K: Financial and Insurance Services

Weak conditions to put a dampener on dividends

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 11-Sep-24

Australian-listed companies paid out more than $80bn worth of dividends in 2023-24, which is five per cent higher than the previous financial year. However, Ryan Felsman from CommSec warns that shareholders should expect lower dividend payouts in 2023-24. He says that energy, consumer discretionary and real estate stocks in particular are likely to deliver lower dividends in the current fiscal year. A report from CommSec has concluded that despite some headwinds, returns on Australian shares are still attractive compared with alternatives such as bank deposits, bonds and international equities.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

The $5.1 billion problem costing one in four workers

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Original article by Millie Muroi
The Age – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

The Super Members Council estimates that about 2.8 million workers were not paid their full superannuation entitlement in 2021-22, which equates to one in four workers. The underpayment totalled $5.1bn, which is around $1,800 per worker. The council says this could reduce affected employees’ retirement payouts by around $30,000; it also notes that unpaid super could force many people to delay their retirement. The council contends the federal government’s legislation requiring employers to align super contributions with their pay period rather than each quarter will help reduce underpayments; however, Labor has yet to legislate the change.

CORPORATES
SUPER MEMBERS COUNCIL

The share of mortgage holders At Risk of mortgage stress fell in July after the Stage 3 tax cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,604,000 mortgage holders (29.8%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to July 2024. This represents a decrease of 0.5% points on the June figures after the introduction of the Stage 3 tax cuts in July increased household income for millions of Australians, including many mortgage holders. The level of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is set to fall further over the next few months. However, a reduction in mortgage stress will not happen if the Reserve Bank board decides to raise interest rates at its next meeting in September. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 797,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 982,000 (18.9% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.5%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Call to simplify IPO process to revive market

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 18 : 6-Aug-24

Neil Pathak from law firm Ashurst has called for an overhaul of ASX Limited’s procedures for undertaking an IPO. He contends that the process for listing on the Australian sharemarket is too lengthy, noting that an IPO can take four months while a capital raising can be initiated and completed within two weeks. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that a total of $US372.9m has been raised via IPOs in Australia so far in 2024; this is slightly higher than the same period in 2023, but well below the 2021 figure of $US3.9bn.

CORPORATES
ASHURST AUSTRALIA, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP

Traders gird for dangerous 48 hours

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Original article by Sarah Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 31-Jul-24

Bond market pricing suggests that there is about a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the cash rate in August. The chances of a rate rise in September are now 31 per cent. Quarterly CPI data to be released on Wednesday is likely to be a key factor in the RBA’s monetary policy decision; the central bank’s preferred measure of trimmed mean inflation is tipped to ease from one per cent to 0.9 per cent. Investors will also be keenly awaiting the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, and signs that rate cuts are on its agenda in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Investors brace for bruising earnings season

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Original article by Sarah Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 30-Jul-24

Factors such as the cost-of-living crisis and high interest rates are expected to weigh on the August corporate reporting season. Macquarie has forecast a six per cent decline in earnings across the market for 2023-24, although the broker anticipates earnings growth of 10 per cent in 2024-25. Jun Bei Liu from Tribeca Investment Partners in turn expects the earnings season to be one of the softest in recent times, stating that revenue and margins are likely to have remained under pressure due to factors such as high labour costs and slowing economic growth.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD

Longo suspects ANZ broke law

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Jul-24

Australian Securities & Investments Commission chairman Joe Longo has responded to claims by ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott regarding the bank’s government bond scandal. Elliott said ANZ does not believe that there was any wrongdoing on its part, and ASIC has simply asked it to "please explain" some "unusual activity" in the bond market in April 2023. However, Longo says it is on the public record that ASIC is investigating the bond trades, adding that this means by definition that the corporate regulator suspects a breach of the law. Longo has also advised that ASIC has established a dedicated insider trading team.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

ASIC warned over ANZ-AOFM probe

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 15 & 19 : 23-Jul-24

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission is investigating allegations that ANZ traders manipulated a $14 billion placement of federal government securities in April 2023. ANZ only informed investors in May that it was facing an investigation by ASIC, but documents obtained under a Freedom of Information request show that the Australian Office of Financial Management shared over 20 documents concerning the ANZ with ASIC between Jaunary and May; one of the documents reveals that ASIC demanded information about past risk manager reports on 29 January.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

Mortgage stress increased in June, but set to ease in the months ahead after the Stage 3 tax cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Jul-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,602,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to June 2024. This represents an increase of 88,000 (+0.6%) on a month earlier, but is below the record highs reached earlier this year. The RBA left interest rates on hold during its June board meeting, and there is no RBA board meeting in July. The level of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in June is set to fall over the next few months after the Stage 3 income tax cuts were introduced from the start of July. Compared to May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases, the number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 795,000. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,016,000 (20.0% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.5%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Macquarie Bank has the wealthiest customers

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jul-24

New financial data from Roy Morgan’s Wealth Report shows that among the larger banks, Macquarie has the wealthiest customers. Macquarie customers’ net wealth per capita is a market leading $943,000. Macquarie customers have higher incomes than customers of other large banks, and they are also the most likely to own or to be paying off homes, the main source of Australians’ wealth. In second place is St George with net wealth per capita of $662,000. St George’s customers are centred in Sydney where housing prices are the highest in the country, contributing to that city having greater per capita wealth than elsewhere in Australia. In third please is Westpac, with net wealth per capita of $646,000, the highest of the top four banks. Westpac customers are more likely to own property than customers of the other top four banks. They are also older and more likely to be Baby Boomers, giving them more time to have accumulated wealth. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank has the lowest net wealth per capita of the banks reported ($474,000). Its customers are more likely to be Gen Z than customers of the other large banks. The latest data covers the 12 months to March 2024. Over this period net wealth per capita among all Australians aged 14+ stood at $503,000. Net wealth per capita is often below average among customers of the smaller regional banks and credit unions.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA