Author: roymorgansocial

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 85.5 after the end of the Friday/Cyber Monday sales period

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts to 85.5 in the week to 8 December, following the end of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales weekend. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (80.8), and 2.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country, with a reversal of last weeks’ results including decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but increases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In November Australian unemployment dropped to 8.6% as employment grew by over 180,000 to a new record high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 88,000 to 1,362,000 (down 0.6% to 8.6% of the workforce), with many of these people finding employment. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.8% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 68,000 from October. In total, 2.91 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, Australian employment increased 183,000 to 14,430,000; this increase was driven by a rise in part-time employment, up 420,000 to 5,163,000 as the pre-Christmas and Black Friday sales period kicked off, but full-time employment decreased 237,000 to 9,267,000. The total workforce in November was 15,792,000 (up 95,000 from October, and up 874,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.6% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for October but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Public sector hides bad news for unions

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 11-Dec-24

Recent data from Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that unions have recorded membership growth for the first time since 2011. However, new data reveals that this growth has been solely in the public sector, where union membership has increased by 191,000 over the last two years; in contrast, the number of private sector workers who are union members has fallen by more than 15,600 over this period. The number of public sector union members now exceed those in the private sector for the first time. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has sought to put a positive spin on the figures, but Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says they underline the fact that unions are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ACTU, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

Home values fall but rates could save the day

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 11-Dec-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices in Sydney have fallen by 0.4 per cent in the last four weeks, while the Melbourne housing market is down 0.5 per cent. Tim Lawless from CoreLogic expects the residential market to be "subdued" until the Reserve Bank starts reducing the cash rate. ANZ Bank economist Madeline Dunk says the central bank is likely to announce the first rate cut in May, although she adds that February remains a possibility. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver in turn says a rate cut in February would put a floor under house prices.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Rupert Murdoch loses bid to change control of family trust

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Original article by Jessica Toonkel, Katherine Sayre
The Australian – Page: 15 : 11-Dec-24

Nevada probate commissioner Edmund Gorman jnr has rejected a bid by media mogul Rupert Murdoch to change the terms of a family trust in favour of his oldest son, Lachlan. At present, Murdoch’s four oldest children will have equal control of the 93-year-old’s media empire when he dies; however, Murdoch had sought to give Lachlan full control of the trust, and therefore its voting stakes in News Corporation and Fox Corp. A lawyer for Murdoch has flagged plans to appeal the ruling.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, FOX CORPORATION

China, Russia, Israel: Wong on affront foot

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Original article by Ben Packham, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 : 11-Dec-24

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has defended a controversial speech at the University of South Australia. Wong used the Hawke Lecture to contend that it is not anti-Semitic to expect Israel to comply with international law, in the same way that Russia and China are expected to do so with regard to Ukraine and the South China Sea. However, shadow home affairs minister James Paterson says Wong’s criticism of Israel is encouraging anti-Semitism and threatening the safety of Jewish Australians. Meanwhile, Simone Abel from the Executive Council of Australian Jewry has accused the government of double standards regarding foreign policy towards Israel.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, EXECUTIVE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIAN JEWRY

RBA lifts Labor hopes of rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 11-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA’s monetary policy statement has notably omitted a line which stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out". RBA governor Michele Bullock has in turn noted that the latest wages and economic growth data has given the board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining; however, she cautioned that the board is of the view that underlying price pressures are still too high. Bond traders have now priced in a 62 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut at the RBA’s next board meeting in February; a second rate cut has been widely tipped for April, with the federal election set to be held no later than mid-May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Antisemitism changing nation, Albanese told

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 11-Dec-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has told the Jewish community that the federal government will provide financial support to rebuild the Adass Israel synagogue. Albanese visited the site on Tuesday, spending 45 minutes inspecting the remains of the building and a similar amount of time in a private meeting with senior members of the Adass Israel community. Benjamin Klein, a member of the synagogue’s board, says community leaders told Albanese that the surge in anti-Semitism has "changed the fabric of Australia", and that the government must take action to address it. Police are searching for three suspects in the firebombing, which has been designated a terrorist attack.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Unions growing under Labor after decade of decline

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 10-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s unions have recorded membership growth for the first time since 2011. Some 13 per cent of workers are now union members, compared with a record low of 12.5 per cent in 2022. The figures show that more than 1.6 million workers were members of a union in their main job in August, an increase of nearly 200,000 over the last two years. ACTU president Michele O’Neil has attributed the growth in union membership to the collective bargaining provisions of the federal government’s industrial relations reforms.

CORPORATES
ACTU, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA getting it wrong on jobs

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank convened for its final board meeting for 2024 on Monday, with ACTU secretary Sally McManus being joined by union members outside its Sydney headquarters as she called on the RBA to cut interest rates. Melbourne University economics professor Jeff Borland, who is considered Australia’s leading labor market expert, contends the Australian jobs market is not as strong as the RBA thinks, and that its true state does not justify the RBA keeping the cash rate at 4.35 per cent; the RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE