate a peace deal. Zelensky acknowledged that his controversial meeting with Trump and Vice-President JD Vance in the Oval Office last week "did not go the way it was supposed to be", and it is "time to make things right".

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

ASX faces dividend horror story as companies slash payouts

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Mar-25

The combined dividend payout for companies in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index was just $31.2bn in the February reporting season. Bell Potter strategist Richard Coppleson notes that it is the lowest payout for this period since 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The three major listed iron ore miners reduced their dividends in response to a sharp fall in the price of the steel input during 2024. Citigroup expects further decline in the mining sector’s dividends, amid expectations that the iron ore price will also fall as new supply enters the market later in 2025. The firm also anticipates lower dividends from bank stocks, which dominate the ASX along with resources stocks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Investors tell Rio to ditch issuance

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Mar-25

Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm recently indicated that the resources group is seriously considering a share placement in Australia. This would boost liquidity and help to reduce an imbalance whereby the London Stock Exchange accounts for about 77 per cent of the dual-listed company’ shares. However, Rio Tinto executives who met with Australian investors last week encountered strong resistance to any share issue. Wilson Asset Management portfolio manager Matt Haupt contended that Rio Tinto should instead opt for a bond issuance if it needs more cash.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

REA banks on news.com.au to beat Domain bidder

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Original article by Sam Buckingham-Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 5-Mar-25

News Corporation has a majority stake in REA Group, which in turn owns the realestate.com.au property listings portal. News Corp CEO Robert Thomson has downplayed concerns about US-based CoStar’s takeover bid for rival property listings group Domain Holdings. Thomson says CoStar lacks a publishing network and would have to ramp up the marketing of Domain to increase its market share. Thomson adds that News Corp has a comparative advantage, as it can leverage its media assets – including the news.com.au website – to drive traffic to REA Group.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, REALESTATE.COM.AU, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, COSTAR GROUP INCORPORATED

Risk of mortgage stress increased in January, before the Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Mar-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,633,000 mortgage holders (28.9%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in January 2025. This represents a third straight monthly increase since October, but is still 1.4% lower than the June figures prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts. Modelling by Roy Morgan shows that the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘At Risk’ will fall by 26,000 in February to 1,607,000 (28.4% of mortgage holders) following the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut; the number of mortgages ‘At Risk’ is set to drop further if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again in April. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,043,000 (18.9% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with more than 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up marginally by 0.6pts to 96.6 in February – before RBNZ cuts interest rates in late February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose marginally to 96.6 in February. The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions, eased 1 point to 103.2; the current conditions index rose 3 points to 86.7. Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 5 points to a net rating of -12% in February; only 26% of respondents said they are ‘better off financially’ compared to a year ago (up 3% points), while 38% (down 1% point) say they are ‘worse off financially’. Meanwhile, a net 21% of respondents expect to be ‘better off’ this time next year (down 2% points from a month ago), and a net 15% of respondents think it is a ‘bad time’ to buy a major household item. Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose 0.1% pts to 4.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian women earn nearly $30,000 less than men a year, the governments latest pay gap report finds

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Original article by Kate Lyons, Eelemarni Close-Brown
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 4-Mar-25

Data from the Workplace Gender Equality Agency shows that the gender pay gap narrowed at 56 per cent of employers in the year to March 2024. However, the data indicates that the gender pay gap at 72.2 per cent of employers still favours male workers, while just 6.5 per cent have a pay gap that favours women; some 21.3% of employers have a neutral gender pay gap, whereby the difference in wages for male and female workers is no more than five per cent. Meanwhile, the gender pay gap is largest in male-dominated industries such as construction and financial services.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. WORKPLACE GENDER EQUALITY AGENCY