K62 Finance

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: Turnbull turnaround boosts confidence to 114.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Sep-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 8.7 per cent to 114.5 in the week ended 20 September 2015. This more than retraces the 7.1 per cent decline over the previous two weeks and leaves confidence above long-run average levels. With no other substantive economic news or market movements to explain the outcome, the driver of the bounce was most likely optimism around the elevation of Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull to the Prime Ministership. The bounce in confidence was broad-based across the subindices. In particular, views on economic conditions over the next year jumped 25.8 per cent. Confidence in the economy over the next five years also gained a robust 13.4 per cent, but remains well below its long-run average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ACCC nods at a Macquarie-Esanda tilt

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 18-Sep-15

The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission has ruled that there would be little impact on competition if Macquarie Group acquires the Esanda dealer finance business from ANZ Bank. Macquarie is regarded as the frontrunner to buy the Esanda business, which is tipped to change hands for up to $A1.5bn. Analysts say Macquarie could opt for a capital raising to help finance the deal if its bid succeeds.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, TOYOTA FINANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NISSAN FINANCE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence on the Slide to 105.3 before Turnbull deposes Abbott as Prime Minister

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Sep-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 1.3 per cent to 105.3 in the week ended 13 September 2015. This follows a decline of 5.8 per cent in the previous week, and leaves confidence at its weakest level since July 2014. Confidence in the economic outlook continues to be much weaker than views on household finances. The subindex on "economic conditions in the next five years" fell by six per cent, following a 5.2 per cent fall in the previous week. This is the lowest level since the weekly survey began in October 2008. However, the subindex "finances compared to a year ago" rose by 1.6 per cent, and it is the only subindex to remain above its long-run average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

NAB intensifies pitch for Clydesdale float

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 24 : 16-Sep-15

National Australia Bank (NAB) CFO Craig Drummond has not ruled out a trade sale for the UK’s Clydesdale Bank if a suitable offer is made, but he says a demerger and partial IPO remains the preferred option. NAB shareholders will be offered up to 80 per cent of shares in Clydesdale if the previously outlined plan proceeds. Clydesdale CEO David Duffy is confident that so-called "challenger banks" such as Clydesdale can compete with the major UK banks, particularly in sectors such as retail banking and retail and lending to small business.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, BANCO SABADELL, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CBA EQUITIES LIMITED

Macquarie poised for record $2b annual profit

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 15-Sep-15

Australian-listed Macquarie Group has advised that its 2015-16 interim profit will be 40 per cent higher than the $A678m result for the previous corresponding period. This suggests that Macquarie’s profit for the half-year to 30 September 2015 will be around $A949m. Macquarie has indicated that its profit for the second half will be similar to the first half, which means its full-year result could be around $A1.9bn. Meanwhile, the group has made a binding offer to acquire the Esanda dealer finance business from the ANZ Bank.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ESANDA FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED, MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, CLSA CAPITAL PARTNERS, WHITE FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TRANSGRID, LONDON CITY AIRPORT

More evidence needed to charge banks

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 15-Sep-15

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has found no evidence of misconduct by banks that would warrant legal action. The corporate regulator wrote in a submission to an inquiry into the banks’ business customer defaults that it had received 61 complaints about bank behaviour in commercial finance since mid-2010. These complaints constituted less than one per cent of the total complaints received about credit.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BANK OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HBOS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Spanish ‘interest’ won’t derail NAB Clydesdale float

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Original article by James Chessell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 11-Sep-15

There is speculation that Spain-based Sabadell may be a potential buyer of the UK’s Clydesdale Bank, which is being sold by National Australia Bank (NAB). The Spanish bank has previously paid Stg1.7bn for TSB Bank. NAB plans to offload Clydesdale via an IPO and the sale of shares directly to its own stockholders, and NAB sources say this has not changed. CEO Andrew Thorburn indicated in August 2015 that investors would be updated on the sale process in October.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, YORKSHIRE BANK PLC, BANCO SABADELL, TSB BANK LIMITED, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED

Citi says 55pc chance of global recession

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 11-Sep-15

A new report from Citigroup’s chief economist Willem Buiter has raised the prospect of an emerging market-driven global recession. Buiter rates the chances of a global recession in the next two years at 55 per cent, warning that if the Chinese economy goes into recession it will have a flow-on effect on other emerging market economies. He adds that the limited scope for further interest rate cuts in developed economies may require central banks to consider more stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

Fed urged to avoid panic with rate hike

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 10-Sep-15

The US Federal Reserve is not expected to lift the cash rate in September 2015, with financial markets pricing in a 28 per cent chance. Kaushik Basu, chief economist at the World Bank, has expressed concern that emerging markets in particular are likely to experience an increase in volatility if the US tightens monetary policy.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WORLD BANK, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT

$A overshoots as iron ore export volumes up again

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 10-Sep-15

The Australian dollar is trading at around $US0.70, having recently fallen to $US0.6896. However, Annette Beacher of TD Securities argues that the rebound in the iron ore price means the currency should be trading at the $US0.76 level. Meanwhile, Beacher says the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain the cash rate at two per cent in the wake of the currency’s recent downturn.

CORPORATES
TD SECURITIES, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GROUP OF TEN (G-10)