K: Financial and Insurance Services

Risk of mortgage stress unchanged in April, but set to fall in May after the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,429,000 mortgage holders (26.5%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in April 2025, unchanged from a month earlier. These figures relate to the period before last week’s interest rate cut, which is projected to reduce mortgage stress by 13,000 in May to 1,416,000 (26.3%). The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 622,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 955,000 (18.0% of mortgage holders), which is clearly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.7%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with more than 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cuts still on the way after tariff pause

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 14-May-25

IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner has described the 90-day tariff pause agreed to by the US and China as a "small step forward". However, he cautions that the significant tariffs that remain in place during the temporary truce in the trade war will still be a major challenge for US households, businesses and the broader economy. Meanwhile, financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points in September; the Reserve Bank of Australia is in turn tipped to cut the cash rate three times before the end of 2025, by 85 basis points in total.

CORPORATES
IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UMOW LAI & ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

The stocks that have ripped during Trump’s trade war

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 8-May-25

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has gained 11.4 per cent since it entered correction territory in the days after the Trump administration unveiled its tarrifs regime on 2 April. Uranium producer Boss Energy is amongst the stocks that have posted strong gains since the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcement; it has risen by more than 47 per cent since the start of April, although the stock is still 30 per cent lower than a year ago. Other strong performers include Eagers Automotive (up 24.8 per cent since the start of April), NextDC (21.2 per cent), Pro Medicus (20.6 per cent) and Lynas Rare Earths (20.5 per cent).

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, BOSS ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BOE, EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED – ASX APE, NEXTDC LIMITED – ASX NXT, PRO MEDICUS LIMITED – ASX PME, LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED – ASX LYC

Stokes slams ALP’s super tax hit

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Original article by Perry Williams, Jared Lynch, David Ross
The Australian – Page: 13 & 15 : 7-May-25

SGH Limited’s CEO Ryan Stokes has criticised the federal government’s proposal to tax the unrealised capital gains of superannuation funds. Stoke contends that while taxing profits is "entirely reasonable", taxing unrealised capital gains is dangerous and sets a far-reaching and concerning precedent, while it could also distort markets. The tax would initially apply to super accounts with a balance of more than $3m, but Stokes warns that it could potentially be extended to other asset classes. The Greens have advocated lowering the threshold to $2m, while the fact that the tax will not be indexed to inflations means that it will progressively apply to more people.

CORPORATES
SGH LIMITED – ASX SGH, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Investors pile into ASX amid Wall Street exodus

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 30-Apr-25

Australian-listed companies have benefited from a global shift of capital away from Wall Street in 2025, amid the turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies. Foreign investors owned a record 18 per cent of US stocks at the start of the year. However, Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign investors have sold $US60bn ($93.2bn) worth of US shares in recent weeks. Elise McKay from Pendal says this trend may have contributed to the S&P/ASX 20’s outperformance last week; it gained 2.5 per cent, while the benchmark ASX 200 rose by just 1.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, PENDAL GROUP LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 20 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

‘Locked in’: Westpac’s big interest rate cut call

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Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-25

Westpac’s chief economist Luci Ellis believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia is certain to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in May. She says a rate cut is likely even if inflation data for the March quarter is slightly disappointing. Ellis does not expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points in May, although she says there is the potential for a cut of 35 basis points, which would reduce the cash rate to 3.75 per cent. Ellis also expects rate cuts in both August and November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Bitcoin emerges from bear market as traders tip $US125K

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-25

The price of bitcoin rose by 12 per cent last week, compared with a 6.7 per cent gain for the Nasdaq. The cryptocurrency recorded its largest weekly rise since shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November. It subsequently peaked at around $US109,000 following his inauguration in late January, before falling sharply in response to the tariffs-induced trade war. Tony Sycamore from IG believes that bitcoin could test its record level again, adding that there is potential for it to rise to around $US125,000.

CORPORATES
IG MARKETS LIMITED, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

Risk of mortgage stress dropped for a second straight month in March after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,451,000 mortgage holders (26.5%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in March 2025. The share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in March is the lowest since June 2023, when official interest rates were also at the current level of 4.1% before a final increase later that year to a 12-year high of 4.35%. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 644,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began its cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 990,000 (18.5% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.7%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with more than 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ASX faces bear market as profit recession looms

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 23-Apr-25

The S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed more than nine per cent since reaching a record high in mid-February. MST Marquee believes that the local bourse is set for a further decline; senior research analyst Hasan Tevfik says both corporate profits and economic growth are set to fall. The general consenus of market watchers is that companies in the ASX 200 will record earnings growth of about nine per cent in 2025-26, but MST anticipates a modest earnings contraction; this in turn will result in an earnings-per-share recession. Tevfik notes that Australia has experienced a bear market in each of the last six such recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MST MARQUEE

Just four economists expect the RBA to stay pat on rates

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 16-Apr-25

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting in May, and a 34 per cent chance of a 50 basis point cut. The general consensus of economists is also that the cash rate will be eased in May; most economists had previously expected rates to remain unchanged in May, prior to the global financial market turmoil in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs war.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT