Author: roymorgansocial

Employment growth stalls as overall employment down on a year ago

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,174,000 Australians were employed in February 2019, down 54,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a decrease in part-time employment of 60,000 (to 4,015,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, up by 6,000 to 8,159,000. The figures also show that 1,292,000 Australians (9.6% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 18,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,156,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 54,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,448,000 Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, a decrease of 72,000 in a year (down 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.6% for February is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.0% although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 8.6% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.1%. Meanwhile, the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends of March 2/3 & 9/10 with a representative cross-section of 1,603 electors shows the ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP’s lead amongst women is even stronger with women supporting the ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% while men also support the ALP but to a lesser degree: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine comments on the latest employment data

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The lack of jobs growth over the last year will be a significant concern for the Federal Government, which is due to seek re-election at a Federal election expected in mid-May. As well as the lack of employment growth over the past year the latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence rating for February of only 105.6 – the lowest since August 2015 – indicates Australia’s businesses are waiting for the political uncertainty to clear in a few months’ time. The consecutive ratings below 110 are the slowest start to a year for Business Confidence since the index began. The latest Australian GDP figures showed the economy growing by only 0.2% in the December 2018 quarter, the slowest rate of growth for over two years since a quarterly contraction of 0.5% in the September 2016 quarter. Given the political uncertainty facing Australia over the next two months, with a New South Wales election later in March before the Federal election expected in mid-May, the prospects for the economy and employment growth in the short-term appear to be limited. However, the Federal Government has a chance to ‘reboot the economy’ with a stimulative Federal Budget due to be delivered on the first Tuesday in April. The Budget is also the Morrison Government’s last chance to save their chances of re-election as the Roy Morgan Poll, and other polls, have consistently shown the ALP heading towards an easy election victory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Call to freeze wages for low-paid

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Original article by Ewin Hannan, Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 14-Mar-19

Restaurant & Catering Australia CEO Juliana Payne has warned that the ACTU’s push to increase the minimum wage to 60 per cent of median earnings will result in job cuts. She says there should be no increase in the minimum wage in 2019 due to the above-inflation increases of recent years, and notes that the sector cannot pass on the cost of wage rises to customers. Meanwhile, the Australian Retailers ­Association supports a 1.8 per cent increase in the minimum wage, although a survey has found that about 50 per cent of its members favour leaving it unchanged in 2019.

CORPORATES
RESTAURANT AND CATERING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Tax cuts key as economy struggles

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Original article by Adam Creighton, David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-Mar-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s chief economist Michael Blythe says the federal government should use its April 2019 Budget to announce more aggressive tax cuts than previously flagged. His view is backed by AMP’s Shane Oliver, who has called for tax cuts worth $6bn for people on low and middle incomes. Blythe has also disputed claims of a ‘per capita’ recession, arguing that key economic indicators suggest otherwise. He adds that despite lower GDP growth in 2018, real net national disposable income per capita increased by 2.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

AustralianSuper declares war on DIY funds

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 13-Mar-19

AustralianSuper CEO Ian Silk will use a speech in Brisbane on 13 March to argue for greater regulation of self-managed superannuation funds. He will tell the Conference of Major Super Funds of the need for an inquiry into the performance of SMSFs. Research by the Productivity Commission has concluded that SMSFs that hold less than $500,000 tend to perform much worse than regular super funds. Silk will also argue that super funds which consistently underperform should not be allowed to remain in business.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, CONFERENCE OF MAJOR SUPERANNUATION FUNDS (CMSF) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Newcrest focus turns to Canada

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 22 : 13-Mar-19

Barrick Gold will not proceed with a takeover bid for Newmont Mining Corporation. The two groups will instead combine their gold mines in Nevada via a joint venture arrangement. Newcrest Mining had been touted as a likely bidder for Newmont’s Australian assets if the merger had proceeded. Meanwhile, Rahul Anand of Morgan Stanley says Newcrest’s expertise in block cave mining makes the Red Chris gold mine in Canada a ‘natural fit’ for the company. Newcrest CEO Sandeep Biswas has indicated that the Red Chris deal does not preclude further acquisitions.

CORPORATES
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, NEWMONT MINING CORPORATION, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED, LUNDIN MINING CORPORATION

BHP’s epic rail fail: crew on wrong train

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 13-Mar-19

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau has released its preliminary report into a November 2018 incident in which BHP was forced to deliberately derail an iron ore train in the Pilbara. It has revealed that BHP dispatched a maintenance crew to the train after its emergency braking system failed. However, the maintenance team went to a second train that had been stopped as a precaution, so the manual handbrake on the faulty train was not engaged. BHP contends that it would not have prevented the "roll-away", which is estimated to have cost the company about $300m in lost revenue.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, AUSTRALIAN TRANSPORT SAFETY BUREAU

ACTU wants living wage in two years

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Mar-19

The ACTU will seek a six per cent increase in the minimum wage in 2019, followed by a 5.5 per cent rise in 2020. This equates to an increase of about $72.80 a week over two years, to almost $42,000 a year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus says the current minimum wage condemns many people to living below the poverty line. The Fair Work Commission rejected the ACTU’s push for a 7.2 per cent rise in the minimum wage in 2018, warning that such a large increase would result in many low-income workers losing their jobs or having their hours of work reduced.

CORPORATES
ACTU, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Shorten hit on fat cat employers

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Original article by Ben Packham, Greg Brown, Jessica Cortis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Mar-19

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says Labor could legislative to mandate that the Fair Work Commission must take into account the needs of low-income workers when setting the minimum wage. He argues that the methodology for determining the minimum wage has not changed since the 1980s. Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox rejects suggestions that the FWC does not give sufficient weight to the needs of low-paid workers, noting that the last two increases in the minimum wage were well above the inflation rate and average wage movements.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Lowest paid being in richest 20pc of households blunts wage-lift case

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 13-Mar-19

Analysis of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey shows that 13.8 per cent of the nation’s lowest-paid workers are living in the wealthiest 20 per cent of households. In contrast, 13.6 per cent of people on the lowest incomes are living in the poorest 20 per cent of households. The director of the HILDA Survey, Professor Mark Wooden, notes that many people on low incomes are secondary earners working in small business or the self-employed, particularly in wealthier households. He has also questioned the merits of a ‘living wage’, as advocated by Labor leader Bill Shorten.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA