K62 Finance

Big four feel royal commission fallout

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 21 : 6-Nov-18

Australia’s four largest banks have reported a combined profit of $29.5bn for 2017-18, which is 5.5 per cent lower than previously. Tim Dring of Ernst & Young notes that the big four banks are facing challenges such as a slowing housing market, customer remediation costs and the impact of the financial services royal commission. However, he adds that the banks are also benefiting from a sharp fall in bad and doubtful debts.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ERNST AND YOUNG, SWITZER DIVIDEND GROWTH FUND (MANAGED FUND) – ASX SWT, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Reserve Bank board weigh up trifecta of risks for pre-Cup announcement

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Original article by Jessica Irvine
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 9 : 6-Nov-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent on 6 November. The central bank’s board will consider factors such as subdued wages growth, falling house prices and the high level of household debt in its monetary policy deliberations. The RBA has left the cash rate unchanged on Melbourne Cup Day every year since 2011, and the general consensus of economists is that rates will remain on hold in 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

NAB goes back to business for growth

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 2-Nov-18

National Australia Bank has posted cash earnings of $5.7bn for 2017-18, which is 14 per cent lower than previously. Cash earnings for the year to 30 September fell by two per cent when restructuring costs and customer remediation charges are excluded. NAB’s consumer and wealth management division’s earnings fell by 5.8 per cent, although its business and private banking division’s earnings rose 2.5 per cent. CEO Andrew Thorburn is upbeat about NAB’s earnings outlook.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MLC LIFETIME COMPANY LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

ANZ warns of more housing pain to come as profit sinks by 5pc

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 1-Nov-18

The ANZ Bank has posted a 2017-18 cash net profit of $6.49bn, which is five per cent lower than previously. Revenue for the year to 30 September declined by 1.4 per cent and ANZ’s net interest margin fell from 1.99 per cent to 1.87 per cent. CEO Shayne Elliott expects a further downturn in residential property prices, although he adds that the housing market’s fundamentals remain strong and a significant decline is unlikely. ANZ shareholders will receive a final dividend of $0.80 per share, and a full-year payout of $1.60.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CONCENTRATED LEADERS FUND LIMITED – ASX CLF, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Bad bankers to be named and shamed

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Original article by Jeff Whalley
Herald Sun – Page: 26 : 1-Nov-18

Australian Financial Complaints Authority CEO David Locke says the new agency expects to handle 55,000 complaints from consumers and small businesses in its first year. The AFCA has been formed via the merger of the Financial Ombudsman Service, the Superannuation Complaints Tribunal and the Credit & Investments Ombudsman. Locke says he will be more open to "naming and shaming" wrongdoers in the financial services industry than the FOS, noting that the latter was restricted to doing so in annual reports. The number of complaints received by the FOS rose by 10 per cent during its last year of operation.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL COMPLAINTS AUTHORITY, FINANCIAL OMBUDSMAN SERVICE LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. SUPERANNUATION COMPLAINTS TRIBUNAL, CREDIT AND INVESTMENTS OMBUDSMAN, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Mitsubishi in $4.1bn swoop for CBA arm

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 1-Nov-18

Brett Le Mesurier of Shaw & Partners expects the Commonwealth Bank of Australia to return capital to shareholders following a deal to sell its global asset management business. Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group will pay $4.1bn for Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which CBA had previously intended to demerge with its financial planning and mortgage assets. CBA expects to generate a post-tax gain of around $1.5bn from the sale of CFSGAM, while the bank’s common-equity tier-one capital will be boosted by 60 basis points.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, COUNT FINANCIAL LIMITED, FINANCIAL WISDOM LIMITED, AUSSIE HOME LOANS LIMITED, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, COUNTPLUS LIMITED – ASX CUP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MLC LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, SOCIETYONE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, MITSUBISHI UFJ TRUST AND BANKING INCORPORATION

RBA signals majors near unquestionably strong threshold

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 31-Oct-18

The Reserve Bank’s assistant governor Michele Bullock has praised the success of measures aimed at increasing the capital ratios of Australian banks. She notes that the four major banks are close to achieving the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s "unquestionably strong" capital benchmark. The banks’ capital ratios have increased from eight per cent to 12 per cent since 2013, when measured on a risk-weighted basis. However, Bullock has warned that APRA’s measures may be undermined if the non-bank financial sector’s market share increases.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS. BASEL COMMITTEE ON BANKING SUPERVISION, LEHMAN BROTHERS INCORPORATED, BANK OF ENGLAND

Chairmen in hot seat at commission

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 31-Oct-18

Remuneration in the banking sector will come under scrutiny during the financial services royal commission’s final round of public hearings, which commences on 19 November. There is also speculation that the chairs of some, if not all, of Australia’s four major banks will be asked to appear before the inquiry. The banks’ self-­assessments of their governance and culture are also expected to be on the royal commission’s agenda.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

The big banks facing a full-year profit hit

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 29-Oct-18

The consensus of analysts is that the ANZ Bank will post a cash profit of $6.2bn for the year to 30 September, down from $6.9bn previously. National Australia Bank’s full-year cash profit is tipped to fall from $6.64bn to $5.47bn, but Westpac’s cash profit is forecast to rise from $8.06bn previously to $8.13bn. Factors such as customer remediation costs and falling net interest margins are expected to weigh on the earnings of the three big banks. The Commonwealth Bank’s cash profit for the year to 30 June fell by 4.7 per cent to $9.4bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE

Aussie trades at fresh 32-month lows before recovering post US GDP – AFEX Monday Update – October 29, 2018

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The AUD/USD chart resembled a roller coaster on Friday.  Initially the bears were in control, pushing new lows, however the bulls later gained the ascendancy in the US session helping the Aussie dollar recover from its initial losses and close the week relatively unchanged.

Earlier in the day the AUD hit fresh multi-year lows as risk-aversion swamped the markets.  Equities reversed early morning gains and currencies were swept up in the carnage.

The moves caught many off-guard due to the lack of volatility throughout the week.  Up until 2pm AEST on Friday the weekly range was a mere 72-points and tracking a similar weekly trade range to the week prior, which was the lowest weekly range since 2002.

However the weight of equity market turbulence took its toll, alongside a weakening Chinese yuan that touched it’s lowest level since January 2017.  This saw the AUD sell-off quite suddenly, pushing through the weekly lows at 0.7052 and quickly surpassing the monthly lows at 0.7040, taking out traders stop loss positions which exemplified the moves and test towards psychological support at 0.7000.

But after the release of US 3rd quarter GDP on Friday night the US dollar sold off across the board, enabling the Aussie to bounce off the low of 0.7021 and push all the way back above 0.7100 before closing the session at 0.7087.

Whilst the headline release of 3.5% growth versus 3.3% expected was quite strong, delving into the data traders saw that a considerable portion of growth came from increased inventories whilst exports declined, and thus took the position that the number was overstated and at risk of declining at the next read, and sold their USD holdings accordingly.

Looking ahead and the economic calendar is quite a lot busier than last week.  On Monday the US releases core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, followed by consumer confidence data on Tuesday.  This leads into Australian inflation data on Wednesday which is quickly followed by Chinese manufacturing and services data.  Later that night the US will publish quarterly wage price data, followed by Australian retail sales figures on Friday ahead of US employment numbers.

Given how close traders came to testing 0.7000 on Friday, any negativity in domestic data or strength in US data would likely see that figure tested again.  If it does break through 0.7000 the next key level of technical support coincides with the August 2015 low at 0.6907.  Thereafter and the January 2016 low of 0.6827 is the next key figure to watch.  Whilst the trajectory is for a lower AUD, a break back above 0.7160 could help the Aussie recover in the short-term, although I imagine any rallies will be met by sellers who appear in control at this time.  A sustained move towards 0.7300 could change this view, but the likelihood of this happening looks quite remote given current price action and most market participants still favour a lower AUD from here.

James King
Head of FX Dealing, AFEX
www.afex.com