Author: roymorgansocial

RBA cash rate below 1pc tipped

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-May-19

Financial markets have priced in a 25 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate three times by the end of 2019. However, economists are sceptical as to whether a cash rate of one per cent or less would provide sufficient economic stimulus to meet the central bank’s revised growth forecast of 2.75 per cent. Commonwealth Bank economists say that an interest rate cut in June would help to stabilise house prices and stimulate the economy in the second half of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

How to fix Australian polling

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Original article by John Utting
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 54 : 23-May-19

Australia’s polling industry requires ‘root and branch’ reform in the wake of the federal election, with public opinion polls consistently showing that Labor was set to win. The question arises as to whether these polls have had a pro-Labor bias for the last several years, rather than just during the election campaign. The polling industry needs to ensure that their samples are more representative of the population, even though this will be more expensive. There must also be greater transparency regarding the methodology used and the number of people who were polled. Polling companies must also disclose any potential conflicts of interest; Galaxy YouGov Research, for example, produced public opinion polls during the election while also undertaking Labor’s internal polling.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, GALAXY YOUGOV RESEARCH, NEWSPOLL

Coalition on course to buffer its electoral clout

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Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 5 : 23-May-19

Liberal candidate Susan Richards had a slim lead in the seat of Macquarie as counting of postal and absentee votes continued on 22 May. Winning the seat from Labor would give the Coalition a total of 78 seats in the lower house. Several other seats remain in doubt, although Labor seems set to win Lilley, Cowan and Hunter, while the Liberal Party is likely to win Bass. The Coalition had 51.2 per cent of the two-party preferred vote on 22 May, compared with 48.8 per cent for Labor.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Morrison keeps cabinet big to ensure harmony

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-May-19

Key federal government ministers are set to retain their existing portfolios when Prime Minister Scott Morrison reveals his new cabinet team. They include Josh Frydenberg, Mathias Cormann, Peter Dutton, Marise Payne and Greg Hunt. There is speculation that Arthur Sinodinos, Alan Tudge and Ken Wyatt will be elevated to cabinet, while Mitch Fifield may be dropped from the frontbench. Tim Wilson, Michael Sukkar and Jane Hume are among those who have been suggested as possible candidates for portfolios in the outer ministry. Morrison is expected to make minimal changes to the frontbench.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Treasurer tells banks to lend amid slowdown

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 23-May-19

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has welcomed the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s move to ease mortgage lending restrictions. He says the move will ensure continued access to credit for both households and businesses, and he argues that banks have an "economic and social responsibility" to keep lending. Frydenberg also says the Coalition’s tax and infrastructure policies will be key drivers of economic growth and job creation. Frydenberg met with APRA chairman Wayne Byres and Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe on 22 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

It’s Albo v ScoMo as Bowen exits race

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-May-19

Jim Chalmers has emerged as Anthony Albanese’s most likely rival for the Labor leadership, after shadow treasurer Chris Bowen announced that he will not be a contender. Bowen believes that he would have won the caucus ballot, but concedes that he lacked sufficient support to gain the rank-and-file vote. There is now strong support for Albanese within Bowen’s NSW Right faction, while most of the Left faction also supports Albanese. Chalmers is expected to decide whether to make a tilt for the leadership on 23 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ADANI MINING PTY LTD

Bruised Bowen wades into ALP battle

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 22-May-19

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen intends to contest the federal Labor leadership, even though many members of his NSW Right faction intend to support Left faction contender Anthony Albanese. Some members of the Right faction argue that Bowen should not contest the leadership as he is too closely linked to the party’s tax policies that were rejected by voters, including its proposal to scrap franking credit refunds. Bowen concedes that this policy was controversial, but he says other factors also cost Labor the election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

BHP raises the bar on electric vehicle forecasts

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 22-May-19

Resources giant BHP is bullish about global demand for electric cars. Its forecast for the proportion of vehicle sold in 2035 that are electric has been increased from a minimum of 10 per cent to 16 per cent, while it now expects at least seven per cent of light vehicles sold in 2035 will be electric. BHP’s Huw McKay says the take-up rate of electric cars will depend on factors such as investment in recharging infrastructure. BHP has exposure to the electric car battery market via its copper and nickel mines.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, KIDMAN RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX KDR, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Legislation needed to stop tax office overreach

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 25 : 22-May-19

There was bipartisan political support for the proposed independent small business tax tribunal ahead of the 2019 federal election. The lawyer-free tribunal was intended to address the toxic culture at the Australian Taxation Office with regard to its treatment of small businesses, but the ATO’s abuse of small businesses appears to be continuing. The newly re-elected Coalition government must take all necessary action to ensure that there is much-needed cultural change at the ATO.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE AUSTRALIAN SMALL BUSINESS AND FAMILY ENTERPRISE OMBUDSMAN, AUSTRALIA. ADMINISTRATIVE APPEALS TRIBUNAL

Weak Shorten: union calls for party overhaul

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Original article by Mark Ludlow, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 22-May-19

Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union official Shane Brunker says the federal election shows that Labor has lost touch with grass-roots supporters. He has accused former Labor leader Bill Shorten of "pandering to inner-city voters" at the expense of the party’s traditional supporter base, and warned that the Queensland government also faces an election defeat in 2020 unless it heeds this message. Labor’s lack of clarity regarding Adani’s proposed Carmichael coal mine contributed to its poor election performance in regional Queensland.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ADANI MINING PTY LTD, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET