O75 Public Administration

Workers pay as income taxes hit a 30-year high

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B5 : 13-May-26

The federal government’s budget includes a new and permanent income tax break for wage and salary earners. The Working Australians Tax Offset will be worth up to $250 per annum and is slated to cost about $3bn in its first full year of operation; an estimated 13.3 million workers will be entitled to the tax offset, although it will not be available until they submit tax returns for the 2027-28 financial year. Meanwhile, the budget papers show that government revenue from individuals’ income tax is forecast to exceed $382bn in 2027-28; this equates to 52 per cent of the total tax take, and it is expected to rise to 54.5 per cent by 2029-30.

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Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: Support for National-led Government and Labour-led Opposition remains tied in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-May-26

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) unchanged on 47.5%, and effectively tied with the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 48% (also unchanged). Amongst the Government support for National fell 1% to 25.5% (its lowest level of support since National was elected to Government in late 2023), support for NZ First was up 0.5% to 11.5% (its highest level of support since being elected to Government), and support for ACT increased by 0.5% to 10.5%. For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was unchanged on 34%, support for the Greens was unchanged on 11%, and support for the Maori Party was unchanged on 3%. A further 4.5% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for April would lead to the National-led Government winning 60 seats (down eight seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 60 seats (up five seats). This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 887 electors from 30 March to 26 April. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5 points to 75.5 in April.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

Youth boon in anti-Boomer push

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Original article by Grace Lagan, Isabella Freeland, Andrew Hobbs
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B9 : 13-May-26

The federal government has used its 2026 budget to announce that it will scrap negative gearing on established properties from July 2027, although the move does not apply to existing investments in such properties, or to investments in new properties. It is one of a number of tax policies announced that are seemingly aimed at making it easier for members of Generation Z to get into the property market in what has been labelled an anti-Boomer budget. However, some Gen Z members are of the view that they will struggle to save enough for a house deposit, due to the cost of living and the rising cost of houses.

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3.1pts to 64.1 after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by +0.25%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-May-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1pts to 64.1 in the week to 10 May; this is the fourth-lowest Consumer Confidence reading in the history of the index stretching back to 1972. Consumer Confidence is now 20.3pts lower than a year ago (87.5), and 5.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.3. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence dropped in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but increased slightly in Western Australia. Now just 14% of Australians (down 2ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 56% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 19% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 45% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 4% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 13% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Treasury warns of inflation at 7.25pc

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-May-26

The budget papers show that the Treasury’s base case is that the inflation rate will ease to 2.5 per cent in 2027, after peaking at a forecast five per cent in mid-2026. This is based on expectations that the price of crude oil will fall; however, the Treasury’s worst-case scenario modelling suggests that inflation will rise above seven per cent if a protracted war in the Middle East results in the crude oil price rising above $US200 a barrel in the September quarter. This would in turn reduce real GDP growth by 0.5 per cent over the next two financial years and result in an official unemployment rate of nearly five per cent in 2027-28.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$77bn tax grab

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 11 : 13-May-26

The federal government’s budget papers show that the nation’s gross debt is set to exceed $1 trillion in 2026-27, while it is forecast to peak at 35.8 per cent of GDP in 2028-29. Net debt is in turn forecast to top $616bn by mid-2027, while the budget includes net tax increases totalling $77bn. Meanwhile, the government is set to post deficits for the next decade and will not deliver a balanced budget until 2034-35, although the latter is based on expectations of higher tax revenue and projected savings from NDIS reforms. The budget also includes a productivity package for the business sector; amongst other things, the instant asset write-off will become a permanent feature of the tax system, while the loss carry back tax offset will be reinstated; however, the government now expects its productivity growth target of 1.2 per cent to be achieved three years later than expected.

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Victoria’s public service wage bill to hit $45.5bn despite job cuts

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Original article by Damon Johnston, Anthony Galloway, Lily McCaffrey
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-May-26

The Victorian government’s budget papers show that the state’s public sector wages bill is forecast to rise from $40.3bn in the current financial year to $41.1bn in 2026-27. Employee expenses are expected to keep rising over the forward estimates period, reaching $45.5bn by 2030. This is despite the government’s public service job cuts in response to a review by former bureaucrat Helen Silver; the job cuts are estimated to have contributed to government savings of about $4bn. Treasurer Jaclyn Symes says the government had been reducing non-frontline workers across the public sector, but she stresses that it is continuing to invest in essential workers such as teachers, nurses and police officers.

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VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE

Victoria’s $199bn debt bomb explosion

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Original article by Anthony Galloway, Damon Johnston, Lily McCaffrey
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 6-May-26

The Victorian government’s budget papers show that an operating surplus of $727m is expected for 2025-26. This will rise to $1bn in 2026-27, well below the forecast of $1.9bn in the mid-year budget in December. However, the 2026-27 cash deficit – which takes into account expenditure such as infrastructure projects – is slated to be $7.7bn, although the previous forecast was $9.7bn. Meanwhile, yesterday’s state includes $13.8bn worth of new spending, while net debt is forecast to reach $199.3bn in 2030. Interest payments on this debt are expected to rise from $6.8bn in 2024-25 to $11.8bn by 2029-30.

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Our tolerant country is no more

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Original article by James Dowling
The Australian – Page: 6 : 6-May-26

The Royal Commission on Anti-Semitism and Social Cohesion has heard further evidence from Jewish Australians who have been targeted due to their religion. The second day of public hearings was told that Jewish Australians have had to endure verbal abuse and death threats in public places; in one instance a victim of anti-Semitism was told by NSW police that his complaint would not be investigated because it would be a "wasted effort". The Executive Council of Australian Jewry’s co-CEO Peter Wertheim said the far right had been largely responsible for anti-Semitism in past years; however, he noted that the far left and Islamist groups have become drivers of anti-Semitism since the anti-Israel movement started to gather pace in Australia.

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AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION ON ANTISEMITISM AND SOCIAL COHESION, EXECUTIVE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIAN JEWRY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 0.6pts to 67.2 in early May before the Reserve Bank meeting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-May-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 67.2 in the week to 3 May, which is the the seventh-lowest Consumer Confidence reading of all time. Consumer Confidence is now 20.3pts lower than a year ago (87.5), and 5.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.3. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence improved in New South Wales and South Australia, but declined in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. Now just 16% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ