Author: roymorgansocial

House values expected to fall sharply

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 10-Apr-19

Moody’s Analytics forecasts that house prices will fall by 9.3 per cent in Sydney during 2019, and apartment prices will decline by 5.9 per cent. The ratings agency expects the prices of houses and apartments in Melbourne to fall by 11.4 per cent and five per cent respectively. Moody’s economist Katrina Ell says factors such as stricter lending conditions in the wake of the Hayne royal commission and Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms could weigh on the housing market. Moody’s expects the cash rate to remain on hold until mid-2021, although it says further housing market weakness could see a rate cut before the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Margin pressures put squeeze on US outlook

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Apr-19

The S&P 500 has gained 23 per cent since late December 2018, and it is close to a record high. However, some observers expect the S&P 500 to record year-on-year negative earnings growth in the March 2019 quarter, for the first time in about three years. Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley and Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup are upbeat about the earnings outlook for the March quarter, but they are cautious about the outlook for the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Three wasted years since Abbott stopped the boats

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Original article by Judith Sloan
The Australian – Page: 12 : 9-Apr-19

The current federal government had three important achievements under Tony Abbott, but it has arguably achieved little since, at least when it comes to economic reform. The mining tax was abolished under Abbott, as was the carbon pricing scheme, while asylum-seeker boats were stopped. The company tax rate for small business has been cut post-Abbott, but little has happened in the way of industrial relations reform. Meanwhile, regulated immigration "has been open slather".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. REGISTERED ORGANISATIONS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROAD SAFETY REMUNERATION TRIBUNAL, MARITIME UNION OF AUSTRALIA

Stretched Australians unable to reduce debt

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 9-Apr-19

An EY survey has found that just 28 per cent of Australians expect to reduce their debt in 2019, down from 60 per cent in 2018. The survey also found that more than 60 per cent of respondents were ‘extremely’ concerned about the cost of living, suggesting that more people are not able to cut their debt because they lack the ability to do so, rather than a lack of desire to do so. It is possible that some Australians could use the tax cuts announced in the April 2019 Budget as an opportunity to reduce their debt.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Cancer doctors: Labor plan won’t cure system

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Sean Parnell
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 9-Apr-19

Reaction to Labor’s $2.3 billion cancer treatment plan has been somewhat mixed. Its announcement has been welcomed by the Royal Australian & New Zealand College of Radiologists and the Australian Diagnostic Imaging Association. However, Ben Brady of the Private Cancer Physicians of Australia says his organisation rejects compulsory bulk-billing. Brady, who is also the director of haematology and medical oncology at Cabrini Health in Melbourne, adds that it is somewhat "un-Australian" to focus on just one disease.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, THE ROYAL AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND COLLEGE OF RADIOLOGISTS, AUSTRALIAN DIAGNOSTIC IMAGING ASSOCIATION, PRIVATE CANCER PHYSICIANS OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH, CABRINI HEALTH

ALP marginals at risk of falling to Libs

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Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 6 : 9-Apr-19

The federal government is widely tipped to lose seats in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia at the upcoming election. This could potentially be offset by winning several seats in New South Wales, or at the very least retaining the same number of seats. Meanwhile, Labor’s internal polling suggests that it would have lost the NSW seats of Dobell and Lindsay if the election had been held on 6 April. Labor must gain seven lower house seats to secure majority government.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, GETUP LIMITED

Coalition’s Adani split widens

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 9-Apr-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has rejected suggestions that the federal government is holding back on granting final approvals for Adani’s proposed Carmichael coal mine for political reasons. Some Liberal-National MPs believe that the government is stalling on the issue until after the election to shore up support for the Coalition in inner-city seats where there is strong opposition to the mine. One MP notes that the mine is vital to the Coalition’s prospects of retaining marginal seats in Queensland.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, ADANI MINING PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, ONE NATION PARTY

CBA’s Colonial buy cost shareholders $54b

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Apr-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia paid $11 billion for Colonial in 2000, but fund manager Merlon Capital Partners contends that the purchase wasted over $50 billion in shareholder capital. Merlon argues that the CBA’s purchase of Colonial did not create value for its stockholders, and that it demonstrates the need for shareholders to have a greater say about large acquisitions. Merlon has previously been critical of AMP’s 2018 decision to sell its life insurance business.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COLONIAL LIMITED, MERLON CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Coalition to fast-track post-election tax cuts

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 6 : 9-Apr-19

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the timing of the election will not affect the federal government’s plans to provide tax relief via the low- and middle-income tax offset. He says that if the government wins the election, it will reconvene parliament in June to vote on its tax cuts so they can take effect from the start of the new financial year. A spokesman for the Australian Taxation Office stresses that the tax offset will only be available to taxpayers lodging their 2018-19 tax returns if the legislation is passed by 30 June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Budget delivers 2.5% swing to the L-NP but ALP still lead on a two party preferred basis: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-19

A face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll shows that the ALP 52.5% (down 2.5% from before the Federal Budget) leads the L-NP 47.5% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. The poll, which was conducted on the weekend of 6-7 April with 809 Australian electors, also shows that the ALP’s primary vote has fallen by 1.5% to 35%, while the L-NP’s primary vote has risen 2.5% to 37%. Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 2pts to 99.5 following the Federal Budget. Now 40.5% (down 1%) of electors say ‘Australia is heading in the right direction’ and 41% (up 1%) say ‘Australia is heading in the wrong direction’, and 18.5% (unchanged) can’t say.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA