K62 Finance

Gillespie predicts RBA will trim rates as house prices fall

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 21-Feb-19

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital estimates that there is a 30 per chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in April. In contrast, financial markets are currently pricing in a six per cent chance of a rate cut. Gillespie expects a further downturn in house prices in the near-term, which may prompt the central bank to ease monetary policy prior to the federal election. The RBA adopted a more dovish tone on interest rates at its February meeting, after signalling in December that rates were more likely to go up than down.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

NAB CEO forfeits $22m as push for changing of the guard speeds up

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 22 : 21-Feb-19

National Australia Bank has revealed that former CEO Andrew Thorburn will receive a ‘golden handshake’ of $1m. However, he will forgo about $22m in performance rights following his resignation. Thorburn was paid about $4m in 2018, but acting CEO Phil Chronican will be paid just $150,000 a month while he is in the role. Meanwhile, NAB chairman Ken Henry will have no role in selecting a permanent successor to Thorburn, while Angus Gluskie of White Funds Management has urged NAB to choose a new CEO within six months.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WHITE FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN COUNCIL OF SUPERANNUATION INVESTORS INCORPORATED

David Morgan reveals failed Westpac-CBA mega-merger

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Original article by Tony Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 20-Feb-19

The official biography of former Westpac CEO David Morgan outlines the bank’s proposed merger with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in 1989, when he was the head of institutional banking at Westpac. The merger ultimately failed to proceed due to disagreement over leadership of the new entity. Westpac CEO Bob Joss was to have been overlooked in favour of CBA CEO David Murray, with Joss to be given the role of vice-chairman in charge of restructuring. CBA directors were also against Morgan and Westpac CFO Pat Handley joining the board of the combined group.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BT FINANCIAL GROUP PTY LTD, DBS BANK LIMITED, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ACTU, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

House price falls key caveat for Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Feb-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank believes that the cases for an increase or a reduction in the cash rate are "more evenly balanced" now than they had been over the last year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank had stated in December that a rate rise is more likely. The central bank has also noted that dwelling investment is likely to decline more sharply than previously anticipated, and it has given indications that the outlook for house prices may influence the timing of the next change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Westpac cops flak after flat quarterly post

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 19-Feb-19

Westpac has reported a statutory net profit of $1.95bn and a cash profit of $2.04bn for the December 2018 quarter. Both figures were largely unchanged from the two previous quarters. Westpac has also advised that its net interest margin rose during the quarter, while there was an increase in both secured and unsecured mortgage delinquencies. Meanwhile, the Australian Securities & Investments Commission will appeal a Federal Court ruling that a marketing campaign by Westpac’s BT arm between 2014 and 2016 did not breach its financial services licence.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, BT FINANCIAL GROUP PTY LTD, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

I’ll prove the royal commission wrong, Henry vows

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Original article by John Durie
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 15-Feb-19

National Australia Bank is to follow the lead of Suncorp and set up a board committee that focuses on customers. NAB chairman Ken Henry says he did not intend to appear arrogant when he gave evidence at the royal commission. Henry says he feels that NAB is on the right path to restoring its tainted reputation, and that he intends to prove commissioner Kenneth Hayne wrong. Henry will step down when a replacement for CEO Andrew Thorburn is appointed.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

HSBC warns of dollar drop to US66c amid challenges

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 15-Feb-19

The Australian dollar is currently trading at around $US0.70, but HSBC says the latest economic data means it is unlikely to rise above this level. HSBC is particularly bearish about the outlook for the dollar, forecasting that it will test the $US0.66 level by the end of 2019. The Commonwealth Bank in turn has scaled back its year-end forecast for the currency from $US0.75 to $US0.72, citing factors such as the outlook for both global growth and the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Reforms ‘won’t be easy’, says APRA

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 21 : 14-Feb-19

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has defended its track record for overseeing the financial services sector, after APRA was criticised by the Hayne royal commission. Byres acknowledges that APRA must be more active in regulating the financial services sector, but he notes the challenges involved. He points out that APRA has a workforce of just 600 to supervise nearly 600 financial services providers, and only about half of its employees have a frontline role.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Macquarie chief backs loan brokers

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 13-Feb-19

Macquarie Group has affirmed that it expects profit growth of around 15 per cent for fiscal 2019, which suggests a full-year profit of at least $3bn. Meanwhile, Macquarie has more than $24bn worth of capital reserves at present, but CEO Shemara Wikramanayake has stressed the need for discipline with regard to risk management in the current environment. She has also expressed support for the mortgage broking industry in the wake of the financial services royal commission.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, CADENCE CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX CDT, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD, PROPERTY EXCHANGE AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Henry should not pick new NAB chief: Costello

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 12-Feb-19

Former federal treasurer Peter Costello suggests that regulators’ failure to prosecute misconduct in the financial services sector was due to reluctance to enforce the law rather that funding constraints. Costello also believes that it is inappropriate for National Australia Bank chairman Ken Henry to oversee the appointment of a new CEO. Henry will step down after a successor to Andrew Thorburn is recruited. Costello adds that bank directors and executives must prioritise compliance with the law in the wake of the financial services royal commission.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC