K64 Auxiliary Finance and Insurance Services

Trade out, quality in as blue chips re-emerge

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 24-Nov-16

Australian-listed small-capitalisation stocks have outperformed the broader sharemarket over the last 18 months or so. However, this outperformance has been reversed in the last month, and particularly in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential election win. There has been renewed support for bank and resources stocks, due to factors such as a rise in government bond yields and commodity prices.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Recovery looks set to stay the course for year

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 31 : 24-Nov-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has gained 8.6 per cent since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. The market has not staged a similar rally since December 2015, which followed a global equities sell-down prior to the rise in US interest rates. Financial markets have already priced in the next rise in US rates, so there would seem to be few factors that could potentially stall the domestic bourse’s recent rally.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Stocks bounce back, buoyed by Trump’s fiscal optimism

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 & 34 : 11-Nov-16

The Australian sharemarket posted its largest single-day gain in more than five years on 10 November 2016, while Wall Street defied expectations of a big fall after the election of Donald Trump, finishing in the black. The Australian dollar also rallied, while local and US 10-year bond yields rose. Financial markets have scaled back the odds of a reduction in Australia’s cash rate by mid-2017, while there has been a slight easing of expectations of a rate rise in the US in December 2016.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, QIC LIMITED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

You’re fired: result shows the limits of the forecasters

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 11-Nov-16

Most public opinion polls had pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the US presidential election. Principal Global Investors’ Mark Farrington likens polling methods to the trading models used in financial market, noting that they both rely on historical predictions. In the case of Donald Trump’s election victory, and the Brexit vote earlier in 2016, traditional models did not reflect the forces that influenced voting trends. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied and bond yields rose in response to Trump’s election victory.

CORPORATES
PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, UBS O’CONNOR LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Wave of uncertainty wipes $30bn

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

The Australian dollar and the domestic sharemarket fell sharply on 9 November 2016, in response to the election of US presidential candidate Donald Trump. The S&P/ASX 200 reached an intra-day low of 5,052.1 before closing down 1.9 per cent at 5156.6. In the US, S&P 500 futures initially fell by more than five per cent, which resulted in a temporary suspension of trading. Some analysts expect "risk-off" trading to be sustained for some time, while the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US in December appears to have diminished. The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.758 in local trading, and Westpac’s Robert Rennie says it could fall below $US0.74 in the near-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Buckle up for a day of unusual volatility

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Original article by David Rogers, Andrew White, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 9-Nov-16

The US presidential election is set to dominate financial market trading on 9 November 2016. Voting trends will have emerged by the time the Australian sharemarket opens, while market volatility can be expected as exit polls are released over the course of the local trading day. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index has returned to its long-term average of 19, which suggests that financial markets do not anticipate that Donald Trump will win.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, VOTECASTR, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES), RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MONASH UNIVERSITY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, AUSDRILL LIMITED – ASX ASL

Clinton victory set to unleash a ‘wave of cash’ into global markets

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Original article by David Rogers, Glenda Korporaal, Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 8-Nov-16

The Australian sharemarket rallied on 7 November 2016, after a new FBI probe cleared US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over the use of a private email server. AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi says investors are likely to reallocate cash holdings to higher-risk assets if Clinton wins the election. Meanwhile, Paul Donovan of UBS has warned that world trade and global capital flows could be disrupted if Donald Trump becomes president.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS AG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, NZSX-50 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Credit won’t predict next crisis, but gives protection

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 7-Nov-16

Alexander Funds Management MD Chris Black notes that credit markets anticipated the global financial crisis well before equity markets. He says the GFC was primarily a credit-driven event, but this will not be the case with the next financial market crash. He adds that credit will be a safer asset class when the next financial market downturn comes. Alexander Funds has delivered a return of 16.64 per cent since it was founded as Laminar in 2009, but Black cautions that investors should not expect returns similar to those in the years immediately after the GFC.

CORPORATES
ALEXANDER FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN

Ingham shares hatch to wary IPO market

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 7-Nov-16

Inghams Group’s listing on the Australian sharemarket on 7 November is likely to be closely scrutinised by investors after the IPO had to be repriced. The stock has been issued at $A3.15 per share, compared with initial hopes of between $A3.57 to $A4.14. Bravura Solutions and the Charter Hall Long WALE REIT have also been forced to scale back the issue price of their stock. Some fund managers note that investor sentiment has changed in recent weeks, particularly with regard to IPOs.

CORPORATES
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ING, BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED – ASX BVS, CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT – ASX CLW, APOLLO TOURISM AND LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ATL, PENGANA EMERGING COMPANIES FUND, TPG CAPITAL LP, THE CARLYLE GROUP, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED, ANCHORAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ASG

ASX slips for a third day, US worry lingers

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 4-Nov-16

The S&P/ASX 200 index closed 0.1 per cent lower at 5,225.6 points on 3 November 2016. The All Ordinaries index declined 0.1 per cent to 5,306.5. Investors are concerned about the chaotic US presidential election. Shares in Warrnambool Cheese & Butter Factory rose 5.2 per cent to $A6.85 following the announcement of a profit of $A20.8 million in the six months to 30 September and a 10 per cent rise in revenue to $A325.9 million.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WARRNAMBOOL CHEESE AND BUTTER FACTORY COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX WCB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO