Author: roymorgansocial

AGL could face savage hit to earnings

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 25-Oct-18

Morgan Stanley estimates that the federal government’s proposed measures to reduce electricity prices could potentially slash the 2020 EBITDA of AGL Energy and Origin Energy by up to $361m and $426m respectively. Matthew Blumberg of Hayberry Global Fund adds that government intervention in the electricity sector could in fact result in reduced competition and enable the major players to increase their market share.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, HAYBERRY GLOBAL FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CLP HOLDINGS LIMITED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR

BHP backs Scarborough project

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 25-Oct-18

Woodside Petroleum aims to commence development of the Scarborough gas field in 2020, after buying ExxonMobil’s stake earlier in 2018. Development of the project will boost the struggling petroleum division of BHP Billiton, Woodside’s partner in Scarborough. Steve Pastor, the head of BHP’s oil and gas operations, says the resources giant is upbeat about Scarborough, whose development had stalled under the joint ownership of ExxonMobil. BHP’s oil and gas production could fall to its lowest level in 20 years in 2018, following the sale of its US shale assets.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, ENERGY INTELLIGENCE GROUP INCORPORATED, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES

Obama, Clinton among those targeted in attempted US bombings

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Original article by Neil Frankland
The New Daily – Page: Online : 25-Oct-18

President Donald Trump has vowed that those responsible for a series of attempted bomb attacks on a number of prominent individuals will be brought to justice. The homes of former US presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are said to have been among the targets, while others include former CIA director John Brennan and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio. CNN’s building in Manhattan was also targeted with what are believed to have been pipe bombs, prompting the building’s evacuation.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, CNN

$19b in property loans breach new rules

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 25-Oct-18

Analysis by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that mortgage lenders approved $19bn worth of loans in the year to September that do not meet their revised lending criteria. This is $9b higher than the previous year, with major lenders recording the biggest growth in such loans. Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics says it is a concern that banks are not complying with their own rules regarding the ability of customers to service their loans. APRA notes that the new rules allow lenders to take into account exceptional circumstances when assessing a home loan application.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, SUNCORP BANK, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Gold sector told to consolidate

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 25-Oct-18

GoldCorp CEO David Garofalo expects an increase in mergers and acquisitions activity among gold producers, arguing that the large number of players in the sector means it is becoming harder to attract capital. He says further consolidation may be necessary in order to gain the support of generalist investors. Garofalo has downplayed speculation about a potential merger between GoldCorp and Newcrest Mining, which produced 548,351 ounces of gold during the first quarter of 2018-19. This is below the rate required to meet its full-year production forecast.

CORPORATES
GOLDCORP INCORPORATED, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, RANDGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SAR

Wentworth by-election means death of cheap robo-polling & leaked private party polls!

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Morgan Poll Analysis – Page: Online : 25-Oct-18

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine two days before the Wentworth by-election on Sky News’ new political show "Conroy & Kroger" when asked why she was so critical of cheap polls said: "They may be cheaper, but I can’t really see any point in doing a poll that is going to get the wrong answer. And this is not, as somebody was saying earlier, about people not wanting to tell the truth or in fact lying when they get polled, it’s not that at all, it’s just that these modern new silly ways of polling which are either robo-polls or telephone polls which only get a small proportion of the population or online polls with commercial panels of people who volunteer to be part of it, they only get a really small piece of the population." A stunning example is provided by the Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll results which last week was reported on by Carly Earl for the Guardian prior to the Wentworth by-election. The Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll primary vote predictions were significantly in error for several of the leading candidates. Out by more than 10% for Liberal Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray and out by more than 3% for the two Independent candidates Kerryn Phelps and Licia Heath. The ReachTel robo-poll’s prediction for the critical two candidate preferred result was even further out. Not only did the two-candidate preferred result compound the error made by being over 10% out on the primary vote for Liberal candidate Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray but the preference flows were a further source of error and meant the poll was completely wrong when predicting the two-candidate preferred result between Phelps and Sharma. For the full analysis and video of Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s appearance on Conroy & Kroger click through here.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, GREENPEACE, REACHTEL PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SKY NEWS

PINCHme debut proves painful for rich backers

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Original article by Ben Butler, David Swan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 25-Oct-18

Shares in PINCHme closed at $0.39 on 24 October, after the stock listed at $0.50. The data harvesting firm’s IPO raised $8m, and it was originally slated to list on the Australian sharemarket in September. However, the ASX had asked the company to disclose additional information to investors. PINCHme supplies consumers with free product samples in return for a range of personal data, and its panel members’ feedback is provided to the brands’ owners. PINCHme currently only operates in the US, and it has no immediate plans to establish operations in Australia.

CORPORATES
PINCHME.COM INCORPORATED – ASX PIN, EVEREST BABCOCK AND BROWN INCOME FUND, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, NESTLE SA, PROCTER AND GAMBLE COMPANY, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, LJCB HOLDINGS, STERNSHIP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Maximum penalty call over blockade

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Original article by Charlie Peel
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Oct-18

The Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union faces a fine of up to $33,000 for each break of workplace laws arising from the blockading of Brisbane building sites in 2012. CFMMEU official Michael Ravbar in turn could be fined up to $6,600 for each breach. The Australian Building & Construction Commission has urged the Federal Court to impose the maximum penalty on Ravbar, while it is also seeking to have him banned from entering workplaces.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSAL CRANES PTY LTD

Cut power bills by new year or else

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Oct-18

The Business Council of Australia has warned that some of the federal government’s proposed measures to put downward pressure on electricity prices could create investment uncertainty. Amongst other things, energy retailers will be required to offer default price contracts from mid-2019, while energy companies could be forced to divest assets if they fail to take sufficient action. The government also proposes to underwrite investment in new reliable energy sources. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says reducing electricity prices and cutting carbon emissions are not mutually exclusive.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY COUNCIL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, VICTORIA. DEPT OF ENVIRONMENT, LAND, WATER AND PLANNING, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence plunges to 112.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 6% to 112.3 in the week ended 21 October, closing just below its long-term average and at its lowest level for more than a year. All components of the survey fell sharply. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell by 7.1%, while sentiment regarding the future financial situation fell by 3.4%. Sentiment towards current economic conditions fell by 5.4%, while sentiment towards future economic conditions fell by 6.5%. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell by 7.8%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ