K62 Finance

CBA holds dividend as urgency fades

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 11-Feb-16

Commonwealth Bank shareholders will receive a 2015-16 interim dividend of $A1.98 per share, which equates to a payout ratio of around 70 per cent. The banking major has indicated that its full-year dividend payout will be 70-80 per cent of profits. Meanwhile, CEO Ian Narev says the bank is "very happy" with its current level of capital, and he expects the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to let banks increase their capital levels gradually. The Commonwealth Bank’s common equity tier 1 capital level is now 10.2 per cent, while APRA requires a minimum of eight per cent.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, NORDEA BANK AB, UBS AG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence stabilising for now at 111.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 0.2 per cent to 111.4 in the week ended 7 February 2016, breaking the declining trend in confidence seen over the previous four weeks. The recent weakness has left confidence below its long-run average levels. However, the latest result may suggest that concerns around financial market volatility have abated somewhat. The sub-index on "finances in the next 12 months" has fallen by 1.3 per cent, and the sub-index on "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has fallen by 1.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence on the crawl – down 1pt to 111.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by one per cent to 111.2 in the week ended 31 January 2016, and it has fallen by 4.4 per cent over the last four weeks. On average, confidence was 2.1 per cent lower in January compared with December. It is unusual for confidence to fall in January, and this is the first time since 2008 that the year has started on a pessimistic note. The sub-index on "financial situation compared to a year ago" has fallen by 2.9 per cent, although the sub-index on "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has risen by 2.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

NAB forced to delay Clydesdale float after ratings inquiry

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 3-Feb-16

Shares in National Australia Bank spin-off Clydesdale Bank were slated to list on the London Stock Exchange on 2 February 2016. However, NAB has postponed the float by 24 hours after an unnamed ratings agency sought information on Clydesdale’s deposit rating. The request could potentially result in Clydesdale’s credit rating being downgraded, although NAB has stressed that this would have no impact on the UK bank’s financial outlook or its cost of funding.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, MARTIN CURRIE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CLIME ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence continues to drift lower in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence fell by 3.9 points to 110.6 in January 2016, following a decline of 4.2 points in December and 0.6 points in November. The combined drop of 8.7 points (down 7.3 per cent) over the last three months is an indication that the initial increase in confidence following Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister has been outweighed by the negative local and international economic environment, which saw the ASX decline by 8.6 per cent in the first three weeks of January. Despite the negative trend in business confidence over the last three months, it is still 7.8 per cent above the level prior to the appointment of Turnbull. Business confidence is now below the five-year average of 116.8 and is a sign that confidence is very fragile and easily impacted by negative economic events.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down for the third week in a row to 112.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jan-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 0.9 per cent to 112.2 in the week ended 24 January 2016, and is now down 3.6 per cent over the past three weeks. Consumer confidence is now below its long-run average for the first time in almost four months. The recent falls are largely a reflection of ongoing global concerns and financial market volatility. The sub-index on "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has fallen by 13.5 per cent since early December, while the sub-index on "time to buy a major household item" has fallen by 7.9 per cent over the past three weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

NAB shareholders back Clydesdale spin-off

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Original article by Sally Rose, Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 28-Jan-16

National Australia Bank (NAB) will proceed with plans to demerge its Clydesdale Bank subsidiary in the UK, after 98 per cent of shareholders voted in favour of the deal. NAB shareholders will receive 75 per cent of Clydesdale’s shares, with the balance to be offered to institutional investors. However, the latter component of the transaction may be delayed if NAB fails to obtain a satisfactory price for the stock. NAB chairman Ken Henry says the bank’s dividend will not be affected by the sale of Clydesdale.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Rate cut in near future seen as unlikely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Jan-16

The general consensus of Australian economists is that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged in February 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP is the only economist out of 14 who believes that recent financial market volatility could result in an interest rate cut. He adds that the upcoming release of inflation data for the December 2015 quarter is likely to be the deciding factor. Meanwhile, the ANZ Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan expects the cash rate to be cut in May and August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, BANK OF CANADA, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down again to 113.2 (down 0.9pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jan-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 0.8 per cent to 113.2 in the week ended 17 January 2016, following a 1.9 per cent fall in the previous week. Further losses on the sharemarket amid ongoing concerns about China’s economic growth prospects are likely to have weighed on consumer confidence. The sub-index on the "economic outlook in the next 12 months" fell by 7.5 per cent, and it is now is now at its lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the sub-index on "finances compared to a year ago" rose by 8.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ratings agency predicts weaker bank profit growth in 2016

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 20-Jan-16

Fitch Ratings warns that Australian banks are likely to face lower growth in earnings in 2016, citing factors such as a rise in bad loans, an increase in the cost of funding and stronger competition in the sector. However, the ratings agency notes that capital raisings in 2015 mean the four major banks are well-placed to handle any increase in bad loans.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA