K62 Finance

Economists stumped by RBA’s moves

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 9-Apr-15

None of the economists polled by Bloomberg News have been accurate in their forecasts for the monetary policy decisions of all three Reserve Bank of Australia board meetings so far in 2015. Several economists have, however, successfully predicted the outcome of two interest rate decisions, while five have failed to predict any. Meanwhile, the financial market’s forecasts have been right on one occasion in 2015

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, BT FINANCIAL GROUP PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, TD SECURITIES, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF ENGLAND, LABOUR PARTY (GREAT BRITAIN)

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: Bumpy Ride for Confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by 2.3 per cent to 109.7 in the week ended 5 April 2015, its lowest level in almost eight months. The weakness was broadly based, with four out of the five sub-indices declining. The sub-index for confidence in the economic outlook over the next year fell by 2.9 per cent, while confidence in the economic outlook over the next five years fell by 1.3 per cent

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA baulks at 2pc cash rate, for now

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Apr-15

The Australian dollar rallied to $US0.7690 on 7 April 2015, after the Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold at 2.25 per cent. There was widespread expectation among financial market watchers that the central bank would reduce the cash rate, but they have priced in a 76 per cent chance of a rate cut in May. Vimal Gor of BT Investment Management and Paul Dale of Capital Economics both believe that the Reserve Bank missed a chance to put downward pressure on the dollar

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JAMIESONCOOTEBONDS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Pre-emptive $A spike attracts ASIC interest

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 8-Apr-15

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission will investigate further unusual currency trading activity on 7 April 2015. The Australian dollar again rose suddenly shortly before the Reserve Bank revealed that it had left the cash rate on hold. The corporate regulator is looking into similar trading activity in the previous two months. The dollar was buying $US0.7699 late in trading, and Richard Yetsenga of the ANZ Bank expects it to remain at around this level in the near-term

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF INDIA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Shares to open lower as RBA considers cut

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 7-Apr-15

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to shed 0.15 per cent when trading resumes on 7 April 2015. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.4 per cent during the previous week. The Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting will be a focus for investors, with Credit Suisse data showing that financial markets have priced in a 75 per cent chance of a rate cut. Retail sales, construction and mortgage lending data will also be released in coming days

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, SOCIETE GENERALE, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

CBA customers face deposit tax hit

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Original article by James Eyers, Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 2-Apr-15

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has expressed its support for the financial system inquiry’s recommendation to introduce a tax on deposits to cover the costs of any bank collapse. The proposed tax would amount to $A500 million a year in total for the sector. In a submission to Treasury in response to the inquiry’s recommendations, CBA stated that the tax might be passed on to its customers

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CUSTOMER OWNED BANKING ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Small business warning

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 1-Apr-15

The Australian Bankers’ Association’s submission on the financial system inquiry has broadly supported the recommendations on increased capital requirements for the nation’s banks. However, it has questioned the need for local banks to be in the top quartile of banks globally. The submission also raises concerns over the proposal for credit contracts to be covered by laws on unfair contracts, noting the potential impact on loans to small businesses

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

MYOB owner dismisses criticism from Xero

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Original article by Shaun Drummond, Sarah Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 17 : 1-Apr-15

US-based private equity firm Bain Capital will retain a controlling stake in MYOB when the software group debuts on the Australian sharemarket on 4 May 2015. The IPO is seeking to raise about $A830m, and shares in MYOB will be priced between $A3 and $A4 apiece. Rival accounting software group Xero has questioned MYOB’s claims about the size of its customer base

CORPORATES
MYOB TECHNOLOGY PTY LTD, BAIN CAPITAL LLC, XERO LIMITED – ASX XRO, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARCHER CAPITAL PTY LTD, HARBOURVEST PARTNERS

Iron ore slump forces RBA to mull April cut

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Apr-15

The price of iron ore shed 16 per cent during March 2015, and it is now trading below $US53 per tonne. The slump has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate on 7 April, and financial markets have priced in a 68 per cent chance of a cut. Kieran Davies of Barclays is among the economists who expect a rate cut in April, although Westpac’s Bill Evans believes that the cash rate may be left on hold until May

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, RATECITY PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, TD SECURITIES

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: Low Confidence Needs a Boost

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Mar-15

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 0.8 per cent to 112.3 in the week ended 29 March 2015, its third consecutive rise. While consumer confidence is now 2.3 per cent off its February lows, it remains below its long-run average. The sub-index for confidence in the economic outlook over the next year rose by one per cent, while confidence in the economic outlook over the next five years rose by 3.1 per cent. These indices are now 4.6 per cent and 4.5 per cent higher respectively since the February interest rate cut

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA