K62 Finance

Aussie tipped to dive 15pc this year

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 25-Jan-19

Capital Economics has downgraded its forecast for the Australian dollar in 2019. The firm has warned that the currency could test $US0.60 and remain at around this level in 2020. It had previously expected the currency to trade at about $US0.65 in 2019 and $US0.70 in the following year. Capital Economics is also bearish about the outlook for Australia’s key export commodities, iron ore and coal, while it expects official interest rate cuts in 2019.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Hacking risks higher under open banking

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 24-Jan-19

The Australian Banking Association has expressed concern that theft of personal data and email scams will become rife under the federal government’s open banking regime. Open banking is slated to begin on 1 February 2020, with a pilot program to commence in July 2019. The ABA’s submission to the Treasury’s draft report on open banking has called for the terms of reference for the pilot program to include an assessment of the potential privacy risks.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BANKING ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

CBA dividend cut on the cards as sell-offs create an earnings hole

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Original article by Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 22-Jan-19

Richard Wiles of Morgan Stanley suggests that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia may have to reduce its dividend payout ratio following a series of asset sales. CBA exited the life insurance sector in 2018 and secured a deal to sell Colonial First State Global Asset Management. It also proposed to spin-off its wealth management and mortgage broking operations. CBA paid a fully franked full-year dividend of $4.31 per share in fiscal 2018, an increase of $0.02.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED, COUNT FINANCIAL LIMITED, FINANCIAL WISDOM LIMITED, AUSSIE HOME LOANS LIMITED, COUNTPLUS LIMITED – ASX CUP, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, SOCIETYONE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Hayne’s grenade about to explode

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 15 & 23 : 18-Jan-19

The banking royal commission is due to present its final report to the federal government on 1 February, although it may be a day or two before the report is made public. There are a number of companies within the financial services sector whose share price could be impacted by the report’s content and recommendations, including AMP, IOOF and Mortgage Choice. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has hinted that the report will be released outside of stock exchange trading hours, while he says the commission’s initial report and hearings have shown that certain financial institutions have not done a good job when it comes to treating Australians honestly and fairly.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFG, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, GREAT BRITAIN. FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY

Banks plan exit from uninvestible Britain

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Hans van Leeuwen, Lisa Murray
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 16-Jan-19

The Commonwealth Bank has confirmed that it will establish a subsidiary in Amsterdam in response to continuing uncertainty surrounding Britain’s departure from the European Union. Other Australian banks with a presence in the UK are also looking to set up subsidiaries in other European countries to ensure that they can keep operating in the region. Mark Tinkler of AXA Investment Managers says the UK is largely "uninvestible" until the Brexit uncertainty is resolved. The British parliament will shortly vote on the Brexit deal of Prime Minister Theresa May.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS PTY LTD, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, GRANT SAMUEL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, GERMANY. FEDERAL FINANCIAL SUPERVISORY AUTHORITY (BAFIN), BANK OF ENGLAND. PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Savers under pressure as banks keep lowering rates

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 15-Jan-19

Analysis by Canstar shows that the average interest rate for a 12-month term deposit of $50,000 is now 2.55 per cent. Likewise, the average online savings interest rate is now just 1.35 per cent, compared with a peak of 7.3 per cent in 2008. In contrast, the cash rate is 1.5 per cent and Australia’s inflation rate is 1.9 per cent. Professor Richard Holden from the University of New South Wales warns that low interest rates will encourage more savers to seek higher-risk investment options such as shares.

CORPORATES
CANSTAR PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, SEMAPHORE PRIVATE PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, VIRGIN MONEY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ

Banks’ big legal year to get busier amid Hayne fallout

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Original article by Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 15-Jan-19

Westpac, National Australia Bank, AMP and IOOF Holdings are among the financial services groups that will be subject to legal action in 2019. Further legal action in the sector is expected in the wake of the financial services royal commission. Josh Mennen of law firm Maurice Blackburn has flagged mortgage lending practices as an area that could attract legal action. There are also indications that the Australian Securities & Investments Commission will be more willing to pursue legal action against banks in 2019.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, MAURICE BLACKBURN PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, GILBERT AND TOBIN LAWYERS, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, SUPREME COURT OF NEW SOUTH WALES, SWINBURNE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

Neobanks set for vault into future

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 11-Jan-19

Australia’s traditional banks are set to face growing competition from purely digital banks. The majority of banks that have entered the domestic market in the last decade have been foreign owned, but local ‘neobanks’ are changing the status quo. Volt will seek a full banking licence after gaining a restricted licence in May 2018, and the digital bank aims to have a $3m mortgage loan book within three years. Xinja also recently secured a restricted licence, while 86400 is set for a public launch within three months.

CORPORATES
VOLT BANK LIMITED, XINJA BANK LIMITED, 86400 PTY LTD, CUSCAL, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, UP, MONZO, REVOLUT, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BARCLAYS BANK PLC

Banks could face another tough year

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 10-Jan-19

The S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index shed 16.5 per cent in 2018, falling to its lowest level in five years. JCP Investment Partners is bearish about the outlook for the sector in 2019, warning that there is a 40-50 per cent chance of a banking crisis. However, Citigroup is more upbeat about the sector, and suggests that bank stocks may have been oversold.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX, JCP INVESTMENT PARTNERS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Satisfaction with banks remains positive and above the long term average

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-19

New results from Roy Morgan shows that customer satisfaction with Australia’s banks rose to 78.1% in the six months to November 2018, compared with 78.0% in the six months to October. This represents the first positive monthly move in satisfaction since prior to the start of the Finance Royal Commission in January. Satisfaction with banks remains above the long-term average of 74.3% calculated since 2001 and well up on the 58.7% in January 2001. Of the 10 largest consumer banks, ING with 88.8% satisfaction (up 3.6% points from January) and Bendigo Bank on 88.5% (up 0.1% point), were the only ones to show improvements in satisfaction during the Royal Commission. Westpac showed the biggest decline (down 5.5% points). The CBA retains its position of having the highest satisfaction among the big four with 76.7%, followed by NAB (74.6%), ANZ (74.3%) and Westpac (72.4%). Roy Morgan’s ‘Customer Satisfaction-Consumer Banking in Australia November Report’ is based on in-depth interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 consumers per annum in their homes, including over 4,000 bank customers per month.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED