O75 Public Administration

National, ACT and NZ First increase their level of support in first Roy Morgan Poll after NZ Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November 2023 shows new Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 58% support for November, up 5.2% points from the mid-October election. Support for National was virtually unchanged at 37.5%, down 0.6% points from the election, while support for ACT increased 3.9% points to 12.5% and support for NZ First was up 1.9% points to 8%. In November support for the defeated Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition was at only 36%, down 5.6% points from the election. Support for Labour dropped 5.9% points to 21% (the lowest ever recorded in a Roy Morgan Poll). However, support for the Greens increased 0.9% points to 12.5% while support for the Maori Party was down 0.6% points to 2.5%. The survey results for November would lead to 74 seats (up six seats) being won by the governing coalition, compared to only 48 seats (down seven seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 920 electors during November. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 17pts to 90.5 in November.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND

Inflation Expectations in mid-December are at 5.3% – slightly down from the month of November (5.4%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% for the week of December 11-17, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.3% and 0.1% points lower than the month of November. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for October prompted the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at their final meeting for the year in early December. A leading factor driving the decrease in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks has been the decline in the retail petrol price. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,982 Australians aged 14+ in November 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1pt to 81.8 to end 2023 at its highest since early February 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1pt to 81.8 in the week to 17 December, a second straight weekly increase to end the year at its highest since early February 2023. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 46 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence has ended 2023 only 0.7pts below the same week a year ago (82.5), and nearly 4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. The 2023 weekly average of 78.0 is a record low for the index, below the previous record low of 82.6 in 1990. Now 20% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 33% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022, just after the RBA first raised interest rates), while 33% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2023). Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobless rate fears halt RBA rate increases

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for December show that it considered whether to increase the cash rate for a second successive month. The board noted the possibility that the unemployment rate could rise higher than originally anticipated due to the central bank’s push to rein in the inflation rate. The board reiterated that it will do whatever is necessary to return inflation to its target range within a reasonable timeframe. Gareth Aird from the Commonwealth Bank expects three official interest rate cuts in 2024, beginning in September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Absolutely no political cover-up of Higgins’ alleged rape’

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Original article by Joanna Panagopoulos
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Dec-23

Bruce Lehrmann’s defamation case against the Ten Network and presenter Lisa Wilkinson continued in the Federal Court on Tuesday. Fiona Brown, the former chief of staff for senator Linda Reynolds, refuted suggestions that the alleged rape of Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins had been covered up. Brown also said Higgins had disclosed that she could remember Lehrmann being "on top of me" but had not made an allegation of rape. Wilkinson has previously told the court that she believed that Brown and Reynolds were "knowing participants in a systemic cover-up" of Higgins’ alleged rape. Lehrmann has consistently denied that he raped Higgins. The court will hear closing submissions in the case on Thursday.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Red Sea attacks risk imports, oil

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Original article by Jenny Wiggins, Jacob Greber, Sarah Jones, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Dec-23

The price of crude oil briefly rose by four per cent on Tuesday, in response to ongoing attacks on Red Sea shipping by Houthi rebels. However, the oil price retreated after oil companies indicated that they will temporarily cease using the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden corridor. Acting Opposition Leader Sussan Ley says petrol prices may rise, given that the trade route through the Red Sea is critical to oil supplies. Meanwhile, US Studies Centre CEO Mike Green has warned that the loss of access to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea will have a "very significant economic impact" on the entire Indo-Pacific region. The cost of importing goods into Australia is likely to rise, at a time when industrial action at DP World terminals is already causing delays in unloading container ships.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE, DP WORLD AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Labor plan would give home affairs minister powers over critical infrastructure during cyber-attacks

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Original article by Josh Butler
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

The federal government has released a consultation paper on proposed changes to the Security of Critical Infrastructure Act. Amongst other things, Home Affairs and Cyber Security Minister Clare O’Neil could potentially be given the power to direct providers of criticial infrastructure – such as energy or transport companies – to take certain actions in the event of a cyber attack; this could include suspending their operations for the duration of the crisis. The minister may also be given the powers to direct companies that are hit by a cyber attack to replace customers’ personal documents that have been compromised, such as passports.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

Small business lashes senators over insulting haste on IR bill

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 2 : 19-Dec-23

The Council of Small Business Organisations Australia has criticised the Senate for passing the Closing Loopholes Bill on federal parliament’s last sitting day for the year. COSBOA’s CEO Luke Achterstraat and chairman Matthew Addison have written to senators expressing their concern that the bill was passed too quickly and without consulting employers; this includes amendments that were only announced on the day the legislation was passed. COSBOA also contends that provisions of the bill that were hived off and will be voted on separately in 2024 should be abandoned.

CORPORATES
COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Troop boost but no ship to Red Sea

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Original article by Ben Packham, Cameron Stewart
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 19-Dec-23

The US government will shortly reveal details of a new multi­national task force to combat Houthi rebels’ attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The US Navy had initially asked Australia to contribute to Operation Prosperity Guardian by deploying a warship to the Red Sea; however, the US is believed to have now requested the deployment of additional Australian soldiers to the region, after the federal government indicated that the Indo-Pacific is its priority. Five members of the Australian Defence Force are currently serving with the US-led Combined Maritime Force. Shipping lanes in the Red Sea carry about 10 per cent of the world’s cargo.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE, UNITED STATES NAVY

Roy Morgan Federal voting intention poll shows two major parties dead-locked at Christmas: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Dec-23

The ALP on 50% (down 1%) is now ‘dead-locked’ with the Coalition on 50% (up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, according to the final Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention for 2023. If an election were held now we would have a hung parliament with the minor parties and independents controlling the balance of power. The primary vote of both major parties improved this week with the Coalition now on 38%, up 1% from a week ago well ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 1.5%. The Greens are down 2.5% to 11.5% and One Nation is down 0.5% to 4.5%. Support for Independents increased 1.5% to 9%, but support was down 1% to 5% for Other Parties. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,720 Australian electors from December 11-17, 2023. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine here: http://www.youtube.com/roymorganaus.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY