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Big deals put bourse at risk of shrinking

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 29-Jan-26

MST analyst Hasan Tevfik says that several big merger proposals mean that the Australian sharemarket is risk of ‘de-equitising’ in 2026 . This occurs when the value of shares removed from the market via buybacks, takeovers and de-listings exceeds new capital raised by listed companies and via IPOs; this has not happened since 2005, when News Corporation moved its primary listing from the ASX to New York. BlueScope Steel and Qube Holdings are among the companies that are currently the subject of takeover bids, while Tevfik notes that the ASX’s equitisation would take a big hit if Rio Tinto acquires Glencore and opts to scrap its dual listing in Australia.

CORPORATES
MST MARQUEEBLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSLQUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUBRIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIOGLENCORE PLC

BHP closes in on CBA’s crown as ASX king

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 13-Jan-26

Shares in BHP have risen by 30 per cent in the last six months, lifting its market capitalisation to $236bn. The resources giant is now just 8.5 per cent shy of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s market cap of $258bn, and a continued strong run could see it reclaim the title of the ASX’s biggest company. CBA’s shares peaked at $192 in mid-2025; Peter Gardner from Plato Investment Management believes that CBA is still a bit overvalued at its current price of about $154 per share. Meanwhile, BHP has been buoyed by strong commodity prices, which has prompted investors to rebalance their portfolios in favour of mining companies rather than banks.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, PLATO INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Bankers hoping busy year will see M&A cash roll in

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 7-Jan-26

Data from Dealogic shows that $US92.8bn worth of mergers and acquisitions targeting Australian companies were announced during 2025; this eight per cent higher than in 2024, and the highest level of activity since calendar 2021. Australia-based companies in turn pursued $US11.82bn worth of deals offshore. Marissa Freund from Goldman Sachs and Tim Joyce from Macquarie Capital are amongst those who expect M&A activity to remain strong in 2026. Meanwhile, global M&A activity totalled $US5.1trn in 2025, which is 42 per cent higher year-on-year.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD

Buybacks boom but investors see a downside

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 24-Sep-25

Recent data from MST Marquee showed that a record 47 companies in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 have announced plans for share buybacks this year; this compares with just 10 in 2020. However, analysis shows that there has been a decline in the share prices of seven out of 12 companies that undertook buybacks in late 2024. Luke McMillan from Ophir Asset Management says buybacks can be a better option than dividends for returning excess cash to shareholders, given that they expect dividends to increase each year.

CORPORATES
MST MARQUEE, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Boards woo investors with ASX buybacks

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 20-Aug-25

Analysis by MST Marquee shows that most Australian-listed companies that announce buybacks tend to outperform the broader sharemarket by an average of 10 per cent in the following 12 months. Twelve listed companies have revealed plans to repurchase some $5bn worth of their shares so far in the current reporting season; this compares with the 10 companies that announced just $2.8bn worth of buybacks during the August 2024 reporting season. The growing trend towards buybacks has coincided with an overall decline in the dividend payouts of listed companies.

CORPORATES
MST MARQUEE

ASX rotation could see CBA investors jump on mining train

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 2-Jul-25

S&P/ASX 200 bank stocks gained 26 per cent during the 2024-25 financial year, while the resources sector fell eight per cent. However, some analysts believe that investors are set to shift from banks to resources stocks in 2025-26, amid speculation that the Commonwealth Bank’s outperformance will not be sustained. The stock gained 45 per cent in 2024-25, with its share of the benchmark index rising from nine per cent to nearly 12 per cent.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

ASX winners and losers for 2025 revealed

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 1-Jul-25

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rose 10.2 per cent in the 2024-25 financial year, posting its biggest annual gain since 2021. Ship builder Austal tops the list of best-performing stocks for 2024-25, rising by 152 per cent; it is followed by gold producers Regis Resources (up 150 per cent) and Genesis Minerals (145 per cent). Meanwhile, IDP Education recorded the biggest loss among the top-200 stocks, shedding 76 per cent; other major underperformers included Mineral Resources (down 60 per cent) and Pilbara Minerals (57 per cent). The ASX 200 ended the financial year at 8,542.3 points, and Shane Oliver from AMP says it could potentially rise to around the 8,700-point level by the end of 2025.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTAL LIMITED – ASX ASB, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED – ASX GMD, IDP EDUCATION LIMITED – ASX IEL, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Couples need $73,875 a year in retirement

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Original article by Anthony Keane
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 18-Jun-25

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia’s modelling suggests that a couple who own their home now requires annual income of to live comfortably in retirement. The figure for a single person who owns their home is $52,383. The analysis also shows that the cost of a comfortable retirement increased by 1.6 per cent in the year to March, compared with the inflation rate of 2.4 per cent. ASFA CEO Mary Delahunty says retirees are starting to benefit from a slowdown in inflation, although she notes that the prices of essentials are still rising.

CORPORATES
THE ASSOCIATION OF SUPERANNUATION FUNDS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

The stocks that have ripped during Trump’s trade war

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 8-May-25

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has gained 11.4 per cent since it entered correction territory in the days after the Trump administration unveiled its tarrifs regime on 2 April. Uranium producer Boss Energy is amongst the stocks that have posted strong gains since the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcement; it has risen by more than 47 per cent since the start of April, although the stock is still 30 per cent lower than a year ago. Other strong performers include Eagers Automotive (up 24.8 per cent since the start of April), NextDC (21.2 per cent), Pro Medicus (20.6 per cent) and Lynas Rare Earths (20.5 per cent).

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, BOSS ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BOE, EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED – ASX APE, NEXTDC LIMITED – ASX NXT, PRO MEDICUS LIMITED – ASX PME, LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED – ASX LYC

Investors pile into ASX amid Wall Street exodus

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 30-Apr-25

Australian-listed companies have benefited from a global shift of capital away from Wall Street in 2025, amid the turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies. Foreign investors owned a record 18 per cent of US stocks at the start of the year. However, Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign investors have sold $US60bn ($93.2bn) worth of US shares in recent weeks. Elise McKay from Pendal says this trend may have contributed to the S&P/ASX 20’s outperformance last week; it gained 2.5 per cent, while the benchmark ASX 200 rose by just 1.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, PENDAL GROUP LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 20 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX