Author: roymorgansocial

Risk of mortgage stress eases for fourth straight month – the lowest for over 18 months since February 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,487,000 mortgage holders (26.2%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in October 2024. This is down 2.1% points since September, and 4.1% lower than the June figures prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts that increased household income for Australians. Modelling by Roy Morgan shows that the number of mortgages ‘At Risk’ will fall by 12,000 in December to 1,475,000 (25.9% of mortgage holders) if the Reserve Bank drops interest rates by 0.25% to 4.10% at its last board meeting for the year. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 680,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increase. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 928,000 (16.7% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation pain for households will linger well beyond 2026

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 5 : 27-Nov-24

Analysis of the Reserve Bank’s forecasts in its statement on monetary policy for November suggests that real household income per capita will rise by 1.3 per cent in the current quarter, followed by growth of 1.2 per cent in 2025 and 1.1 per cent in 2026. However, Australians’ living standards are still set to be 4.4 per cent lower at the end of 2026 than at the time of the May 2022 federal election; this is despite the central bank factoring in a fall in the cash rate from 4.35 per cent at present to 3.5 per cent over the next two years. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said Australians are paying the price for Labor’s economic mismanagement, and they will continue to live with the damage of the inflation crisis well into the late 2020s.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 85.7 in late November – but now six weeks above 85

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 85.7 in the week to 24 November; it has nevertheless stayed above the mark of 85 for a sixth consecutive week for the first time since June 2022. Consumer Confidence is now 9 points above the same week a year ago (76.7), and 3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.7. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with small increases in NSW and SA more than offset by decreases in Victoria, Queensland, and WA. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Anglo deal shores up its BHP defences

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 27-Nov-24

Anglo American’s deal to sell its coking coal mines in Queensland will boost its balance sheet ahead of the looming expiry of the embargo on a new takeover bid from BHP. Peabody Energy will pay $US3.8bn ($5.8bn) for the coal assets, well above market expectations that the mines would fetch around $US2.8bn. RBC Capital analyst Marina Calero says the deal will also increase shareholders’ confidence that Anglo American will be able to carry out its restructuring plan. BHP will be free to make a fresh bid for Anglo American from late November, under the UK’s takeover laws.

CORPORATES
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Trade war 2.0: Trump’s China tariff bombshell sends global shockwaves

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Original article by Will Glasgow, Joe Kelly, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 27-Nov-24

Professor Warwick McKibbin from the Australian National University says the new tariff regime announced by US president-elected Donald Trump represents a "dangerous step for global trade". Trump has advised via social media that one of his priorities will be signing an executive order to impose a new tariff of 10 per cent on all Chinese imports, and a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. Trump contends that the three nations are not doing enough to stop the importation of a synthetic drug called fentanyl into the US. The move is also aimed at curbing illegal immigration into the US. Steven Hamilton from George Washington University says Trump appears to be using tariffs as a ‘bargaining chip’ to extract concessions from other countries.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

ANZ had early warning of probe

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 27-Nov-24

The ANZ Bank is continuing to attract scrutiny over its role in a $14 billion government bond placement in April 2023. The bank formally informed shareholders in mid-May 2024 that it is being investigated by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission with regard to the bond placement. ASIC had served ANZ with a formal notice of investigation in February, but sources have indicated that the bank’s senior management had been aware of the regulator’s interest in the bond deal in August 2023, when it requested access to documents concerning ANZ’s role in the transaction.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

14.8 million Australians read magazines in print or online

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-24

The Roy Morgan Australian Readership report for the 12 months to September 2024 shows that 11.5 million Australians aged 14+ (51.1%) now read print magazines. This market broadens to 14.8 million Australians aged 14+ (65.6%) who read magazines in print or online either via the web or an app. There were widespread increases in print readership over the last year with six magazine categories increasing their readership. The most widely read magazine category continues to be Food & Entertainment, with a massive readership of 7,408,000, over 3 million ahead of any other magazine category and reaching nearly a third of the population. Better Homes & Gardens is still Australia’s most widely read paid magazine, with print readership of 1,825,000 (up 1.1 per cent from a year ago), ahead of The Australian Women’s Weekly on 1.2 million. These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of 64,871 Australians aged 14+ in the 12 months to September 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Upgraders the dominant force in housing market as prices slow

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 27-Nov-24

Research by CBRE shows that 64 per cent of Australian home buyers in the September quarter were existing home owners who were upgrading to a larger or more expensive dwelling. This compares with 59 per cent in the March quarter. In contrast, the proportion of first-home buyers fell from 66 per cent in the March quarter to 62 per cent. Sameer Chopra from CBRE says upgraders are likely to be taking advantage of factors such as falling house prices in the major capital cities, slowing price growth in medium-sized cities and a strong jobs market. CBRE’s findings are based on a survey of residential property valuers.

CORPORATES
CBRE PTY LTD

Peabody picks up Anglo coal assets for $5.8bn as BHP circles

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Original article by Bridget Carter
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 26-Nov-24

Anglo American has agreed to sell its five metallurgical coal mines in Queensland to US-based Peabody Energy for up to $US3.8bn ($5.8bn). The deal includes a contingent cash consideration of $US450m that is linked to the reopening of the Grosvenor mine, where production was halted by an underground fire in June. Stanmore Resources and Yancoal Australia also submitted bids for Anglo’s coal assets. The sale of the Queensland mines is part of Anglo’s strategy to focus on its copper, iron ore and crop nutrient operations. Meanwhile, BHP will be free to make a new bid for Anglo later this week, when a six-month embargo under the UK’s takeover laws expires.

CORPORATES
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SMR, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

‘Uninvestable’: Business blasts Victoria’s financial state

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Original article by Gus McCubbing, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 26-Nov-24

Victoria’s auditor-general warned on Friday that the state’s finances were not sustainable, with gross state debt expected to pass $228 billion by 2028. With a review by economist Saul Eslake finding that Victoria has gone from being the richest and most powerful state over much of the past century to being one of the poorest against a range of indicators, including household income, CSL chair Brian McNamee says a number of leading fund managers have told him that Victoria is currently uninvestable. Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett, who has a nine-point plan to turn Victoria’s finances around, says the Andrews-Allan Labor government is the worst the state has ever had to endure in economic terms.

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY