K62 Finance

Gary Morgan – Business confidence surveys and selective reporting by the Australian media

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Nov-15

It is impossible to stop "organisations" conducting "questionable" polls – sometimes ill-conceived and too often completely self-serving or even mischievous polls. However, it is a disgrace when Australia’s national news services "selectively report" only such polls. Australia’s media has a critical role to play in keeping the Australian people informed. Australia’s major media is concentrated and controlled by too few – probably soon to be fewer! This makes the ethics of journalists and media owners even more important. Good governance dictates journalists must be briefed to report all facts honestly – not report "selectively" to support their own opinion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business owners, Professionals and Managers swing decisively to new Turnbull Government; Business Confidence up under Malcolm Turnbull

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Original article by Michele Levine, Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Nov-15

Business owners, Professionals and Managers have swung decisively behind the Malcolm Turnbull Government, with the L-NP vote now 61.5% (up 12.5 per cent from pre-Turnbull), compared with 38.5 per cent for the ALP (down 12.5 per cent). Confidence for this group of Business owners, Professionals and Managers has increased to 118.6 (up 5.2pts from pre-Turnbull), according to a special analysis of business people using data from Roy Morgan Single Source. In addition, the Roy Morgan survey of businesses shows that real Business Confidence has increased from 102.6 in August 2015 to 119.3 in October – a strong increase following Turnbull’s ascension to the Prime Ministership. The website of "The Australian" has selectively reported the NAB Business Confidence poll, which claims that Business Confidence is down since Malcolm Turnbull took over leadership – this is far from the truth and only serves to destabilise the new Turnbull leadership or cast doubt on the Coalition tax reform discussions. For years the business community has been calling for tax reform and a complete review of the Australian taxation system. It is unbelievable and inconceivable to think business has now lost confidence because Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison are reviewing tax and "everything including GST is on the table". The NAB Business Confidence survey (sample and methodology undisclosed) reporting a drop in Business Confidence is either a "rogue poll", based on wrong questions or perhaps represents a very unrepresentative sample of the business community.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Remains Elevated at 116.6 (up 1.4pts)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 1.2 per cent to 116.6 in the week ended 8 November 2015, reaching its highest level since January 2014. Confidence has been on an upward trend over the past few weeks, mainly driven by an improvement in households’ outlook on the economy. This likely reflects the ongoing support for the Turnbull government in creating an improving narrative on the prospects for the Australian economy. The sub-index "economic outlook in the next year" rose by 2.8 per cent, and "economic outlook in the next five years" rose by 7.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ’s Smith is $10.8m a year man

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 10-Nov-15

The ANZ Bank’s 2015 annual report shows that CEO Mike Smith was paid a cash salary of $A3.3m in 2014-15, while bonuses and an incentives scheme lifted his total remuneration to $A10.8m. In contrast, Commonwealth Bank CEO Ian Narev was paid $A8.32m in total for 2014-15. ANZ CFO Shayne Elliott will succeed Smith at the beginning of 2016, and he is expected to be paid around $A6.5m in total in his first year as CEO.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence strengthens further in October to highest level for 2015

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Nov-15

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence rose by 5.8 per cent to 119.3 in October 2015, to the highest level since November 2014. This improvement in confidence was generally expected initially as a result of Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister, but it has strengthened further in October to be 16.3 per cent higher than prior to the leadership change in August. Roy Morgan Business Confidence is now above the five-year average of 116.9 and higher than 12 months ago (114.9). The increase in business confidence in October was a result of improvements across all components of the index. The strongest gains were in how businesses feel about the economy over the next 12 months and five years, and the encouragement this would give them to invest in their business, which is now at the highest level for the year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

$A tipped below US70c by year end

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 9-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was buying $US0.7032 on the weekend of 7-8 November 2015, after dipping to $US0.7023. The currency was sold down in response to stronger-than-forecast growth in US jobs during October, which has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the cash rate in December. Joseph Capurso of the Commonwealth Bank believes that the Australian dollar could be trading within the range of $US0.68 to $US0.69 by the end of 2015.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Westpac to ramp up home loans, transaction accounts

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 9-Nov-15

The head of Westpac’s consumer banking arm, George Frazis, says his division aims to increase its customer base by 850,000 in coming years. The ambitious target is part of plans by CEO Brian Hartzer to gain an additional one million customers across Westpac’s operations by 2017. Frazis has signalled a push to increase home loan and transaction account customers. Westpac also aims to reduce its cost-to-income ratio from 43.8 per cent in 2014 to less than 40 per cent within three years.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RAMS HOME LOANS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED

Analysts cool on CBA’s $2.4b profit

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 6-Nov-15

The Commonwealth Bank has posted an unaudited profit of $A2.4bn for the September 2015 quarter, which is four per cent higher year-on-year. The major bank’s trading update also indicated that its exposure to impaired and doubtful loans fell from $A6bn to $A5.5bn during the period, while deposits accounted for 63 per cent of its funding. The group’s tier one capital ratio rose to 9.8 per cent during the quarter following a $A5.1bn equity raising.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Consolidates

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 1.6 per cent to 115.2 in the week ended 1 November 2015. Despite recent moves by the big four banks to raise variable mortgage rates, this week’s result confirms that overall consumer confidence remains on an upward trend, most likely reflecting the increased faith in the new Prime Minister. The four-week moving average is now at its highest level since February 2014. The subindex "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has risen by 5.1 per cent, and is now 25 per cent higher than prior to the change in Prime Ministership.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Dollar jumps as RBA wrong-foots punters with cash rate

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 4-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was fetching $US0.7199 late in trading on 3 November 2015. The currency reached an intra-day high of $US0.7209 after the Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold. Central bank governor Glenn Stevens indicated that there may be potential for further rate cuts given the low inflation rate. Felicity Emmett of the ANZ Bank expects the cash rate to be left on hold again in December before being reduced in February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JAMIESONCOOTEBONDS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD