O75 Public Administration

Inflation Expectations in late March are at 5.1% – up slightly from the month of February (5.0%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of March 18-24. This figure is in line with the average over the last 15 weeks of surveying since early December – also of 5.1% – and up slightly from the month of February. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for February 2024 shows the measure at 5.0% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on January (5.1%). The figure of 5.0% for the month of February was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023 weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After February ended, Inflation Expectations dipped in early March, but have now recovered and have moved higher in late March. A likely driver of this week’s increase in Inflation Expectations is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,998 Australians aged 14+ in February 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Tough visa rules to ban countries

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 27-Mar-24

The House of Representatives has passed legislation that targets failed asylum-seekers who refuse to co-operate with immigration authorities regarding their removal from Australia. The legislation allows them to be jailed for up to five years and specifies that fears of persecution if they are returned to their home country will not be regarded as a reasonable excuse for their lack of co-operation. The government will also have the power to block visa applications from all citizens of countries that refuse to refuse to accept the return of failed asylum seekers. The legislation was passed with the support of the Coalition, although it has forced Labor to agree to a Senate inquiry into the bill.

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Utes win big reprieve on emissions

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Mar-24

The federal government’s revised fuel-efficiency standards for new vehicles were approved by cabinet on Monday. The changes follow consultation with the car industry, amid concerns that popular vehicles such as utes and SUVs could have been forced out of the Australian market under the original version of the National Vehicles Emissions Scheme. The scheme will impose annual emissions caps on small passenger cars and light commercial vehicles such as utes. However, heavy SUVs that use the same chassis and drivetrain as a ute will now be classified as light commercial vehicles; they were previously to have been classified as passenger vehicles, which would have attracted much stricter emissions caps.

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Labor’s Dean Winter to seek leadership after party’s election loss under Rebecca White in Tasmania

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Original article by Adam Langenberg
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 26-Mar-24

Dean Winter has indicated that he will seek the leadership of the Tasmanian Labor Party, following its loss in the state election at the weekend. The loss was the third in a row under Rebecca White, who is expected to stand down as leader. A former mayor of Kingborough, Winter entered state parliament at the 2021 election, and was convincingly re-elected on Saturday. Josh Willie, who has moved down from the Legislative Council, is regarded as the preferred candidate of the party’s dominant Left faction.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Premiers revolt over federal NDIS law, fearing cost time bomb

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Original article by David Crowe, Natassia Chrysanthos
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 26-Mar-24

The state governments are concerned that changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme will impose a huge financial burden on them. A meeting of the national cabinet in late 2024 agreed to the reforms, which will establish a new state and territory disability system to be called ‘foundational supports’; its aim is to provide services to about 2.5 million Australians with a disability who need less intense support than the NDIS, with a focus on children with autism and developmental delay. The states want the draft bill to be delayed to allow more time for consultation about the reforms.

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Labor working tails off to lift primary vote

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Mar-24

Labor won the 2022 federal election with a primary vote of just 32.6 per cent. The combined vote for the major political parties fell to a record low of 68.3 per cent; in contrast, the vote for minor parties and independents reached a record high of 31.7 per cent. There was a similar trend against the major parties in Saturday’s state election in Tasmania. However, Labor believes that its low primary vote is not permanent but reflects voters concerns about issues such as the cost of living crisis and migrant numbers. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Labor is working hard to give people the government they "need and deserve". He adds that the next election will be "close and hard fought".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Federal voting intention: Support for the ALP and L-NP Coalition is even in late March – ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Mar-24

Support for the ALP was down 1.5% to 50% in late March and is now even with the L-NP Coalition on 50% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the support of minor parties and independents required for either of the major parties to form minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. A look at the States shows the biggest swing to the Coalition was in Queensland – up by 5.5% points. The swing in Queensland came after the poor showing for the ALP at the previous week’s local government and key by-elections in the state seats of Inala (19.5% swing to LNP) and Ipswich West (17.9% swing to LNP). Primary support for the Coalition increased 1% to 38% and is now clearly ahead of the ALP on 31.5%, unchanged from a week ago. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 14% and One Nation support dropped 1% to 4.5%. Support for Independents was down 1.5% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,633 Australian electors from March 18-24. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Immigration not on target to drop

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 4 : 26-Mar-24

Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that net overseas migration totalled 548,000 in the year to September. The Coalition has questioned the federal government’s claim that its policies will reduce net overseas migration to just 375,000 in the year to June. The Coalition estimates that net overseas migration would need to be reduced by 27 per cent – or 76,600 people – in the remainder of the current financial year in order to achieve this. Former Department of Immigration bureaucrat Abul Rizvi believes that net overseas migration for 2023-24 is likely to be around 400,000 to 500,000.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ACTU’s 5pc wage push sets up showdown

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Mar-24

The ACTU will use its submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual minimum wage review to call for an above-inflation increase of five per cent. This would increase the minimum wage to $24.39 an hour, or $48,200 a year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus contends that workers on the lowest pay are hardest hit by inflation, and they need a pay rise of five per cent to make up for the real wage losses over the last several years. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry will in turn push for the minimum wage to be increased by no more than two per cent, following a large rise in both the minimum wage and award wages in 2023.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

China visit sees $105 billion iron ore exports on the brink

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Original article by Jamie Seidel
News.com.au – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Australia to hold talks aimed at removing the remaining punitive tariffs on Australian exports. Wang is also expected to push for the easing of restrictions on Chinese investment in Australia, as well as support for China’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, the talks have coincided with China’s growing push to reduce its dependence on iron ore exports from Australia. BHP CEO Mike Henry recently warned that Chinese-backed producers’ growing dominance of the nickel market could be replicated in the iron ore sector.

CORPORATES
CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP