O75 Public Administration

Middle East war could be decided by who runs out of missiles or interceptors first, analysts say

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jason Burke
The Guardian – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

Iran has launched retaliatory airstrikes against Persian Gulf nations such as Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Bahrain since the joint US-Israel attacks began. Stacie Pettyjohn, from the Center for a New American Security based in Washington, DC says the Iran conflict has become "a bit of a salvo competition", and the duration of the war may depend on the size of the combatants’ weapons arsenal. Pettyjohn adds that the extent of Iran’s stockpile is the "big unknown". Tal Inbar from the Missile Defence Advisory Alliance in turn notes that the duration of previous wars has been partly determined by the number of air defence missiles each country had.

CORPORATES
CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY, MISSILE DEFENCE ADVISORY ALLIANCE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.1 points to 77.1 driven by falling confidence about the economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1 points to 77.1 in the week to 1 March; it is now 10.6pts lower than a year ago (87.7), and 2.9pts below the 2026 weekly average of 80.0. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

War cost to Aussie hip pockets

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Mar-26

The Treasury has advised the federal government that the initial rise in oil prices following the airstrikes on Iran could increase Australia’s inflation rate by 0.15 per cent. Treasury also stated that inflation may rise by about 0.26 per cent if the conflict lasts for 18 months, and warned that any damage to gas production infrastructure in Qatar – which accounts for 20 per cent of global supply – would add to domestic inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Resources Minister Madeleine King says Australia’s gas market is in a better position to absorb the impacts of the war in the Middle East than in 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in gas prices. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the war could result in higher interest rates, noting that inflation is already elevated.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES

Trump says ‘everything’s been knocked out in Iran’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by
The New Daily – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

US President Donald Trump says Iran is "getting hit very hard" in the ongoing airstrikes targeting the Islamic regime. Trump adds that Iran’s navy, air force, air detection systems and "just about everything" else has been "knocked out" since the joint US-Israeli military action began. Trump also claims that a building where Iran’s senior clerics were meeting to elect a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been hit. Trump has suggested that the war could take four or five weeks, while a Reuters report has suggested that Israel’s campaign has been planned to last two weeks.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Immigration bar must be higher

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lachlan Leeming
The Australian – Page: 5 : 25-Feb-26

Australia’s immigration policy came under scrutiny on the first day of the Aspire conference in Sydney on Tuesday. Former prime minister Tony Abbott called for a "big reconsideration of our immigration program", arguing that the nation has "imported division" and that it is very hard for migrants to honestly subscribe to the Australian citizenship oath if they support sharia law or the leading role of the Communist Party. Former treasurer Josh Frydenberg in turn said immigration policy should be based on what is in the national interest and the "type of people we want" in Australia. Frydenberg also said it is a privilege rather than a right to come to Australia, and that this needs to be emphasised.

CORPORATES

Federal Voting Intention: L-NP Coalition support up marginally in the last week, ALP and One Nation both down slightly

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows that primary support for the L-NP Coalition is up 0.5% to 24%, the ALP is down 1% to 31% and One Nation is down 1% to 20.5%. Support for the Greens is at 12.5%, and Independents/Other Parties are up 1.5% to 12%. On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is on 54.5% (down 0.5% from the days immediately after the L-NP leadership change), ahead of the Coalition on 44.5% (up 0.5%). The distribution of preferences will be more important than ever at the next Federal Election and when preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is slightly closer than the respondent allocated preferences, with the ALP on 54% leading the L-NP Coalition on 46%. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily returned to Government with a similar majority. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,649 Australian electors from 16-22 February.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.1 points to 80.2 driven by rising confidence about the Australian economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.1 points to 80.2 in the week to 22 February; it is now 9.6pts lower than a year ago (89.8), and in line with the 2026 weekly average of 80.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence is rising in most States (including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia), but down in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 24% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (down 2ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.2% in mid-February – down 0.3% points from the month of January

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026, averaging 5.4% over the first seven weeks and were at 5.2% for the week of 16-22 February (down 0.3% points from the full month of January). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for January shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – unchanged from the prior month of December, and the equal highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since late August 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.2%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for January shows increases in Tasmania, Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria, but sharp declines in both Queensland and South Australia cancelling out the overall movement. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 3,023 Australians aged 14+ in January 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Warning Bell: focus on antisemitism first

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Dowling
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 25-Feb-26

The Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion held its first public hearing in Sydney yesterday. Royal commissioner Virginia Bell used her opening statement to disclose that the inquiry will not hear evidence from witnesses to the Bondi Beach terrorist attack or family members of victims; she contended that doing so could prejudice the criminal trial of the surviving gunman. Bell also emphasised that the inquiry will primarily focus on anti-Semitism, although she acknowledged that people of other faits and ethnic backgrounds are also subject to prejudice in Australia.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION ON ANTISEMITISM AND SOCIAL COHESION

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.49 million in January; Real Unemployment surges to 1.82 million

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-26

In January 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 149,000 to 1,818,000 (11.2% of the workforce, up 0.8%), although under-employment dropped 111,000 to 1,676,000 (down 0.8% to 10.3%). Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at a record high just above 16.2 million in January – 16,212,000 to be exact, up 115,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.6% of Australians aged 14+. Australian employment trends followed the usual workforce movements after Christmas with part-time employment down 206,000 to 5,073,000 after the end of the Christmas retailing season with many temporary jobs, and equivalent to 35.2% of employed Australians. In addition, full-time employment increased 173,000 to 9,321,000, and equivalent to 64.8% of employed Australians. This led to overall employment dropping 34,000 to 14,394,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED