O75 Public Administration

Fears of a slow-economy China contagion

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Aug-23

The federal government’s latest Intergenerational Report will show that Australia faces slower growth and higher taxes due to an ageing population and lower productivity. The Treasury has also forecast that quarterly economic growth will be ‘marginal’ over the next year, leaving Australia vulnerable to domestic and overseas shocks. The deteriorating Chinese economy is a key potential risk to Australia’s growth outlook, with the Chinese government appearing to be reluctant to pursue further stimulus measures at this stage. Meanwhile, Treasury officials expect the projected Budget surplus of more than $20bn for 2022-23 to be a one-off, with the prospect of deficits for at least the next decade.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Labor shuns calls for bold tax reform

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Aug-23

The federal government is expected to pursue an incremental approach to tax reform due to the perception that large-scale changes would be politically challenging. Sources have indicated that Labor will not seek major tax changes during its current term in office, and it will adopt a similar approach if it is re-elected in 2025. The government’s agenda for its current term includes changes to the petroleum resource rent tax and an increase in the tax rate for superannuation accounts exceeding $3m; however, it is believed to have ruled out changes to the company tax rate, the goods and services tax and the legislated stage-three income tax cuts. The Business Council of Australia recently called for an overhaul of the tax system.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

No legislated Voice if vote fails

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Original article by Joe Kelly, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Aug-23

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reiterated that enshrining an Indigenous Voice to parliament in the Constitution is a "modest request". He adds that the federal government will not seek to legislate a Voice to parliament if the upcoming referendum is rejected by voters, arguing that Indigenous Australians have not asked for this. Meanwhile, Indigenous leader Warren Mundine has rejected suggestions that the ‘No’ campaign is using the issue of a treaty to wage a scare campaign against the Voice. Mundine opposes the Voice but says he has been a supporter of the treaty process for more than three decades.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Premiers cool on PM’s holiday plan

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 16-Aug-23

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has emphasised that state and territory leaders will ultimately decide whether to declare a public holiday if the Matildas win the FIFA Women’s World Cup. However, South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas has indicated that he will oppose a public holiday when the national cabinet meets in Brisbane on Wednesday. He estimates that a holiday would cost the state’s economy about $18m; his government will instead provide a "lasting legacy" by investing the same amount of money into women’s sporting facilities.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, SOUTH AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, FEDERATION INTERNATIONALE DE FOOTBALL ASSOCIATION, MATILDAS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.2pts to 78.2 – as perceptions of personal finances improve

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Aug-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.2pts to 78.2 in the week to 13 August. Despite this week’s improvement, the index has now spent a record 24 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 6.2pts below the same week a year ago (84.2), and in line with the 2023 weekly average of 78.2. Consumer Confidence increased in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but it was down slightly in New South Wales. Now 21% of Australians (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 31% (up 3ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 57% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

July monthly Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 5.6% – but have now dropped to 5.2% in mid-August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Aug-23

In July 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.6% annually over the next two years, unchanged from June. This also matches the Inflation Expectations of four months ago in March 2023, but is down 0.3% points from a year ago in July 2022 (5.9%). Although Inflation Expectations have been stable over the last few months they have fallen during the early weeks of August. The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are now at 5.2% in mid-August, down for two consecutive weeks since late July – the first consecutive weekly drops in the measure since late April. The softening in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks suggest that the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in July and August may be the correct decision; however, there are still significant pressures in the economy. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,968 Australians aged 14+ in July.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA warns job market may be about to sour

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Original article by Michael Read, Tess Bennett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Aug-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for August show that it considered increasing the cash rate to 4.35 per cent. However, indications that the jobs market may at a "turning point" are among the reasons why the board opted for a second successive monthly pause. The RBA cited factors such as a small rise in the official underemployment rate, a fall in hiring intentions and improved labour availability as signs that the jobs boom may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, economists say weaker-than-expected wages growth will strengthen the case for the cash rate to remain on hold for an extended period.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

IR laws to help workers by closing loopholes

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 16-Aug-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that wages increased by 0.8 per cent in the June quarter, the same pace as the two previous quarters. Wages growth eased to 3.6 per cent in the year to June. Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke says that after 11 quarters of wages not keeping up with prices, the moderating inflation rate has caught up with wages growth. He adds that while the federal government’s first tranche of industrial relations reforms in 2022 were aimed at lifting wages across the board, the second tranche is aimed at closing loopholes that affect the wages of individual workers. Burke says the reforms will have a "very modest" economy-wide impact on wages.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS

Call for fresh Morrison probe over Robodebt

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Original article by Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 5 : 9-Aug-23

Greens MP Stephen Bates says former prime minister Scott Morrison appears to have deliberately made false statements about the robodebt scheme in order to mislead parliament. Bates contends that Morrison allowed robodebt to remain in place despite clear advice that the scheme was illegal. The Greens have introduced a motion in the lower house to refer Morrison to the privileges committee over his role in the robodebt scandal. A royal commission into the robodebt scheme made a number of adverse findings against Morrison.

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AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Labor leaders aiming for national plan to boost renters’ rights

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Original article by David Crowe
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 9-Aug-23

The upcoming national cabinet meeting in Brisbane will discuss a proposal to increase the rights of rental housing tenants. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will put the national plan to state and territory leaders next week, although each jurisdiction would ultimately determine their own rules based on a broad framework. Albanase will also seek other options for addressing the housing crisis due to a stalemate with the Greens over the federal government’s Housing Australia Future Fund.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN GREENS