K62 Finance

Tension may turn RBA dovish

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Jul-18

JP Morgan expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent until at least June 2019. However, JPMorgan analysts have indicated that the US-China trade war could adversely affect global economic growth. A slowdown in global growth could in turn prompt a fall in the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which has traditionally influenced the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decisions.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED

Banks face $70b gap in funding

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Jul-18

Australia’s banks have experienced an increase in the gap between bank loans and deposits, according to National Australia Bank analysis. The funding gap rose from $A390 billion in the June 2017 quarter to $A457 million in the March 2018 quarter. The increase was attributed to households needing to access more of their savings and superannuation funds shifting their cash into other asset classes. Banks increased lending by 4.8 per cent in the 12 months to May, but deposits rose by just over two per cent.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, TD SECURITIES, THE ASSOCIATION OF SUPERANNUATION FUNDS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

APRA’s stress test draws fire on detail

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 20 : 13-Jul-18

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has released the results of its latest stress test of the banking sector. Commenting on the results, APRA chairman Wayne Byres said banks need to get improved data on customers’ overall debt position, as well as coming up with better crisis plans. Digital Finance Analytics’ Martin North is critical of the lack of public detail in the stress test, while APRA has also been criticised by some economists for its very optimistic view of the state of Australia’s $1.7 trillion mortgage sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LF ECONOMICS

Treasury boss warns against RBA rises

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 13-Jul-18

Economists have been urging the Reserve Bank of Australia to use the opportunity afforded to it by the nation’s strong economy to lift interest rates. They are concerned that failure to do so will leave it struggling to respond to any future financial crisis. RBA governor Philip Lowe has made it clear that rates will not go up until inflation rises, while outgoing Treasury secretary John Fraser has also warned against calls for rate increases.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

CBA accepts undertaking over BBSW

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 12-Jul-18

The Australian Securities & Investment Commission has advised that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has agreed to an enforceable undertaking with regard to the bank bill swap rate. CBA will pay $25m in fines and costs to settle ASIC’s case over allegations that the bank manipulated the BBSW. National Australia Bank and the ANZ Bank both agreed to pay $50m in total to settle their BBSW cases.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA

Rates must rise, APRA veteran says

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 11-Jul-18

Jeffrey Carmichael is the latest monetary policy expert to have urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin increasing official interest rates. The inaugural chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has warned of the economic risks of failing to begin raising the cash rate when other central banks are doing so. He has suggested that there may be a need for up to eight rate rises, but stresses the need to do so gradually. He adds that the domestic economy is strong enough to absorb rate rises without any significant risk. Carmichael worked at the RBA for two decades.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, PROMONTORY AUSTRALASIA PTY LTD

All eyes on big four as Macquarie lifts rates

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 10-Jul-18

There is growing speculation that Australia’s four major banks will increase their mortgage interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank. Macquarie is the latest bank to have advised of a rise in its variable rates for new and existing customers. Jonathan Mott of UBS says the large banks may opt to lift their rates in coming months to reflect the increase in their wholesale funding costs, although Sean Fenton of Tribeca Investment Partners notes that the major banks may be wary of attracting further political scrutiny at present. Some smaller lenders recently increased their mortgage rates.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, PEPPER GROUP LIMITED, AMP BANK LIMITED, SUNCORP BANK, AUSWIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX ABA, IMB LIMITED, ME BANK, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Susceptible $A tipped to fall to US70c

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 10-Jul-18

Some economists are bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar, which has traded at close to a 12-month low since mid-June. Stephen Roberts of Laminar Capital expects the currency to be trading at $US0.70 at the end of 2018, citing the prospect of a growing gap between official interest rates in Australia and the US. Elliot Clarke of Westpac in turn expects the Australian dollar to test the $US0.70 level in the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
LAMINAR CAPITAL, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Low rates may trigger shock

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 3 : 6-Jul-18

Keeping official interest rates low for too long could have dire consequences, according to the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on the Global Financial System. The committee warns that it could lead to a rise in inflation, which in turn would force central banks to hike up interest rates, resulting in a global recession. Under one scenario put forward by the committee, inflation could rise by two per cent, forcing central banks to lift short-term interest rates by 300 basis points. In Australia, this would result in economic growth falling to 0.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ bracing for fallout over AmBank stake as $4.5bn 1MDB scandal erupts

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Original article by Ben Butler
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 5-Jul-18

The ANZ Bank has a 24 per cent stake in Malaysia’s AmBank, which has become embroiled in the scandal over the siphoning of funds from the nation’s 1MDB sovereign wealth fund. Malaysia’s former prime minister Najib Razak is alleged to have channelled 1MDB’s funds into his AmBank account. Brian Johnson of CLSA says ANZ or its executives could potentially be drawn into the corruption scandal. CEO Shayne Elliott is among the ANZ executives who have previously served on AmBank’s board.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMBANK BERHAD, 1MDB, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BERNAMA, SARAWAK REPORT, SRC INTERNATIONAL, KUMPULAN WANG PERSARAAN (DIPERBADANKAN), UNITED STATES. DEPT OF JUSTICE, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED