K62 Finance

Risk of mortgage stress up in November after Reserve Bank decides not to cut interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jan-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,514,000 mortgage holders (26.8%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in November 2024. This represents a small increase on October but is 3.5% lower than the June figures prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts. Modelling by Roy Morgan shows that the number of mortgages ‘At Risk’ will fall by 26,000 in February 2025 to 11,488,000 (26.3% of mortgage holders) if the Reserve Bank drops interest rates to 4.10% at its first board meeting for the year. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 707,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 931,000 (16.9% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with more than 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Watchdog probes fee theft from dead people: ANZ in more strife

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, David Ross
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 18-Dec-24

The ANZ Bank’s board is likely to face more pressure to address compliance issues in the wake of allegations that fees were deducted from the accounts of customers who had died. Sources have indicated that the Australian Securities & Investments Commission is considering enforcement action against ANZ’s retail banking arm in response to the scandal. Helen Bird from Swinburne University says it is "surprising and disappointing" that scandals of this nature are still occurring more than five years after AMP came under scrutiny by the Hayne royal commission for engaging in this conduct.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, SWINBURNE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

Outsider to lead ANZ into new era

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Original article by Lucas Baird, James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 17 : 10-Dec-24

The ANZ Bank has advised that Nuno Matos will succeed CEO Shayne Elliott in mid-2025. Matos was previously the head of wealth management and personal banking at HSBC; he had also been considered for the role of CEO at Westpac, although the major bank opted to replace Peter King with internal candidate Anthony Miller. High Dive from Atlas Funds Managements says an external appointment will be able to help resolve cultural issues at ANZ. These include a bond trading scandal in its markets division, which effectively ruled out the head of institutional banking Mark Whelan as Elliott’s replacement.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC BANK PLC, ATLAS FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

ANZ’s Elliott to quit after nine years

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro, Kylar Loussikian
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 23 : 9-Dec-24

The ANZ Bank is tipped to appoint an external candidate to succeed CEO Shayne Elliott, who is expected to step down within days. ANZ’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank for $4.9bn and a bond trading scandal are likely to be the key legacies of Elliott’s tenure at the helm, which began in 2016. ANZ has also scaled back its Asian operations under Elliott, while it has ramped up investment in platforms such as ANZ Plus. Meanwhile, ANZ has delivered a total return to shareholders of 111 per cent since Elliott became CEO; this higher than Westpac’s return but much lower than that of the Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, SUNCORP BANK, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Aussie to drop materially in 2025, CBA warns

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Dec-24

The Commonwealth Bank is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar in 2025, amid fears of a trade war when US president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. The currency has fallen by 7.3 per cent since its most recent peak in September; it was fetching $US0.6470 on Tuesday, having reached a low of $US0.6432 last week. The Commonwealth Bank now expects the currency to fall to $US0.61 by September, but head of international equities Joseph Capurso says it could fall much further and faster if the trade war is more disruptive than anticipated.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Risk of mortgage stress eases for fourth straight month – the lowest for over 18 months since February 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,487,000 mortgage holders (26.2%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in October 2024. This is down 2.1% points since September, and 4.1% lower than the June figures prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts that increased household income for Australians. Modelling by Roy Morgan shows that the number of mortgages ‘At Risk’ will fall by 12,000 in December to 1,475,000 (25.9% of mortgage holders) if the Reserve Bank drops interest rates by 0.25% to 4.10% at its last board meeting for the year. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 680,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increase. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 928,000 (16.7% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ had early warning of probe

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 27-Nov-24

The ANZ Bank is continuing to attract scrutiny over its role in a $14 billion government bond placement in April 2023. The bank formally informed shareholders in mid-May 2024 that it is being investigated by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission with regard to the bond placement. ASIC had served ANZ with a formal notice of investigation in February, but sources have indicated that the bank’s senior management had been aware of the regulator’s interest in the bond deal in August 2023, when it requested access to documents concerning ANZ’s role in the transaction.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

NAB sued over hardship silence

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 15 & 19 : 19-Nov-24

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has launched legal action against the National Australia Bank, alleging it breached its requirements to fairly deal with customers suffering financial hardship. ASIC claims the NAB failed to respond to at least 345 customers seeking help from it over several years, including people suffering medical emergencies and people fleeing domestic violence. The case against the NAB follows a similar case against Westpac, and ASIC chair Joe Longo noted it was a "sign of the times", with tougher economic conditions resulting in the financial sector having to deal with a rise in hardship cases.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Young Australians cut back in cost-of-living crisis while older people shop more, data shows

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Original article by Catie McLeod
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 19-Nov-24

Analysis of the de-identified payments of about seven million Commonwealth Bank customers has revealed that 18- to 29-year-olds reduced their spending in the September quarter by 2% when compared to the same period in 2023. Spending by people aged between 30 and 39 was also down when compared to the same period in 2023, but spending by people aged 60 to 69 was up by 3.9% overall, while over-70s increased their spending by 7.7%. Wade Tubman from the CBA said the differences in spending between younger and older Australians was in contrast to the period immediately after the pandemic, when younger people were quicker to start going out and spent more than older people.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Risk of mortgage stress eases for third straight month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Oct-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,724,000 mortgage holders (28.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in September 2024. This represents a decrease of 0.2% points on the June figures, prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts that increased household income for millions of Australians. However, modelling by Roy Morgan shows that the number of mortgages ‘At Risk’ will increase to new record highs in November and December if the RBA raises interest rates by 25 basis points in both months. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 917,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,082,000 (18.3% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED