Author: roymorgansocial

Politicians silent on inflation target change

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 30-Apr-19

The need for the Reserve Bank’s inflation target continues to attract scrutiny, given that inflation remains well below its target range of 2-3 per cent. Warren Hogan and David Bassanesse are among the economists who believe that the central bank should revise its inflation target, although Westpac’s Bill Evans argues that doing so would have an impact on inflation expectations. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and shadow treasurer Chris Bowen have declined to comment on the prospect of government intervention regarding the inflation target after the federal election.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Priceless: Bill’s climate costs

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Original article by Simon Benson, Joe Kelly, Ben Packham, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Apr-19

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says it is not possible to put a single price on the cost of Labor’s carbon emission reduction targets. Shorten was speaking during the first leaders’ debate on 29 April. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the Coalition deserves to be returned to office on the basis of its economic performance, while he noted its commitment to create 100,000 jobs for young Australians. The debate was held in front of 48 undecided voters in the Seven West Media studio in Perth; 25 stated that they thought Shorten won the debate, 12 said Morrison had won and 11 were undecided

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

The votes are in: Macquarie joins calls for an early cut in interest rates

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Original article by Perry Williams, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 30-Apr-19

The chances of a reduction in the cash rate in May is around 50 per cent, according to financial market pricing. However, a growing number of economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to ease monetary policy in May. Macquarie Group is the latest to forecast a rate cut in May, and chief economist Ric Deverell says the RBA is unlikely to be unduly concerned about reducing the cash rate during an election campaign. Macquarie says the central bank might also reduce its GDP growth and inflation forecasts at the monthly board meeting.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

The end of an era for Lowy family

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 30-Apr-19

Peter Lowy will step down from the board of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield at its AGM in May, having flagged his intention to retire from the board in March. Steven Lowy retired as a director of Scentre Group, which owns and operates Westfield shopping centres in Australia, in April. Peter Lowy’s decision means an end to the presence of the Lowy family on Westfield boards after more than 50 years. Meanwhile, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield CFO Jaap Tonckens says Unibail-Rodamco has "zero regrets" concerning the $32 billion Westfield takeover.

CORPORATES
UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD – ASX URW, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, WESTFIELD CORPORATION, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO

Forrest’s AIE leads LNG import race

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Original article by Matthew Stevens
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 30-Apr-19

Australian Industrial Energy has secured regulatory approval to use Port Kembla in New South Wales as the location for its proposed LNG import terminal. At this stage, AIE, which is 50 per cent owned by Andrew Forrest’s Squadron Energy, does not have a CEO. Choosing a CEO is likely to be one of its two main goals before making a final decision on whether to proceed with its LNG terminal, along with securing some firm customers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRIAL ENERGY PTY LTD, SQUADRON ENERGY, MARUBENI CORPORATION, JERA, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL

Facebook, Google are not publishers: US anti-trust expert

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 30-Apr-19

US competition lawyer Howard Shelanski has urged caution when it comes to passing laws that would dictate how Facebook and Google should display content or refer users to news websites. Shelanski, who is a partner with law firm Davis Polk and advises Facebook on competition law, contends that Google and Facebook are not publishers. On the question of mergers, Shelanski says there needs to be greater acknowledgement of the value of competition and innovation when regulators are assessing them.

CORPORATES
FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, DAVIS POLK AND WARDWELL, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

Confession season to give rally a reality check

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 30-Apr-19

The Australian sharemarket has had its best start to a calendar year since 1991, despite retreating on 29 April. However, the banks’ reporting season will be the next key test for the local bourse, along with trading updates from other listed companies. Meanwhile, the consensus forecast for growth in earnings per share in 2019 is 2.8 per cent, compared with 8.4 per cent at the same time in 2018.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

Sydney house prices fall 3.1pc over March quarter

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner, Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 30-Apr-19

Domain Holdings analyst Nicola Powell says Sydney’s residential property market downturn is close to being the longest on record. She adds that the median house price in Sydney will fall below $1m if prices continue to fall at the current rate. The median house price has fallen from $1,161,083 to $1,027,962 in the last year. Data from Domain shows that house prices in Sydney have fallen by 14.3 per cent since peaking in mid-2017.

CORPORATES
DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC

Parties locked in close contest for second week: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

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For the second straight week the two major parties are locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of April 27/28, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors.

Primary Voting Intention

Both major parties managed to increase their primary votes this week at the expense of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result ahead of tonight’s first Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in Perth.

The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39.5% (up 0.5%) and remains clearly ahead of the ALP on 36% (up 0.5%) while Greens support is unchanged on 9.5%. Support for One Nation is down 2% to 2.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is unchanged on 2%. Support for Independents/Others is up 1% to 10.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence

Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 43% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 3% from a week earlier while 41.5% (up 0.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction.

These results put Government Confidence marginally above the neutral level of 100 now at 101.5, up 3.5pts from a week ago.

Electors were asked: “At the Federal election for the House of Representatives on May 18 – which party will receive your first preference?? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 826 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of April 27/28, 2019. 4.5% of electors can’t say who they support.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 151 electorates ranked by an issue).

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan data, please contact:

Contact Office Mobile
Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093

Game on – Game won?

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-19

Last Tuesday April 23, Roy Morgan Poll published ‘Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis’. The face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll was conducted on the weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors. The latest Newspoll, published in ‘The Australian’ on Monday April 29, also shows Labor leading the L-NP 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA