Author: roymorgansocial

Steel mills to the rescue as Rio mines slow

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 17-Jul-19

Rio Tinto has advised that production at its flagship Pilbara iron ore mines totalled 155.7 million tonnes in the first half of 2019, which is eight per cent lower than previously. Pilbara iron ore shipments also fell by eight per cent, to 154.6 million tonnes. Export volumes were affected by factors such as cyclone activity and a fire at Cape Lambert port during the half-year. Rio Tinto received an average price of $US85.30 per tonne, excluding the cost of freight, an increase of 35 per cent compared with the same period in 2018.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED

Prices will start to rise again this year: ANZ

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 17-Jul-19

The ANZ Bank’s quarterly housing report is upbeat about the outlook for the residential property market. The bank expects the housing market downturn to reach bottom in the next few months, with a modest rebound toward the end of the year. ANZ forecasts house price growth of 3-4 per cent in Sydney during 2020, with prices in Melbourne to increase by four per cent. The bank had not expected any house price growth in 2019 as recently as May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

RBA flags another rate cut if jobs market deteriorates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 2 : 17-Jul-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated in the minutes of its monthly board meeting that there is likely to be spare capacity in the labour market for some time, while jobs growth is likely to ‘moderate’. Labour market data for June will be released on 18 July, and the official unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 5.2 per cent. The employment and inflation outlook is likely to influence the timing of further interest rate cuts; some economists say the RBA may wait to gauge the impact of the cuts in June and July before further easing monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Lower taxes can lift growth and wages

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 17-Jul-19

The University of Melbourne’s John Freebairn argues that reducing the tax rate for larger companies would stimulate economic growth and help to increase wages. He adds that a tax cut for large companies with non-resident shareholders in particular would boost GDP growth. The federal government has ruled out further attempts to introduce tax cuts for businesses with annual turnover of more than $50m following the bill’s rejection by the Senate.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence moderates to 115.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jul-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.5% to 115.9 in the week ended 14 July, following a decline of 1.1% in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, while views towards future financial conditions fell 1.5%; this compares to up-ticks of 3.7% and 1.3% respectively for the previous week. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 1% and views toward future economic conditions fell 2.6%, after falls of 3.6% and 1.7% respectively in the previous week. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was unchanged, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was flat at 4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Don’t expect pay rises, warn 40pc of CEOs

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 16-Jul-19

The Executive Connection’s latest survey of CEOs shows that more than 37 per cent expect their employees to receive no pay rise in 2019, or at best an increase of no more than two per cent. A third of respondents expect pay rises of 2-3 per cent, and 14 per cent expect wages to increase by at least four per cent. Meanwhile, 66 per cent have indicated that they are either adopting or considering flexible working conditions to attract and retain top staff, while 30 per cent are seeking to reduce labour costs by investing in automation.

CORPORATES
THE EXECUTIVE CONNECTION PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, McDONALD’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, HUNGRY JACK’S PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Labor decries Coalition complacency on economy

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Jul-19

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson contends that a slowdown in the economy is not the main reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates in two consecutive months. Rather, he suggests that it is because the RBA has changed its view on how many new jobs need to be created in order to stimulate wage growth. Labor’s treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers says the opinion expressed in the latest Deloitte Business Outlook report is "just one opinion in a range of opinions". Chalmers claims that the Australian economy has gotten worse since the federal election, but that the Coalition still has its feet up.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

AMP rattled as $3.3bn sale breaks down

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 16-Jul-19

Shares in AMP closed 15.81 per cent lower at $1.81 on 15 July after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand thwarted the proposed sale of its life insurance division. The central bank said it would not support the sale of AMP Life NZ to the UK-based Resolution Life unless the assets underpinning New Zealanders’ policies are ‘ring-fenced’. AMP still hopes to secure a deal, but analysts say any sale now is likely to be at a much lower price than the $3.3bn that Resolution Life had agreed to pay. AMP has also advised that investors will not receive an interim dividend, citing uncertainty regarding the sale of AMP Life.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AMP LIFE LIMITED, RESOLUTION LIFE GROUP LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Stubborn workers keep lid on wages

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 16-Jul-19

Analysis by the Treasury suggests that the reluctance of workers to leave unproductive companies has been a major contributor to Australia’s low wages growth. Treasury’s deputy secretary Meghan Quinn says the research shows that there is a link between the frequency of job switching and higher real wages, including for people who stay in their existing job. The national rate of job-switching is now about eight per cent, compared with 11 per cent in the early 2000s.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, ECONOMIC SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

LNG breaks record with $50.5b of exports

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 16-Jul-19

Data from EnergyQuest shows that LNG was Australia’s third-biggest source of export revenue in 2018-19, after iron ore and coal. LNG exports totalled 75.1 million tonnes by volume, an increase of 21.2 per cent, and about $50.5bn in terms of value. Shipments from Queensland’s three LNG plants increased from 20.5 million tonnes in 2017-18 to 21.8 million tonnes, although new LNG projects in Western Australia and the Northern Territory were the main driver of the growth in exports. The federal government expects LNG export earnings to peak at $54bn in 2019-20.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, CHEVRON CORPORATION, GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY