K62 Finance

Investors caution markets still too bullish on rates

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 24-Jan-24

Financial markets have scaled back their expectations of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2024; the RBA is now expected to reduce the cash rate by 37 basis points over the year, compared with expectations of a 55 basis point cut earlier in January. Tim Van Klaveren of UBS expects two rate cuts in 2024, while Matt Wacher from Morningstar anticipates three rate cuts in response to an economy that he expects to slow quickly. Meanwhile, financial markets have now fully priced in a US interest rate cut in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD

Economists warn of unintended fallout from RBA overhaul

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 17-Jan-24

Economists polled by The Australian Financial Review have expressed some reservations with regard to how the Reserve Bank will communicate monetary policy decisions under its new structure. The RBA’s mew Monetary Policy Board will be responsible for setting interest rates; it will publish details of how the board voted on rate decisions, but not the voting records of each board member. Economists contend amongst other things that not diclosing these votes could potentially give rise to speculation of dissension amongst board members when this does not exist.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Mortgage stress continued to ease in November despite the RBA raising interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,490,000 mortgage holders (29.9%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to November 2023. This period included only one interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for November represented a second straight monthly decrease as mortgage stress continued to ease due to a combination of factors – including increased household incomes, increased employment and reduced amounts borrowed and outstanding. This is the first time since January 2022 (before the RBA began raising interest rates) that mortgage stress has decreased for two straight months. However, despite the easing in mortgage stress this was only the sixth time in the history of the index that over 1.45 million mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 683,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 934,000 (19.3% of mortgage holders) which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.2%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bullock: banks should bear more of cost of moving cash

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 13-Dec-23

Australia’s major banks will hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday to discuss the future of cash distribution, amid warnings from cash transport firm Armaguard that the growing shift to digital payments may threaten the company’s viability. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock says there are merits to exploring a co-operative model for cash distribution, which would require authorisation from the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission. Bullock added that the central bank places a high priority on the community continuing to have reasonable access to cash withdrawal and deposit services.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ARMAGUARD

ANZ-Suncorp deal no threat

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Original article by Glen Norris
The Australian – Page: 15 : 5-Dec-23

The ANZ Bank’s appeal against the blocking of its deal to buy Suncorp Bank continued before the Australian Competition Tribunal on Tuesday. Cameron Moore SC, who is representing Suncorp Group, contended that the $4.9bn deal would not undermine competition in the banking sector, as Suncorp Bank is a relatively small player that had until recently been losing market share in its home state of Queensland. He also argued that a merger between Suncorp Bank and Bendigo Bank would not make financial sense for shareholders of either company.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, SUNCORP BANK, AUSTRALIA. COMPETITION TRIBUNAL, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN

Westpac suffers online banking outage with customers shut out of accounts

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Original article by Martin Farrer
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 5-Dec-23

Westpac advised late on Monday evening that it was working to restore its mobile and online banking services following an outage that left customers unable to access their accounts. Westpac has attributed the outage which began at around 8pm to a ‘routine technology update’. Many people were unable to make payments via credit cards or mobile phone due to the outage, while others reported that they could log into Westpac’s platform but their accounts were missing. Some customers criticised Westpac for advising of the outage via social media rather than its website. Westpac had fully restored all affected services by 5.15am on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Mortgage stress eased in October before the RBA raised interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,514,000 mortgage holders (30.1%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to October 2023. This period included three RBA meetings at which interest rates were left unchanged and was before the increase on Melbourne Cup Day. The figure for October represented a slight decrease on a month earlier as mortgage stress eased due to a combination of factors, such as increased household incomes, increased employment and reduced amounts borrowed and outstanding. Despite the slight easing in mortgage stress, this was only the third time in the history of the index that over 1.5 million mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 707,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 967,000 (19.7%), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.1%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Over 1.57 million Australians are now At Risk of ‘mortgage stress’, representing 30.3% of mortgage holders

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Nov-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that a record high 1,573,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2023; this is 7,000 higher than in August. The period encompassed three RBA meetings at which interest rates were left unchanged. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 766,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. The number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ is now numbered at 1,043,000 (20.5%) which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 15 years of 15.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Economists warn Cup Day rate rise may not be last

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 1-Nov-23

The general consensus of economists polled by the Australian Financial Review is that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent on 7 November. Nine of the 35 economists expect the cash rate to peak at 4.6 per cent, implying that there will be at least one more rate rise beyond November. They include Challenger’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns, who was previously the central bank’s head of domestic markets. However, independent economist Stephen Koukoulas expects the cash rate to remain on hold for a fifth consecutive month in November.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF

Top economists see end to rate hikes, predict house price recovery

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Original article by Millie Muroi
The Age – Page: Online : 13-Sep-23

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s chief economist Stephen Halmarick says a falling inflation rate means that official interest rates have now most likely peaked. He expects consumer spending to begin to decline by the end of 2023, prompting the Reserve Bank to start easing monetary policy in 2024. Halmarick also forecasts that house prices will rise by seven per cent in 2023 and a further five per cent in 2024, citing factors such as rising migration levels and housing supply constraints. Besa Deda from Westpac also suggests that interest rates may have peaked, and she expects the cash rate to begin falling in the second half of 2024.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA