K: Financial and Insurance Services

Lack of confidence to force RBA rate cut

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 25-Jul-19

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans now expects official interest rates to fall to a record low of 0.5 per cent by February. Evans had previously forecast that the cash rate would reach a low of 0.75 per cent in the current monetary policy easing cycle. His revised forecast was prompted by factors such as a decline in consumer confidence in the wake of the rate cuts in June and July.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS

Tough time for IPOs as investors fall quiet

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 25 : 24-Jul-19

HLB Mann Judd’s latest IPO Watch report shows that 23 companies listed on the Australian sharemarket in the first half of 2019, compared with 39 during the same period in 2018. Meanwhile, just $823m was raised via IPOs during the first half, down from $2.5bn in the previous corresponding period. Marcus Ohm of HLB does not expect IPO activity to improve during the September quarter, while he says the outlook for the final quarter of 2019 may depend on how the sharemarket performs. At present, just eight companies are seeking to list in the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
HLB MANN JUDD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Little room for error as reporting season nears

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 24-Jul-19

The consensus forecast is for S&P/ASX 200 companies outside of the resources sector to post earnings per share growth of one per cent for 2018-19. Morgans Financial expects the August 2019 reporting season to generally exceed expectations, due primarily to the fact that earnings forecasts have been downgraded so much. Andrew Tang of Morgans favours stocks such as BHP, Rio Tinto, Telstra and A2 Milk. He says Suncorp, Spark Infrastructure, Computershare and REA Group are among the stocks whose 2018-19 earnings and future guidance may disappoint the market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED – ASX A2M, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Greedy banks inhibit stimulus

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 23-Jul-19

Jonathan Mott of UBS has questioned whether the return on equity targets of Australia’s four major banks are "justifiable or sustainable". He argues that these targets could undermine the Reserve Bank’s efforts to stimulate the economy via interest rate cuts, as they reduce banks’ incentive to cut their own interest rates due to the impact on their net interest margins. The differential between the cash rate and banks’ lending rates has widened from less than two per cent prior to the global financial crisis to almost four per cent.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CANSTAR PTY LTD

Revealed – the worst default super funds

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 19-Jul-19

Industry Super Australia’s analysis of data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that Hostplus and Cbus are among the MySuper funds that have delivered the best returns over the last five years. However, Max Super is the only retail fund in ISA’s list of the 20 best-performing MySuper funds. The super funds of the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are among the MySuper funds that delivered the lowest returns over the period.

CORPORATES
INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, HOST-PLUS, CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDING UNIONS’ SUPERANNUATION FUND, MAX SUPER PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, SARGON, BLACKROCK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Job data puts rate cut expectations on hold

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 19-Jul-19

The chances of an interest rate cut in August have lengthened following the release of data showing that Australia’s official unemployment rate was steady at 5.2 per cent in June. Analysis by Westpac suggests that financial markets are pricing in a 15 per cent chance of a rate cut in August, although the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to ease monetary policy by the end of the year. The jobless rate rose from 5.19 per cent to 5.24 per cent in unrounded terms in June, while the underemployment rate fell to 8.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Mergers loom as regulator changes tactics

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd, Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 18-Jul-19

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres concedes that regulating superannuation funds is more problematic than banks, as the latter are not subject to capital requirements. Ian Fryer of Chant West says APRA will be much more proactive in regulating the super industry in the wake of its capability review, adding that increased regulatory attention may accelerate consolidation in the sector. Cbus also anticipates merger activity in the sector as underperforming funds come under greater scrutiny.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDING UNIONS’ SUPERANNUATION FUND, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Super funds post solid returns, but challenging times ahead

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 18-Jul-19

Data from Chant West shows that the median growth superannuation fund achieved a return of seven per cent in 2018-19. QSuper and UniSuper delivered the best return, at 9.9 per cent apiece, followed by Media Super and AustralianSuper with returns of 8.8 per cent and 8.7 per cent respectively. Growth funds have averaged a return of 8.8 per cent per annum over the last decade, but Ian Fryer and Mano Mhankumar of Chant West warn that the sector faces headwinds and investors should not expect such returns to be sustained. However, Fryer says it is important to note that super is a long-term investment.

CORPORATES
CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, QSUPER LIMITED, UNISUPER LIMITED, MEDIA SUPER LIMITED, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, HOST-PLUS, SUPERRATINGS PTY LTD

AMP’s credit ratings still at risk after stalled life sale

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro, James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 17-Jul-19

S&P Global has advised that AMP’s credit rating will remain on negative watch after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand imposed conditions on the sale of its life insurance business. Nicholas Yap of Nomura believes that AMP is likely to face a credit ratings downgrade at some point, citing factors such as a reduction in the value of its life business and a class action lawsuit over excessive superannuation fees. AMP shares fell 1.6 per cent to $1.78 on 16 July.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AMP LIFE LIMITED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESOLUTION LIFE GROUP LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

APRA ordered to toughen up

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 17-Jul-19

A report has concluded that an overhaul of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s internal culture and regulatory approach is needed. Former Australian Competition & Consumer Commission chairman Graeme Samuel headed the capability review, which was undertaken in the wake of the Hayne royal commission. APRA and the federal government have accepted all of the review’s recommendations, which include increased oversight of banks and superannuation funds.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION