K: Financial and Insurance Services

Investors pile into ASX amid Wall Street exodus

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 30-Apr-25

Australian-listed companies have benefited from a global shift of capital away from Wall Street in 2025, amid the turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies. Foreign investors owned a record 18 per cent of US stocks at the start of the year. However, Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign investors have sold $US60bn ($93.2bn) worth of US shares in recent weeks. Elise McKay from Pendal says this trend may have contributed to the S&P/ASX 20’s outperformance last week; it gained 2.5 per cent, while the benchmark ASX 200 rose by just 1.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, PENDAL GROUP LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 20 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Bitcoin emerges from bear market as traders tip $US125K

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-25

The price of bitcoin rose by 12 per cent last week, compared with a 6.7 per cent gain for the Nasdaq. The cryptocurrency recorded its largest weekly rise since shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November. It subsequently peaked at around $US109,000 following his inauguration in late January, before falling sharply in response to the tariffs-induced trade war. Tony Sycamore from IG believes that bitcoin could test its record level again, adding that there is potential for it to rise to around $US125,000.

CORPORATES
IG MARKETS LIMITED, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

‘Locked in’: Westpac’s big interest rate cut call

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Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 23 : 29-Apr-25

Westpac’s chief economist Luci Ellis believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia is certain to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in May. She says a rate cut is likely even if inflation data for the March quarter is slightly disappointing. Ellis does not expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points in May, although she says there is the potential for a cut of 35 basis points, which would reduce the cash rate to 3.75 per cent. Ellis also expects rate cuts in both August and November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Risk of mortgage stress dropped for a second straight month in March after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,451,000 mortgage holders (26.5%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in March 2025. The share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in March is the lowest since June 2023, when official interest rates were also at the current level of 4.1% before a final increase later that year to a 12-year high of 4.35%. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 644,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began its cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 990,000 (18.5% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.7%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with more than 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ASX faces bear market as profit recession looms

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 23-Apr-25

The S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed more than nine per cent since reaching a record high in mid-February. MST Marquee believes that the local bourse is set for a further decline; senior research analyst Hasan Tevfik says both corporate profits and economic growth are set to fall. The general consenus of market watchers is that companies in the ASX 200 will record earnings growth of about nine per cent in 2025-26, but MST anticipates a modest earnings contraction; this in turn will result in an earnings-per-share recession. Tevfik notes that Australia has experienced a bear market in each of the last six such recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MST MARQUEE

Just four economists expect the RBA to stay pat on rates

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 16-Apr-25

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting in May, and a 34 per cent chance of a 50 basis point cut. The general consensus of economists is also that the cash rate will be eased in May; most economists had previously expected rates to remain unchanged in May, prior to the global financial market turmoil in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs war.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Goldman Sachs boss says chances of US recession have increased after Trump tariffs

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Original article by Kalyeena Makortoff
The Guardian – Page: Online : 15-Apr-25

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has told analysts during an earnings call to discuss its first quarter results that the bank thinks Donald Trump’s tariffs have increased the chances of a US recession. He said that the growing uncertainty over the fallout of US tariffs was making it harder for Goldman Sachs’ clients to make important business decisions, and that an escalation in the trade war poses "material risks" for US and global growth. Goldman Sachs’ first quarter results saw it record a pre-tax profit of $US5.6 billion, up eight per cent

CORPORATES

How the bond market forced Trump to retreat

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 11-Apr-25

A dramatic sell-off of US treasuries led to US President Donald Trump announcing a 90-day reprieve of reciprocal tariffs on all countries bar China, rather than the recent sell-off on Wall Street that some have suggested. The sell-off of US treasuries was attributed to global investors such as China and Japan losing faith in the US, and was compounded by hedge funds unwinding what is known as the ‘basis trade’. Despite Trump’s decision to pause his reciprocal tariffs, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says there could still be a recession in the US, with Oliver saying the significant damage that Trump has done to confidence in the US will be hard to recover.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

AusSuper’s six-day delay on cyber scam

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 2 : 9-Apr-25

The 74-year old woman who lost more than $400,000 from her AustralianSuper account when it was targeted by scammers informed the industry super fund of the fraud on 28 March. The siphoned money was channeled through five separate Commonwealth Bank of Australia accounts, but it has been revealed that AustralianSuper did not inform CBA of the fraud until 3 April. The co-ordinated cyber-attack also targeted several other major industry super funds, although AustralianSuper is the only one to have confirmed that its members have lost money. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has increased its oversight of the super industry in the wake of the cyber-attack.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTDCOMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBAAUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Medibank must release hack reports

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Original article by Angelica Snowden
The Australian – Page: 17 : 8-Apr-25

The Federal Court has ruled that Medibank’s customers should be given access to cyber-security reports that were prepared by Deloitte in the wake of the health insurer’s data breach in October 2022. Medibank had contended that the reports were subject to legal professional privilege. Justice Helen Rofe noted that Medibank had consistently stated that it would share the results of the external review, although she concluded that chairman Mike Wilkins had in fact never intended to do so. Customers who were affected by the cyber-attack are pursuing a class action against Medibank.

CORPORATES
MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED