K62 Finance

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence deteriorates – down to 112.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Dec-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 1.5 per cent to 112.8 in the week ended 29 November 2015, taking the cumulative fall over the last three weeks to 3.3 per cent. The four-week moving average remains elevated; however, it is now trending downwards – suggesting that confidence has turned. The sub-index for consumers’ finances compared with a year ago fell by 5.1 per cent, while the sub-index for economic conditions in the next 12 months fell by 3.4 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the continuing war in Syria and Iraq, and the threat of terrorism around the world, is having a clearly negative impact on Consumer Confidence and Australia’s economic fortunes. He adds that the best defence Australia can have against unrest overseas is for a strong economy in Australia – and this is why Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull must be prepared to make the tough decisions now to give Australia the best chance of strong economic growth, and continuing jobs growth, over the years ahead.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Westpac under fire over pay

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Original article by Adele Ferguson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 30-Nov-15

Westpac has refuted claims by Ownership Matters that its executive bonuses for 2013-14 and 2014-15 were inflated by a decision to exclude a software write-off from its cash earnings. Ownership Matters argues that Westpac’s ex-CEO Gail Kelly and other senior executives would not have received bonuses if the $A354m software write-down had been included in the bank’s cash earnings. The firm has advised Westpac shareholders to vote against the bank’s remuneration report at its 2015 annual meeting.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, OWNERSHIP MATTERS PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence on the cusp at 114.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 1.2 per cent to 114.5 in the week ended 22 November 2015. However, the four-week moving average continues to move higher, a trend that began when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The sub-index for consumers’ future finances fell by 4.7 per cent, although the sub-index for economic conditions in the short-term rose by 0.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

US dollar bull run not over as world monetary policy splits

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 25-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was buying around $US0.72 late in trading on 24 November 2015, after reaching an intra-day low of $US0.7159 in the previous session. PIMCO portfolio manager Luke Spajic anticipates further support for the US dollar in the current monetary policy environment, with the Federal Reserve poised to increase interest rates and many other central banks likely to reduce interest rates. There is growing expectation that US interest rates will rise in December.

CORPORATES
PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Fixed rates fall as banks chase loans

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 23-Nov-15

Data from RateCity shows that 11 Australian mortgage lenders have reduced their three-year fixed interest rates since early November 2015. Peter Arnold of RateCity notes that the majority of these lenders have passed on interest rate cuts to both owner-occupiers and property investors. Meanwhile, Jessica Darnbrough of Mortgage Choice says the number of customers opting for a fixed-interest loan fell to a four-year low of 13.9 per cent in October.

CORPORATES
RATECITY PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RP DATA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 115.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Nov-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 0.6 per cent to 115.9 in the week ended 15 November 2015. This follows confidence reaching the highest level in almost two years in the previous week, while the four-week moving average continues to trend higher. The fall in confidence was mainly attributed to consumers’ views towards the economic outlook. The sub-index "economic conditions in the next 12 months" was down 3.7 per cent, and "economic conditions in the next five years" was down 2.4 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says consumer confidence remains virtually unchanged, and all indicators of general confidence in Australia – including ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Confidence and the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – have improved substantially over the past two months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

$A likely to dip into the 50c range, says Macro Currency

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Nov-15

Mark Farrington of Macro Currency Group says the Australian dollar remains overvalued, despite its fall in recent months. He estimates that the currency needs to fall by another 10 per cent to the $US0.50 range as the economy rebalances. Meanwhile, Farrington expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate another two times in the current monetary policy easing cycle, adding that the first cut could be in the June 2016 quarter.

CORPORATES
MACRO CURRENCY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Westpac’s Gail Kelly gets $11m in final year

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 12-Nov-15

Westpac’s 2015 annual report shows that former CEO Gail Kelly received $A11.76 million for her last four months at the helm of the bank. This figure comprises $A2.25 million in cash in the year to September 2015 and $A9.51 million in performance share options awarded in prior years. Kelly retired in February 2015.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Gary Morgan – Business confidence surveys and selective reporting by the Australian media

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Nov-15

It is impossible to stop "organisations" conducting "questionable" polls – sometimes ill-conceived and too often completely self-serving or even mischievous polls. However, it is a disgrace when Australia’s national news services "selectively report" only such polls. Australia’s media has a critical role to play in keeping the Australian people informed. Australia’s major media is concentrated and controlled by too few – probably soon to be fewer! This makes the ethics of journalists and media owners even more important. Good governance dictates journalists must be briefed to report all facts honestly – not report "selectively" to support their own opinion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business owners, Professionals and Managers swing decisively to new Turnbull Government; Business Confidence up under Malcolm Turnbull

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Original article by Michele Levine, Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Nov-15

Business owners, Professionals and Managers have swung decisively behind the Malcolm Turnbull Government, with the L-NP vote now 61.5% (up 12.5 per cent from pre-Turnbull), compared with 38.5 per cent for the ALP (down 12.5 per cent). Confidence for this group of Business owners, Professionals and Managers has increased to 118.6 (up 5.2pts from pre-Turnbull), according to a special analysis of business people using data from Roy Morgan Single Source. In addition, the Roy Morgan survey of businesses shows that real Business Confidence has increased from 102.6 in August 2015 to 119.3 in October – a strong increase following Turnbull’s ascension to the Prime Ministership. The website of "The Australian" has selectively reported the NAB Business Confidence poll, which claims that Business Confidence is down since Malcolm Turnbull took over leadership – this is far from the truth and only serves to destabilise the new Turnbull leadership or cast doubt on the Coalition tax reform discussions. For years the business community has been calling for tax reform and a complete review of the Australian taxation system. It is unbelievable and inconceivable to think business has now lost confidence because Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison are reviewing tax and "everything including GST is on the table". The NAB Business Confidence survey (sample and methodology undisclosed) reporting a drop in Business Confidence is either a "rogue poll", based on wrong questions or perhaps represents a very unrepresentative sample of the business community.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY